Author Topic: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?  (Read 15150 times)

core

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2014, 09:11:02 AM »
I've commented once to Peter on his blog that he needs to avoid Lendit and the forum just being a sales pitch for P2P.

Come now, Rawraw.  There is absolutely no danger of this forum being a sales pitch for "just" P2P.  Because it's also a sales pitch for 3rd party tools, other people's half-baked blogs, software development and "consulting" services, $2k-a-plate hogwash conferences (which are in turn just more marketing), ebooks, startup hedge funds, bitcoin payday loans, automated S&P 500 investing schemes, and whatever else I've left out.

The only winners in this game were the people who were selling something to the fools who were trying to make a return on their money via P2P.  You know, the whole intended purpose?  Remember that?
« Last Edit: September 04, 2014, 09:28:05 AM by core »

rawraw

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2014, 09:15:44 AM »
Ha ha Core, while you have a point I think you are reaching

BruiserB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2014, 09:46:38 AM »
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M
Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

Thanks for this Fred93!  Interesting.  I take it these monthly numbers are dug out from the data and not released in monthly total by Lending Club?  My understanding was that Lending Club would only release quarterly numbers (though we can certainly mine the data ourselves for the monthly ones).

The reason I ask is that seeing this makes me wonder if Lending Club was simply "managing" business at the end of the quarter and held back to push more business into July (and thus the 3rd Quarter)??  When they reported monthly numbers, we could see the volume management on a monthly basis, with fewer loans issued in the last 10 days of the month and then a spike at the beginning of the next month.  Now that they are reporting quarterly, are they doing this on a quarter by quarter basis?  Did 2nd Quarter still set a record?  Could they have been pushing end of June business into July to try to ensure that 3rd Quarter is another record?  I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm just asking if it's a possible explanation?  I'm sure Lending Club will want 3rd Quarter to be stellar as it will be right before the IPO.

So the real question is whether Lending Club has, in fact, stumbled a bit, or if they are actively managing quarterly business before the IPO?  We won't know until the 3rd Quarter numbers are released, and I hope we have a good discussion about them at that time!


BruiserB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #18 on: September 04, 2014, 10:06:26 AM »


Fair enough. So don't play. Perhaps there are others who would enjoy a guessing game & trying to figure things out without being spoon fed an answer right away. Besides, my thread, my rules.
Who exactly have I insulted?

And fair enough to you as well.

I would count myself as someone who would prefer an open discussion and not games of hide and seek with the facts.  I don't mind some playful banter, but if there is material news, I would like to see it discussed.

And I do apologize for insinuating that you have insulted anyone.  That comment was meant more as a response to comments made about Peter's moderation of the boards.  I haven't personally seen him shut down any conversation critical of Lending Club or P2P in general.  While he may personally mostly write positively about the industry, I haven't seen him as defensive or censoring of others who have been negative or questioning.  He seems to have recused himself from posting at all other than the weekly summaries of news he posts on Saturdays; That seems appropriate given the fact that he is now also involved in LendAcademy Investments.  At the time his new venture was announced he did acknowledge that he will do as best as he could to walk the appropriate line.  I have only seen him step in when comments became insulting to other individuals.

I am glad to have the participation of both you and core in the forums.  We need your insights and and analysis.  Please be patient and helpful to those of us who may not have already seen what may be clear to you.  Looking forward to good discussions going forward.

DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #19 on: September 04, 2014, 05:54:17 PM »
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M

Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

BTW, are you sure about these numbers? Because they don't appear to add up to the quarterly volume numbers LC released, which if you recall, was $1.05 billion for the quarter ending June 30th. (see link) The ones you have here add up to $817.7 million for that quarter.  Your March 2014 number is also different from the one reported (see link)

http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-5-billion/

kbenson99

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2014, 07:39:18 PM »
You're missing the inclusion of policy_code 2 loans.

The totals for the 2nd quarter are as follows:

Date    Count   Amount
April         25,246   $326,905,946.10
May         29,097   $350,638,375.70
June        27,835   $328,401,768.67

Amount total of $1,005,946,090.47 matches to what LC is reporting.

DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2014, 11:03:37 PM »
You're missing the inclusion of policy_code 2 loans.

The totals for the 2nd quarter are as follows:

Date    Count   Amount
April         25,246   $326,905,946.10
May         29,097   $350,638,375.70
June        27,835   $328,401,768.67


Amount total of $1,005,946,090.47 matches to what LC is reporting.

