Author Topic: 100s of notes available again?  (Read 15485 times)

GS

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100s of notes available again?
« on: October 14, 2013, 04:41:59 PM »
Once I got fully invested, I became a less frequent browser of notes, since I only need to reinvest the payments, but the last few times I logged on, I've seen 300-500 notes available. That's quite a change from how things were a few weeks ago when logging on a random times would probably result in less than <100 notes to browse.

So what is going on lately?  Is LC posting a lot more loans recently?  Are the institutions losing interest?

mo

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2013, 05:53:40 PM »
I don't think you can draw any general conclusions based on what happens this week.  Nothing has been resolved with respect to the budget and debt ceiling yet and things could turn into a real shit show quickly if the 17th comes and goes w/o some kind of resolution to at least the debt ceiling issue.

I'm guessing many institutions are pulling back from making any additional long term commitments until this is over.  If this thing does turn into a crisis and there is some chance it could then typically people sell off assets to raise cash which in turn triggers more selling to meet margin calls etc...   In other words it is prudent to keep what ever cash you have close at hand for the moment if you anticipate the remote possibility you might need it in such a scenario.

DanB

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2013, 06:12:42 PM »
I don't think you can draw any general conclusions based on what happens this week.  Nothing has been resolved with respect to the budget and debt ceiling yet and things could turn into a real shit show quickly if the 17th comes and goes w/o some kind of resolution to at least the debt ceiling issue.

I'm guessing many institutions are pulling back from making any additional long term commitments until this is over.  If this thing does turn into a crisis and there is some chance it could then typically people sell off assets to raise cash which in turn triggers more selling to meet margin calls etc...   In other words it is prudent to keep what ever cash you have close at hand for the moment if you anticipate the remote possibility you might need it in such a scenario.

But the chance of going past the 17th without an extension, resolution (or whatever word you'd like to use) on the debt ceiling is virtually zero. The institutions all know it, we all should know it,..............so I really don't see the point of bringing it up as a legitimate possibility. Besides almost all institutions are so flush with cash or cash equivalents these days that they have contingencies for a number of improbable scenarios...............even if it all were to happen simultaneously.

nonattender

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2013, 09:28:23 PM »
I hear Thales is betting against olive branches.
A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men.

DanB

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2013, 09:46:26 PM »
I hear Thales is betting against olive branches.

Huh? Che cosa stai dicendo?

mo

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2013, 10:31:43 PM »
But the chance of going past the 17th without an extension, resolution (or whatever word you'd like to use) on the debt ceiling is virtually zero. The institutions all know it, we all should know it,..............so I really don't see the point of bringing it up as a legitimate possibility.

If you said that three weeks ago I would have agreed, now, I'm not so sure.  Most people, me among them, didn't think they would let the government shutdown happen either then it did.  Some in congress have even gone so far as to say publicly that they don't think the 17th deadline is as big of a deal as it is being made out to be.  Multiple financial institutions, Fidelity and JP Morgan, have said they've gotten rid of all their short term government debt.  I'll agree the possibility seems low but in these times I wouldn't assign a probability of zero to that outcome.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fidelity-bonds-20131009,0,3822933.story
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/08/its-terrifying-what-some-top-republicans-believe-about-the-debt-ceiling/

DanB

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2013, 10:50:32 PM »
But the chance of going past the 17th without an extension, resolution (or whatever word you'd like to use) on the debt ceiling is virtually zero. The institutions all know it, we all should know it,..............so I really don't see the point of bringing it up as a legitimate possibility.

If you said that three weeks ago I would have agreed, now, I'm not so sure.  Most people, me among them, didn't think they would let the government shutdown happen either then it did.  Some in congress have even gone so far as to say publicly that they don't think the 17th deadline is as big of a deal as it is being made out to be.  Multiple financial institutions, Fidelity and JP Morgan, have said they've gotten rid of all their short term government debt.  I'll agree the possibility seems low but in these times I wouldn't assign a probability of zero to that outcome.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fidelity-bonds-20131009,0,3822933.story
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/08/its-terrifying-what-some-top-republicans-believe-about-the-debt-ceiling/

You're right. Obviously it's not zero. So I partially retract my statement & offer my apologies. But I think we can all agree that regardless of whether some sort of deal or extension is reached prior to the 17th or on the 18th or 19th, that the bottom line is that obligations will in fact be met. Or do you disagree with that assessment? If you do disagree, then obviously we're seeing things very differently. But if you do agree that some deal will be struck this week or this weekend...............then I don't see what the intermediate or long term damage will be.

