Author Topic: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?  (Read 14443 times)

DanB

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Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« on: September 02, 2014, 04:51:22 PM »
So is it true that Lending Club actually had a decline in volume back in June? It's first decline after 39 consecutive months of volume increases?  I heard about it a few weeks back, but thought that it couldn't possibly even remotely be true, since something newsworthy like that would have surely been reported immediately on this site by our non investigative reporter/ party planner blog owner.

I'm sorry, I'm being abrasive again. I will excuse myself now before someone here offers me a Kool-Aid :)
« Last Edit: September 02, 2014, 11:15:04 PM by DanB »

rawraw

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 05:45:27 PM »
Wait . . . did the volume decline?

And DanB, you sure like stirring the pot ha ha

core

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2014, 06:55:29 PM »
Of course the volume had to decline in June, Dan.  This says nothing about Lending Club's inept management; there was simply nowhere else for it to go but down, because the interest in MH370's disappearance was waning by May.

When the Boeing 777 disappeared in March, Lending Club took advantage of the deaths of 239 people by running ads on the major news channels.  The results exceeded their wildest expectations and they were knocking it out of the park March-April.  But even the greatest aviation mystery of all time only captivates people so long, given that the average person's attention span these days is that of a gnat.  There was no way, short of a miracle or another air disaster, that the numbers could be sustained through June.

I'm going to give Lending Club the benefit of the doubt here and say that they "probably" had nothing to do with MH370's disappearance, even though they cashed in big time.  Just in the right place at the right time, yeah that's the ticket.  And now Malaysian Airlines loses another one, MH17 shot down supposedly by the "Russians".  Is someone trying to recapture past glory?  I don't know, but looking over the LC roster they have quite a few employees from "odd" places all over the world.  Based on their photos many of them seem to be screwballs, and from their resumes I can't see any special talents... certainly no talents that you couldn't get right here in the USA from a non-commie American.  Either these employees were cheap or they had "connections" that Lending Club wanted.

DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2014, 07:59:26 PM »
Uh-huh. Though we can all agree that Core does have his lucid & intelligent days, today appears to be one of those other days. Please Core I'm begging you not to help me on this thread.   
« Last Edit: September 02, 2014, 09:23:16 PM by DanB »

core

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2014, 08:14:59 PM »
Yeah and I'm even sober today Dan.  Disbelief of the reasons aside, the point remains: the volume had to go down because it had skyrocketed to unsustainable levels.

DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2014, 09:22:47 PM »
Wait . . . did the volume decline?

And DanB, you sure like stirring the pot ha ha

So you knew about this & said nothing?
Besides, a pot needs to be stirred in order to make sure there's no obscured unpleasant items in there. Otherwise sheeple will often unquestioningly consume anything they're given by the non investigative journalists, cheerleaders, yes men, industry mouthpieces etc. etc.

Who knows, maybe stirring the pot has saved some people from succumbing to IPO mania.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2014, 09:24:59 PM by DanB »

rawraw

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2014, 04:15:51 AM »
Wait . . . did the volume decline?

And DanB, you sure like stirring the pot ha ha

So you knew about this & said nothing?
Besides, a pot needs to be stirred in order to make sure there's no obscured unpleasant items in there. Otherwise sheeple will often unquestioningly consume anything they're given by the non investigative journalists, cheerleaders, yes men, industry mouthpieces etc. etc.

Who knows, maybe stirring the pot has saved some people from succumbing to IPO mania.
No, I didn't know.  I was just surprised no one else had mentioned it

Victor

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2014, 09:40:45 PM »
I noticed another sharp decline in available loans but missed the boat on the volume decline.  Could these declines be related to the impending IPO and a planned (required) reduction in marketing (self-promotion) to potential borrowers in an effort to avoid running afoul of the SEC in some way?

BruiserB

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Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2014, 10:18:10 PM »
So where is it documented that there was a decline?  Not saying there wasn't, just wondering if this is fact or conjecture?  I know LC doesn't release monthly figures any longer and it has been pretty clear that they manipulate volume by controlling loan issues near the end of months. 

I don't think anyone here is unwilling to listen to negatives about the P2P lenders, but I don't really feel like playing guessing games to figure it out.  If you know something about the volume, tell us, don't taunt us.

