Author Topic: P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount  (Read 4256 times)

viking

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 370
    • View Profile
    • Email
P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount
« on: August 15, 2014, 05:21:30 PM »
I am a bit surprised that the Profit Maximizer (top 5%; D-F) picks some loans with recent (e.g. <= 24 months) "Months Since Last Major Derogatory" or loans with several thousand $ (e.g. $6K) in current "Delinquent Amount".

I would expect that those borrowers would not be as reliable as others?
Is it possible to automatically filter out those loans somehow?
I haven't tried BlueVestment yet, but can a filter be applied to P2P picks?

brycemason

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 801
    • View Profile
    • P2P-Picks.com
    • Email
Re: P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2014, 05:27:22 PM »
You can make any extra filter that you like on BV, if these bother you.

I have tested whether months since last major derogatory makes any difference above and beyond my standard correlates and it has not.

I cannot test current delinquencies as that data is not provided historically. In fact, LC only started showing it recently. I have to presume that the distribution of people we see today with these characteristics is similar to what it was in the past when we were blind to it. I do not let it bother me, even if there is some face validity to the idea that they might be higher risks. When the data comes in, I will adjust if necessary.

brother7

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 130
  • Aloha!
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2014, 06:40:54 PM »
Is it possible to automatically filter out those loans somehow?
I haven't tried BlueVestment yet, but can a filter be applied to P2P picks?
I don't believe you can stack filters like that using BlueVestment or any other service as far as I know.

Bryce's risk model is based on statistical analysis of the historical data to identify factors that predict loss. Certainly, there will be outliers and you can go batty trying to analyze and explain them away. Applied to the aggregate pool of loans, I trust his model and will let the law of large numbers handle the outliers.

brycemason

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 801
    • View Profile
    • P2P-Picks.com
    • Email
Re: P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2014, 11:52:26 PM »
You can definitely combine my publication with additional filters on BlueVestment. I set up a friend that way (targeting D & E paper).

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2756
    • View Profile
Re: P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2014, 12:37:23 AM »
You can definitely combine my publication with additional filters on BlueVestment. I set up a friend that way (targeting D & E paper).
Yea, but BV has limited filters that can be put on top.  It allows interst rate, grade, inquiries, employment, and term

brycemason

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 801
    • View Profile
    • P2P-Picks.com
    • Email
Re: P2P picks with recent Major Derogatory or Delinquent Amount
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2014, 12:08:00 PM »
Perhaps Nathan will adjust it.