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Messages - RomanLegend

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1
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 18, 2017, 09:27:14 PM »
haha

2
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 18, 2017, 01:08:22 PM »
Hahaha, this from the guy with the tag line "A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men" ......curmudgeon.

Delicate opportunity costing...

What's a bottle of Ritalin going for?  It's nice that you're fascinated with your new-found toy, and all, but...  control it, will ya?  Thanks.

3
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 17, 2017, 06:25:54 PM »
Yea loss minimization first, maximizing interest rate thereafter.  Price point for the app would be very low.  I'm thinking <$35 annually or pay as you go for picks.  They would have really inexpensive packages of 'x' amount of picks to purchase.  Or some variation of that model.

We did do back testing with a good volume of loans.  I personally don't mind sharing but let me double check and get back with you.  The short story is the back testing did revise my approach a bit.  It really eliminated using loans from A1 to B3 based on the results.  This handicaps my ability to offset approaching charge offs but also reduces a large portion of the early pay off notes as well.  Delicate opportunity costing...

-Chris



What do you have in mind as far as a test that would prove your hypothesis incorrect?  If you give me something I may be able to take a look at it.
Here is an example of how Bryce did one: http://www.lendacademy.com/comparison-of-different-p2p-lending-investment-strategies/

Well, since I assume the pricing is much more efficient, I think it depends on your goal.  Your goal with the score seems to be loss minimization?  Then I'd show how that would have worked in 2015 vintages and if the impact is large enough to justify the fee a customer would have to pay.

4
Makes sense to me Sean... Unfortunately. 

I did notice that a bit with the very low A's and B's.  The only thing I've done that might ease that pain is I've done some back testing to verify that I can eliminate A1 to B2 Loans.  This reduces my early payoffs quite a bit however, it handicaps my ability to maintain my PID-esq loop where I'm combating lates & charge offs with loans that are less likely to default.  Tricky balance so far.  What I seem to be left with is a slightly higher default rate developing but reducing the overall early payoffs.  This estimates a 9.75% NAR with that higher default rate.

-Chris

5
Good comments.  I've wondered about that myself.  How come you've let your portfolio mature to 29 months?  Didn't want to add new loans any longer? 

I've noticed I needed a healthy balance of A's & B's to offset the riskier higher interest rate notes (even if I think they have a smaller chance of default vs their LC Grade).  I've started sort of a PID loop exercise where I add higher interest rates for a while, then ebb back to lower interest rates, then back to higher to keep things sort of balanced around a 9% ANAR.  As Late 1, Late 2, etc, start popping up I'll go back to lower interest rates in anticipation.  In theory, this will reduced my maximum interest ceiling however I won't lose the money I'm working to make...  I'm pretty sure this is the reason my defaults have stayed quiet thus far. 

I think your ANAR will drop once your portfolio seasons more. Mine did. I believe mine said 8%+ around that portfolio age. Now mine is down to a little over 5%. I'm at a 29 month weighted age. I have generated a negative return YTD with no end in sight. Early payoffs are the silent killer. Your good borrowers will get snatched out of your portfolio, leaving you with many borrowers who can't get more credit. Lending Club will also charge you a 1% penalty on the outstanding principal to add insult to injury. With the good notes getting refinanced away from you, you'll be left with a lot of the bad and the ugly, even if they looked good when you first bought them.

6
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 17, 2017, 01:23:52 PM »
I have looked into the competitors a bit.  Something I will do more of.  I think the main difference is that I'm just more conservative.  I've focused on not letting the bottom fallout vs trying to get the highest interest rate. 

Time is what I'm trying to take advantage of.  If my money works and makes some interest rate a loss undoes that time my money was working.  I started out saying, "ok, whatever I make, I want to keep, however little."  When I started getting a respectable interest rate while keeping the defaults low I thought I might be on to something.  I'm not necessarily trying to beat the market but if I do I'll certainly take it.  My 8.6% interest rate is good, but not glamorous by any means.

What do you have in mind as far as a test that would prove your hypothesis incorrect?  If you give me something I may be able to take a look at it.


