Author Topic: Buyers Market  (Read 12335 times)

Coop

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Buyers Market
« on: January 10, 2014, 05:28:26 PM »
Pretty new to p2p investing but I'm hooked. Been stalking the forums for a couple of months and only investing for couple months.
Seems like Folio is quite the buyers market right now. Is this common? maybe seasonal? I've been able to pick up much better notes on Folio now than I can on LC and most of them are discounted or at par. What has your experiences been? If this continues I might skip frantically searching LC 4 times a day.
Whenever someone says "I'm not book smart, but I'm street smart", all I hear is "I'm not real smart, but I'm imaginary smart".

core

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2014, 01:06:59 AM »
Folio has always been a better place to buy notes in my opinion.  Even if you limit yourself to par value or better.  It may or may not be turning towards an even better buyers market just recently, but even without seasonal differences it's always a better place to find quality notes. 

I have never understood why people insist on participating in the 4x daily rat race.  Besides psychological issues, the only answer I can come up with is that people's usual filters and tools do not work the same for Folio and they are unwilling to do anything different from what they've always done.  They'd rather set their alarm clocks each day for eternity than spend some time learning something new.

Rob L

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2014, 10:08:35 AM »
I have never understood why people insist on participating in the 4x daily rat race.
Of course (as you well know) we IRA pariahs are prohibited from buying or selling on folio, thus doomed to ratdom.

core

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2014, 10:24:24 AM »
Of course (as you well know) we IRA pariahs are prohibited from buying or selling on folio, thus doomed to ratdom.

No, senator, I have no idea what you are talking about.  Purchasing Folio notes works just fine in IRAs.  Let us not be spreading any nasty rumors.  I'm going to make a staggering amount of tax free profits and will deny ever hearing anything about this.  Then I'm going to trade out my Roth notes for bitcoins and come out squeaky clean.

Randawl

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2014, 10:26:49 AM »
Folio has always been a better place to buy notes in my opinion.  Even if you limit yourself to par value or better.  It may or may not be turning towards an even better buyers market just recently, but even without seasonal differences it's always a better place to find quality notes. 

I have never understood why people insist on participating in the 4x daily rat race.  Besides psychological issues, the only answer I can come up with is that people's usual filters and tools do not work the same for Folio and they are unwilling to do anything different from what they've always done.  They'd rather set their alarm clocks each day for eternity than spend some time learning something new.

As compared to Folio use alone, I make more money being an originator and an active Folio user.  Especially with the current supply and demand regarding "good" notes.

cnmor54

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2014, 10:40:53 AM »
As compared to Folio use alone, I make more money being an originator and an active Folio user.

It's taken me 6 months to figure it out but this is my strategy going forward.

Coop

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2014, 01:24:51 PM »
As compared to Folio use alone, I make more money being an originator and an active Folio user.

It's taken me 6 months to figure it out but this is my strategy going forward.

I assume you mean buying notes on LC to resell on folio when you say being a originator. I have all my new LC notes listed on folio for a 4% premium, all C-G stuff but don't seem to get any bites. What kind of premium are you selling at? Mine are all unseasoned freshly issued notes. Do I need to wait for a few months of payment history before trying to get a premium on folio? I invested in all these notes with a buy hold strategy but if I could sell them at a profit I'm all for it.
Whenever someone says "I'm not book smart, but I'm street smart", all I hear is "I'm not real smart, but I'm imaginary smart".

core

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2014, 01:35:26 PM »
I have all my new LC notes listed on folio for a 4% premium, all C-G stuff but don't seem to get any bites. What kind of premium are you selling at? Mine are all unseasoned freshly issued notes.

Brand new notes I'm lucky to get +1% premium for them.  Maybe cnmor54 does better.  Some of mine I have to go down to -3% to get them sold.  Then take into account your 1% commissions and I don't see any way to make a killing on freshly issued notes.  Maybe I'm missing something.  I suppose you could buy credit card consolidation notes and hope for the green arrow when FICOs update near the end of the month.  If anyone's making risk-free profit on new issued notes I'd love to hear it.

Coop

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2014, 01:41:24 PM »
  If anyone's making risk-free profit on new issued notes I'd love to hear it.
[/quote]

Same here. I assume that's what Randawl might by making money as an originator but maybe I misunderstood. Like I said my LC notes were all intended as buy hold but if I can turn any quick risk free profit I'm all about it.
Whenever someone says "I'm not book smart, but I'm street smart", all I hear is "I'm not real smart, but I'm imaginary smart".

cnmor54

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2014, 02:30:39 PM »
I have only started selling newly issued since 12/31/13. I have only sold 7 but they have all been at an easy (but never ever risk free) profit.

I never buy notes on LC just to sell on Folio. When I first started p2p, I was thrilled with the prospect of 6% return. I live very inexpensively and that is a lot to me. I spent time reading everything I could find and realized that to get 6% over the long run you have to buy 10-12% loans. Then I realized how much time I was spending on this and have since set my goal at 15% return. (I want to get satellite TV and take my dog to the groomers twice a year.) I started selling off my lower grades and invested in the riskier notes. Being OCD and thanks to the wonderful person that created the LCAC script, I keep detailed notes of my different strategies.

As someone else said in another thread today, as payments increase the interest decreases. I noticed that my effective interest rate was going up when I sold more loans. So now I sell all my notes. I don't charge much. Just enough to keep the interest rate up and help off set the defaults.

Now I also buy notes on folio for a discount and attempt to make 'a killing' but that's only after reading these forums, eating goldfish crackers, drinking wine and taking my medications. Strictly for entertainment purposes.  8)

core

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2014, 02:45:05 PM »
I have only started selling newly issued since 12/31/13. I have only sold 7 but they have all been at an easy (but never ever risk free) profit.

If you buy a box full of 100 old coins that you don't know much about for $100, then let a collector pick them over and buy 7 of them at $1.10 each, did you really make anything?  Maybe, maybe not.  You won't find out until you sell them all.

Just something to think about.

cnmor54

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2014, 03:08:12 PM »
But most of the other 93 will bring in interest and principle until I sell them.  Except for the few I am buying on BlueVestment all my loans are hand picked by me. There not just any old box of coins (like LC Prime would be). Once loans are in my cart the final filter is the title. If medical, IRS, business, help, or anything religious is in the title, I click delete.

Coop

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2014, 03:11:09 PM »
Good analogy Core!

Cnmor54 has a valid point in regards to the effect of the interest rate going down. Obviously you're taking a higher risk early on so the reward(interest rate) is greater. So wouldn't it make sense to try to sell all your well performing notes at par or a slight discount with 6 or so payments left. I would believe people would snatch them up as they are seasoned and you'd get out of the loan as the interest portion decreases. Just a thought.
Whenever someone says "I'm not book smart, but I'm street smart", all I hear is "I'm not real smart, but I'm imaginary smart".

cnmor54

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2014, 03:34:23 PM »
Why not sell it when it has 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 payments? Take the rewards and reinvest in new risk. Why sell anything at par or below unless it's a thorn to you? You have 300 days to sell a loan before it hits 12 payments (fuzzy math=LC math). It sells when it sells.

Coop

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Re: Buyers Market
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2014, 03:56:15 PM »
I'm all far listing all my notes on folio at all times for a nice premium but what I'm saying is once notes are down to the last 6 payments or so doesn't it make sense to dump them at par or a slight discount to sell quick and reinvest since those last few payments will be heavy in principal and light on interest?
Whenever someone says "I'm not book smart, but I'm street smart", all I hear is "I'm not real smart, but I'm imaginary smart".