I've been unhappy with many of LC's recent changes, but so far none of them have convinced me that I should be moving funds elsewhere. I did actually open a Prosper account, but didn't fund it yet as I'm not convinced things are better over there. I do also appreciate that Lending Club has a business to run, so even if I don't like some of the changes, if they make the business and the platform healthier and more financially stable, then I understand that.  However, if they begin to erode investor performance and can't achieve acceptable financial results, then I want to know about that as well.  It's possible to be direct with bad news without playing games or insulting people with differing opinions.


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DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2014, 10:23:29 PM »
I noticed another sharp decline in available loans but missed the boat on the volume decline.  Could these declines be related to the impending IPO and a planned (required) reduction in marketing (self-promotion) to potential borrowers in an effort to avoid running afoul of the SEC in some way?

I'm no SEC or IPO expert, but I seriously doubt it. Regardless, I like how you're thinking out of the box. I've not heard that interpretation before.

Fred93

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2014, 10:27:14 PM »
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M
Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.


DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2014, 10:35:58 PM »
So where is it documented that there was a decline?  Not saying there wasn't, just wondering if this is fact or conjecture?  I know LC doesn't release monthly figures any longer and it has been pretty clear that they manipulate volume by controlling loan issues near the end of months. 

I don't think anyone here is unwilling to listen to negatives about the P2P lenders, but I don't really feel like playing guessing games to figure it out.  If you know something about the volume, tell us, don't taunt us.

I've been unhappy with many of LC's recent changes, but so far none of them have convinced me that I should be moving funds elsewhere. I did actually open a Prosper account, but didn't fund it yet as I'm not convinced things are better over there. I do also appreciate that Lending Club has a business to run, so even if I don't like some of the changes, if they make the business and the platform healthier and more financially stable, then I understand that.  However, if they begin to erode investor performance and can't achieve acceptable financial results, then I want to know about that as well.  It's possible to be direct with bad news without playing games or insulting people with differing opinions.


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Fair enough. So don't play. Perhaps there are others who would enjoy a guessing game & trying to figure things out without being spoon fed an answer right away. Besides, my thread, my rules.
Who exactly have I insulted?
 

Fred

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2014, 12:01:37 AM »
I noticed another sharp decline in available loans but missed the boat on the volume decline.  Could these declines be related to the impending IPO and a planned (required) reduction in marketing (self-promotion) to potential borrowers in an effort to avoid running afoul of the SEC in some way?

It's called the "Quiet Period", which extends from the time a company files a registration statement with the SEC until SEC declares the registration statement "effective." Securities laws limit what information a company can release to the public during this period, to avoid "gun-jumping."  http://www.sec.gov/answers/quiet.htm

However, the decline was not related to the Quiet Period because it was before the registration.

DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2014, 12:03:49 AM »
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M
Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

I do find it a bit interesting that this decline occurred a mere 2 months after LC decided to stop providing monthly numbers................something that they had been doing faithfully since their very inception back in 2007. But hey I'm sure the timing of it all was just a coincidence. :)

I don't believe I suggested that the trend wasn't up.  I suggested that the lack of any mention in the main blog area was, shall we say, perplexing considering the mission statement of this blog, which is to teach the public about p2p & provide timely industry news. So is it both good & bad news that is reported here or just the good news?

Is it even necessary to argue that a monthly volume decline after 39 consecutive month to month volume increases should certainly be considered "newsworthy" enough for mention around here? ................. especially when you consider that for 39 consecutive months every single volume increase was considered newsworthy enough to be reported quite prominently?

So all this leaves me with just one question.  Considering that this info has been out for around 6 weeks now, was blog owner Peter just not aware of the volume decline................or did he just decide not to report it for some reason?






                           

rawraw

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2014, 07:32:19 AM »
I love Peter, mainly because he strikes me as a very upbeat/optimistic guy.  And despite me being a negative Nancy about risk here from time to time, he has always been welcoming to me.  So try to lighten up on the guy himself -- but I do agree it is really strange to tout volume increase every month and then ignore the first one to decline.

I've commented once to Peter on his blog that he needs to avoid Lendit and the forum just being a sales pitch for P2P.  The problem is  putting a bunch of optimists in the room about finance can quickly lead to disaster.