7
Messed with me as well.  At first I would never invest in any loan with a bankruptcy or a lien, etc...  Through some of my trial and error, as well as some back testing to confirm that variable didn't seem to negatively effect my defaults.

I agree the x4 emails, per day, is a bit much but the idea initially was to compete for the best loans right when they come out.  If you message me your user name I can see if I can have them turned off for you.  Maybe send them to a folder for now so they stay out of your inbox? 

Thanks for taking a look at the software!

it's not really clear to me what your numbers are based off of and whether or not I can trust the ratings you give.

I showed you the returns.  I'm currently at 8.6% NAR fluctuated as high as 10.5% NAR.  I don't think I showed it in the video, but my defaults are less than 3%.  No real reason to trust us as we are brand new and haven't had time to give a proven track record.  But that is why it is free for now in Beta Testing.  Give it a shot, try it out.  See what you think. 

-Chris

some of the top picks I was shown were people with bankruptcies and lots of delinquencies. I always thought to avoid those people but maybe i'm wrong about that and the algorithm proves differently. Is there a way to turn off/unsubscribe from the emails? I don't see the option anywhere, it's too many emails for me right now.

8
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 17, 2017, 01:03:29 PM »
I suppose... I'm not well versed in that art, but sure.  This is just a ranking software that has worked well for me, personally.  The next step for LC Picks, if any, is to have an app on the app store.  Like any other app.  At some point we would charge for services but we are not there, not yet.

The only thing that folks on this forum can really help me out with is to view the ranked loans and tell me, with your trained eye, if you agree with the loans we are sifting out.  If you do, that is good news for me.  If you do not, then I need to dig into that a bit.

-Chris

Hahaha, that is actually pretty funny.  I actually agree with you.  You're right.

I'd agree with you even more if we were charging money, but we're not.  It is relatively easy to get people who are newer to Lending Club to try your software but their feedback is less helpful.  Just because they are still learning overall.  It is REALLY hard getting people who are affluent to LC to test something.  That is all I am really looking for here... 

Also, I wish I was a Nigerian Prince... But I'm not.  Just a dude in San Diego.

I was going to check it out.  But the more you post, the more similar you seem to a Nigerian prince.  There are some characteristics of internet marketing you want to avoid when dealing with people's finances.
Haha yes but generally scams start with a small ask and slowly work their way up. Rarely do they involve only one ask - building trust is a big part of the effectiveness of the scam.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

9
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 17, 2017, 12:58:05 PM »
Hahaha, that is actually pretty funny.  I actually agree with you.  You're right.

I'd agree with you even more if we were charging money, but we're not.  It is relatively easy to get people who are newer to Lending Club to try your software but their feedback is less helpful.  Just because they are still learning overall.  It is REALLY hard getting people who are affluent to LC to test something.  That is all I am really looking for here... 

Also, I wish I was a Nigerian Prince... But I'm not.  Just a dude in San Diego.

I was going to check it out.  But the more you post, the more similar you seem to a Nigerian prince.  There are some characteristics of internet marketing you want to avoid when dealing with people's finances.

10
Totally agree with the small data set.  Nothing I can do about that.  That was the cash I had set aside when I started just to test out my theory and I stayed with a fixed amount because at the time I wasn't sure anything I was doing was going to work.  I've also estimated that amount of loans that I will produce is ~15% of the loans dumped over the course of a year.  I will be investing more cash into the account in the near future.

I'm hoping it will be scale-able.  I think I can keep the defaults really low no matter the volume of cash invested, what I'm not as sure about is if I can keep the overall interest rate around 9 or 10%.

You should consider adding your data to the "Understanding your returns" thread and sharing more data with the group (see instructions in thread for how to do this or just copy and paste screen shots from another user). These screenshots are neat, but to really gain credibility, you need to disclose more data over time such as the average age of your portfolio, breakdown of note by term/grade, etc.

