Author Topic: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell  (Read 25228 times)

Simon

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Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« on: October 22, 2013, 02:05:41 PM »
Is anyone else noticing a solid increase in the discount offered before late notes sell on Folio? I feel I was able to ditch these notes at 10-20% for the past year, but recently the threshold seems to have moved to a more typical 25% discount.

In this thread: http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=1629.15 core mentions his average is 29%, so maybe I've simply been lucky.

Has anybody else noticed a recent change?

Simon
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yojoakak

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2013, 02:34:29 PM »
There have been a lot of reasonably priced current notes up for sale lately. Maybe that has something to do with it?

Lovinglifestyle

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2013, 02:43:21 PM »
Yes.  I've had to discount my graces the same as my 16d lates to get them sold.  Otherwise they just sit there and go to 16d late anyway. 

So many are in grace that I stopped listing them a few days ago.  If I have to discount them that much anyway, it doesn't make sense to not wait for the 16 status, because so many of the graces make payments before that.  I'd be losing a lot unnecessarily, early on.  On the other hand, if I run across a grace that looks awful I make the cut and consider it as "stupid tax" for having bought it in the first place.

I like to do manual selections (after filtering) but selling seems to take on a life of its own.  Recently, if it's still in my open sell order box my attitude is that the price isn't right yet. If payments haven't posted for a couple of days I figure maybe people are fully invested (out of money) so I'll wait until posting resumes before repricing.

P.S.  I stopped listing currents too.  Have to discount too much if they aren't perfect.  Might as well wait.

NJG has been helpful to me in getting my attitude adjusted.  At the rate I'm going, since I don't like most of the new notes and 60% of what I do like doesn't issue, Folio gives me something to do.  The number of notes in my portfolio is decreasing.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2013, 05:16:08 PM »
Simon.....this entire month has been real flakey on my end.  At best, I'm doing just "Okay", but it's my worst month since the crash of March/April. 

The only thing I'm selling quickly are my late notes gone "Current" at a 10% discount.

Everything else has bogged down regardless the discount.  "Grace", "Late", it doesn't matter.

It's an up-down market, just like any other security. It will change, you just gotta hang in there.

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core

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2013, 06:36:57 PM »
I agree with everything said here so far.  I'm having to discount current notes just as much as I used to discount in grace notes.  So far this is turning out to be one of my worst months ever, even worse than the March/April event NJG mentioned.   I have no doubt that things will change, they always do.  The only question is when.  It could be a long ride.

Now would be an excellent time for buy & holdies to get into Folio buying.  Being able to grab current notes at a 10% discount is an excellent way to boost your returns even if you never intend to sell a single note or be an active buyer.  The blue light is flashing!  Let's not have any in-store riots.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2013, 06:46:22 PM »
"The only question is when"

The nice thing about Folio is that "When" could be any minute from now.

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DanB

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2013, 09:50:14 PM »
I agree with everything said here so far.  I'm having to discount current notes just as much as I used to discount in grace notes.  So far this is turning out to be one of my worst months ever, even worse than the March/April event NJG mentioned.   I have no doubt that things will change, they always do.  The only question is when.  It could be a long ride.

Now would be an excellent time for buy & holdies to get into Folio buying.  Being able to grab current notes at a 10% discount is an excellent way to boost your returns even if you never intend to sell a single note or be an active buyer.  The blue light is flashing! Let's not have any in-store riots.


In other words this would be a good time for buy & holdies to help extract NJG, & Core the admitted white collar criminal, from positions they no longer care to be in (i.e. their inability to unload notes they need to unload or notes they paid too much in hopes of flipping for a quick profit) So sure this may be a good time to buy, but just remember that the aforementioned individuals & others of their ilk have been making profits off your collective backs all this time. Wouldn't it be interesting to keep your hand off that trigger a while longer & buy when they get really desperate to sell & the discounts go from 10% to 15% or more.? You'd make an even greater return then.

They "need" to sell soon, you don't need to buy soon. Never forget that Folio is essentially a zero sum game................ you can bet they never forget. No need to thank me. After all, I'm here to "protect". 

core

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2013, 11:04:51 PM »
After all, I'm here to "protect".

You are here to cause trouble!  And now, it seems, to manipulate the market too.  I suspect that this "protection" comes with a fee.  Even if it isn't always immediately apparent.

Readers must take great care to filter anything that DanB says because he wouldn't consume his time writing if he wasn't making a buck doing so.  Let us ponder what Dan might have to gain by driving market prices into the toilet.  Dan has always said that the publicly displayed collection log is less than accurate.  I wonder how he knows this?  If Dan were able to drive market prices down, he would be able to purchase notes on the cheap.  But the kicker is he'd only purchase notes that he knew were of good quality by looking at the real collection log, the one that we don't have access to.

The other possibility is that Dan has been sent here to tank the market so LC can buy up the notes at outrageous discounts, retiring the note debt but holding onto the borrower member loans.  These could be repackaged and reissued as new notes afterwards to transfer the risk.

Those are but two scenarios.  I have more, some even more sinister, but I will keep them to myself lest my sanity once again be questioned.