As for Fidelity & JPM getting rid of their govt paper...........Yes I did see those stories. All I can say is that institutions have a very poor record in these sort of things. How much of those actions are strategic & how much is just CYA (especially with JPM) I can't speculate. The only thing I will speculate on is that as much as we hear about "rogue" traders etc. who expose banks & brokerages to enormous losses (& wins as well), most of those guys aren't paid to be brave. Because God forbid you're the guy who held onto govt paper while others liquidated & you suffered a 1% loss. You'd be out in the streets. Besides, didn't PIMCO say that they were in fact on the other side of that trade? Not that PIMCO has a stellar record either lately! 
« Last Edit: October 14, 2013, 11:14:49 PM by DanB »

Peter

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2013, 01:58:53 PM »
Once I got fully invested, I became a less frequent browser of notes, since I only need to reinvest the payments, but the last few times I logged on, I've seen 300-500 notes available. That's quite a change from how things were a few weeks ago when logging on a random times would probably result in less than <100 notes to browse.

So what is going on lately?  Is LC posting a lot more loans recently?  Are the institutions losing interest?
Getting back to the original question, GS you are quite right there has been a large increase in available loans for retail investors recently. And yet, the number of loans added to the platform has not increased substantially. But I can also assure everyone that institutions are not losing interest. The opposite is actually true.

But Lending Club are making some adjustments here. I can't report on anything official yet, but I am chatting with Scott Sanborn on Wednesday of next week and after that I hope to have some news I can share. Stay tuned.
Publisher of the Lend Academy blog

See my returns here: http://www.lendacademy.com/returns

rlv99

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2013, 09:38:24 AM »
......there has been a large increase in available loans for retail investors recently. And yet, the number of loans added to the platform has not increased substantially.

What's wrong about the above?

Prior to the 6am PT release today, there were 400 loans already posted.  However, my 3 filters didn't find one worthy to look at!  When the new loans were posted a few minutes later, I picked up 8.  So, I can only conclude that LC is posting lower quality stuff these days probably off the release times for esoteric reasons.  Investor beware!

Show Me The $

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2013, 11:14:46 AM »
Agreed, it won't happen! no one can be that stubborn and stupid



I don't think you can draw any general conclusions based on what happens this week.  Nothing has been resolved with respect to the budget and debt ceiling yet and things could turn into a real shit show quickly if the 17th comes and goes w/o some kind of resolution to at least the debt ceiling issue.

I'm guessing many institutions are pulling back from making any additional long term commitments until this is over.  If this thing does turn into a crisis and there is some chance it could then typically people sell off assets to raise cash which in turn triggers more selling to meet margin calls etc...   In other words it is prudent to keep what ever cash you have close at hand for the moment if you anticipate the remote possibility you might need it in such a scenario.

But the chance of going past the 17th without an extension, resolution (or whatever word you'd like to use) on the debt ceiling is virtually zero. The institutions all know it, we all should know it,..............so I really don't see the point of bringing it up as a legitimate possibility. Besides almost all institutions are so flush with cash or cash equivalents these days that they have contingencies for a number of improbable scenarios...............even if it all were to happen simultaneously.

Rob L

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2013, 11:51:35 AM »
Certainly looking forward to the explanation Peter. There was a time in the recent past when the forum had a countdown to zero thread which observed the first time there were no notes available for sale on the LC platform. There have been other times when a lot of loans accumulated on the platform, but had already been through everyone's buying filters, etc. and had therefore been deemed undesirable by investors attempting to do better than random selection. I think the large numbers of loans now on the LC platform fall into this category (as pointed out by rlv99). I've continued to monitor the speed with which loans are funded at the normal 4 per day release times as a proxy for institutional buying, This is as heavy as its ever been and growing, So, I wonder what changes LC has made. I do not find myself in the camp that believes this has something to do with the latest Washington Follies show.

Rob L

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2013, 02:06:37 AM »
The explosion of 100s of available loans are A and B grades only.
This is what's on the LC platform right now (10/19/2013 02:40 am EDT):

A 145    B 279    C 15    D 1   E 1    F 0    G 5

I wonder who's going to buy all those A's and B's ?

rlv99

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2013, 01:24:46 PM »
[I wonder who's going to buy all those A's and B's ?/i]


Those A and B borrowers may have been acquired  from LC's sponsorship of an America Cup boat.   :)    As to who buys them, there is a segment of the very wealthy that likes low risk, 3-5% net returns.

core

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2013, 02:48:22 PM »
I wonder who's going to buy all those A's and B's ?

The solution to this is for LC to start a loyalty program.  For every dollar spent on A-B loans you earn a point.  Then twice a year LC hosts carnival-type events where points can be redeemed for yacht rides, lap dances from LC employees, a go at Stephanie in the dunk tank, or copies of Dan's films.  Something fun for the whole family.

mo

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Re: 100s of notes available again?
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2013, 09:06:34 PM »
I wonder who's going to buy all those A's and B's ?

Honestly because of the difficulty of getting the notes I used to like to buy I switched to a strategy of initially investing in A notes and as that money comes back to me I try to put it in the harder to get higher yielding notes.  My reasoning is that something is better than 0% or virtually zero percent in my savings account.