I am not necessarily questioning your method (haven't had the time to look), but everyone's portfolio looks much better early on before the natural defaults hit. The average note age in my portfolio is almost 3 years, so it's a seasoned portfolio. Also, your portfolio is quite small in dollar compared to many other posters sharing their data.

Also, how are you calculating defaults? Your screenshot shows $152 in charge-offs and $4676 in total payments, so that's a default dollar amount of 3.2%.
I'm not currently adding more accounts to the 'understanding your returns' table.  IMO, accounts like the above are just too small to prove anything. I think I saw another screen shot where it showed just over 300 notes (not sure how many are currently active).  I think you can be ultra selective and do well but it only really matters if it scales and the amount of money then makes a difference.  New algorithms and note picking takes probably 18 months to 2 years to prove anything I think. So it may take what 10 new accounts beta testing RLs method that long and in sufficient quantities to 'prove' something. JMHO

11
Fair point, I don't mind sharing.



You should consider adding your data to the "Understanding your returns" thread and sharing more data with the group (see instructions in thread for how to do this or just copy and paste screen shots from another user). These screenshots are neat, but to really gain credibility, you need to disclose more data over time such as the average age of your portfolio, breakdown of note by term/grade, etc.

I am not necessarily questioning your method (haven't had the time to look), but everyone's portfolio looks much better early on before the natural defaults hit. The average note age in my portfolio is almost 3 years, so it's a seasoned portfolio. Also, your portfolio is quite small in dollar compared to many other posters sharing their data.

Also, how are you calculating defaults? Your screenshot shows $152 in charge-offs and $4676 in total payments, so that's a default dollar amount of 3.2%.

12
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LC vs Prosper
« on: July 17, 2017, 12:17:55 AM »
Understood.  It's not even advertising, we're just giving it away.  Its hard to find people with good LC knowledge to test this out.  That's all I'm looking for.

YouTube Intro:  https://youtu.be/dIE5bVgj8eE

Register Here for FREE:  LCPicks.com

Let me know if you have any questions

Dude, we hear ya'.  Over and over we hear ya'.   This repeated redundant advertising in every discussion on the forum is getting annoying as heck.  Choose a topic and keep your advertising there.

13
Fair point, I don't mind sharing.



You should consider adding your data to the "Understanding your returns" thread and sharing more data with the group (see instructions in thread for how to do this or just copy and paste screen shots from another user). These screenshots are neat, but to really gain credibility, you need to disclose more data over time such as the average age of your portfolio, breakdown of note by term/grade, etc.

I am not necessarily questioning your method (haven't had the time to look), but everyone's portfolio looks much better early on before the natural defaults hit. The average note age in my portfolio is almost 3 years, so it's a seasoned portfolio. Also, your portfolio is quite small in dollar compared to many other posters sharing their data.

Also, how are you calculating defaults? Your screenshot shows $152 in charge-offs and $4676 in total payments, so that's a default dollar amount of 3.2%.

14
NAR is 8.58% has been as high as 10.5%.  Defaults are at ~2.9% right now. 

Here is more info for you as well.  YouTube Intro:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIE5bVgj8eE&t=3s

Register Here for FREE (we are still in Beta Testing):  LCPicks.com

Let me know if you have any questions along the way just send me a message and I'll help out.

Thanks,

-Chris


2% defaults, what is your NAR? Always up for pictures. :)
I was really interested in this thread topic when I started.  So obviously I wanted a good upside (8-10%NAR) but I really wanted a better downside, aka 0% defaults, because as long as my money was "working" for me who really cares what I make as long as it is near double digits.

So, I have been investing for about 3 years with lending club with this premise and my default rate is <2%, which I am very proud of.  So I decided to put it in algorithm form and now I am looking for beta testers to test my approach for free.  If anyone is interested message me and I'll send you the website.

Thanks!

15
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: LendingClub Browse question
« on: July 16, 2017, 06:46:50 PM »
I'm not sure you realize that practically everyone on this forum reads all the posting categories' new messages.   ;-)

Nope, didn't think about it.  Thought it'd be best to go in applicable threads.  Thanks. 

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