New Jersey Guy

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2013, 11:51:58 PM »
"So sure this may be a good time to buy, but just remember that the aforementioned individuals & others of their ilk have been making profits off your collective backs all this time."


Dan, give me a list of the notes that you've either bought off me, or, notes I've purchased off of you.  I'm curious to see what profits I've made off you're collective back 

".... others of their ilk...."   Who talks like that?
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DanB

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2013, 12:39:42 AM »
"So sure this may be a good time to buy, but just remember that the aforementioned individuals & others of their ilk have been making profits off your collective backs all this time."


Dan, give me a list of the notes that you've either bought off me, or, notes I've purchased off of you.  I'm curious to see what profits I've made off you're collective back 

".... others of their ilk...."   Who talks like that?

Not off my back. I was addressing the people. Off of their backs. I'm looking out for their interests, not mine. Ask Core, I can be a very generous person.
My apologies. Again, English isn't my first language. Perhaps you would like to discuss this in my first language. Or my third language & see how you come across.  :)

core

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2013, 01:26:06 AM »
".... others of their ilk...."   Who talks like that?

Someone who learned English from supervillain comic books in their early years (and now fancies himself as the sole occupant of some kind of Legion of Doom floor), and expanded his mastery of the language by watching the trash talk between pro wrestling matches just might talk like that.  As for why Dan does, you got me.  Probably to get a rise out of you.

Simon

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2013, 01:51:44 AM »
It's an up-down market, just like any other security. It will change, you just gotta hang in there.

I'm so curious what factors cause these fluctuations. Any guesses?
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core

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2013, 02:53:13 AM »
I'm so curious what factors cause these fluctuations. Any guesses?

There was that mysterious surplus of new notes on the primary platform starting about 1 month ago as I recall (#1 reason IMHO), and then we had this government shutdown and debt limit deal which could have scared some people away.  All it takes is a little nudge, because once the price slide starts it's a race to the bottom.  Also it seems like the wise guys are selling notes in volume these days.

DanB

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2013, 02:53:40 AM »
After all, I'm here to "protect".

You are here to cause trouble!  And now, it seems, to manipulate the market too.  I suspect that this "protection" comes with a fee.  Even if it isn't always immediately apparent.

Readers must take great care to filter anything that DanB says because he wouldn't consume his time writing if he wasn't making a buck doing so.  Let us ponder what Dan might have to gain by driving market prices into the toilet.  Dan has always said that the publicly displayed collection log is less than accurate.  I wonder how he knows this?  If Dan were able to drive market prices down, he would be able to purchase notes on the cheap.  But the kicker is he'd only purchase notes that he knew were of good quality by looking at the real collection log, the one that we don't have access to.

The other possibility is that Dan has been sent here to tank the market so LC can buy up the notes at outrageous discounts, retiring the note debt but holding onto the borrower member loans.  These could be repackaged and reissued as new notes afterwards to transfer the risk.

Those are but two scenarios.  I have more, some even more sinister, but I will keep them to myself lest my sanity once again be questioned.

I find it interesting that encouraging people to buy notes at a certain discount is fine.................but encouraging people to buy at a somewhat deeper discount & thereby saving themselves money & giving them a higher profit potential, is called market manipulation.

There is no conspiracy here, there is no grand master plan, no secret access to files, no secret offices................there's just you with your all consuming paranoia & me watching the market turn against you for a little while.

I no longer "question" your sanity. I've already decided. But seriously, I think I'm done "enabling" your paranoia for at least a little while.

« Last Edit: October 23, 2013, 02:55:18 AM by DanB »

New Jersey Guy

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Re: Grace-Period notes seem harder to sell
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2013, 10:20:07 AM »
"but encouraging people to buy at a somewhat deeper discount & thereby saving themselves money & giving them a higher profit potential, is called market manipulation. "

That makes absolutely no sense at all!

First off, who encourages whom?  We are not talking Ebay here!  I can't write a description making my note stand out differently from the next guy.  As a matter of fact, when I list a note on Folio, the format is identical to the thousands next to it.

Let's assume Simon has a note in his portfolio that goes 45 days late.  He decides it has become a boat anchor and wants it gone.  He put it up on Folio at a 55% discount.  I see some merit in this note and I buy it.

So according to you, due to the fact I bought the late note, Simon most likely took a loss and that's my fault, right? 

Now, 45-days later, I fail to sell the note, and I list it on Folio at a 90% discount and somebody else buys it.  Obviously, I lost money.  So that would be Simon's fault because he encouraged me to buy it at the 55% discount?  Or, am I manipulating the market because I sold it at such a deep discount?

Wait!  I take the risk on that note for 45-days and it goes "Current".  I list it on Folio at my usual 10% discount. (In reality, 10% off a "Current" note is actually a deep discount.)  Somebody else sees the merit in this note and buys it.  Now, I'm the bad guy because I assumed the risk and ended up making money by encouraging somebody else to buy the note.  How do I know that the guy didn't buy it with the intent of reselling it at a 3% markup?  So maybe he's the bad guy?  Or perhaps Simon is the bad guy.  If he would have never put the note up for sale to start with and encouraged me to buy it, none of this would have happened.

I'm confused.  Who's the thief here?
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