Good job! If you'd like, PM me your name/address etc. & I'll grab one of those t-shirts with the No BS symbols for you :)

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=no+bs+hat&id=DFE87C4B7B6F296F959619EE16290D1C2A5D036D&FORM=IQFRBA

or a new free adu*t dvd I have laying around.

*You must be 18 or over to choose the free dvd.
Previous recipients of free dvds are not eligible for this offer. You know who you are. :)


Fred93

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2014, 11:38:28 PM »
You're missing the inclusion of policy_code 2 loans.

Oh, correct. 

Also missing the small business loans and other things that LC is now doing for which no detail is now reported to us.

DanB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2014, 10:28:49 AM »
BruiserB.............No apology necessary, but appreciated anyway. 
I'm one of the last people that would dream of speaking for Core, but I'm confident you'll find that neither Core nor I are regular contributors here anymore,  recent evidence to the contrary non withstanding.
Best wishes for continued success in your p2p investments. 

core

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2014, 07:19:34 PM »
kbenson, definitely go with the pr0n DVD instead of the shirt.  If you ask nicely (and even if you don't), Dan will give you a blow-by-blow rundown (no pun intended) of all the girls appearing in the film and why he didn't hook up with each one of them.  Each, it seems, has a story.   For example one of the cuties was apparently fleeing my state.  But Dan of course has a reason why he didn't give her the benefit.  "Friends" or some such nonsense.

Back to the topic, and you guys can hassle me all you want, but there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that the March spike was not due to LendingClub "just deciding to ramp things up".  AnilG was nice enough to post data for me back in April I think it was, and I never posted the chart as I promised.  But there is absolutely no question that LC (and Prosper) volume spiked right after that unfortunate incident. 


Peter

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2014, 11:48:08 AM »
So all this leaves me with just one question.  Considering that this info has been out for around 6 weeks now, was blog owner Peter just not aware of the volume decline................or did he just decide not to report it for some reason?

I have been aware of this for the past few weeks and I heard back from Lending Club about it a couple of weeks ago (before their IPO). I have been trying to find the time to devote a post to it this week but didn't get to it. Look for a post about the Lending Club numbers this coming week.
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core

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #26 on: September 07, 2014, 07:46:03 AM »
I have been trying to find the time to devote a post to it this week but didn't get to it.

One wonders if plans for such a post were made before or after Dan broke the news.  But I'll give Peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that the plans were made "a couple of weeks ago" after Lending Club responded to his query.  I can see where he might be pressed for time as he was busy writing more important articles during those couple of weeks:

Funding Circle USA Acquires LeapPay to Speed Loan Approvals - Aug 26th
Save the Date for LendIt 2015 in New York - Aug 29th
Prosper Records More Strong Growth in August - Sep 4th

Yes, these gems were no doubt more important than Lending Club decreasing volume for the first time in over 3 years.

Unlike some other posters here, I am fine with playing DanB's guessing game.  If for no other reason the entertainment value.  The suggestion here seems to be that Peter intentionally withheld the news, at least for a while, and I must say the available data doesn't exactly contradict that.  But I have exhausted my guesses as to why.  Whenever I try to explain human behavior the first thing I ask myself is: What does the other person have to gain?  That's where I run into a dead end here.  Perhaps our game show host would be so kind as to offer some hints.  I'd like to buy a vowel, Dan.

Peter

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #27 on: September 07, 2014, 08:42:27 AM »
Unlike some other posters here, I am fine with playing DanB's guessing game.  If for no other reason the entertainment value.  The suggestion here seems to be that Peter intentionally withheld the news, at least for a while, and I must say the available data doesn't exactly contradict that.  But I have exhausted my guesses as to why.  Whenever I try to explain human behavior the first thing I ask myself is: What does the other person have to gain?  That's where I run into a dead end here.  Perhaps our game show host would be so kind as to offer some hints.  I'd like to buy a vowel, Dan.

There is a simple explanation for why this post has taken a while to come out. It is because a post like this takes more time to write than the others you have mentioned. Finding the 3-4 hours needed to write a post like this has become increasing difficult for me these days.
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JoeB

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #28 on: September 07, 2014, 09:30:14 AM »
I have been trying to find the time to devote a post to it this week but didn't get to it.

One wonders if plans for such a post were made before or after Dan broke the news.  But I'll give Peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that the plans were made "a couple of weeks ago" after Lending Club responded to his query.  I can see where he might be pressed for time as he was busy writing more important articles during those couple of weeks:

Funding Circle USA Acquires LeapPay to Speed Loan Approvals - Aug 26th
Save the Date for LendIt 2015 in New York - Aug 29th
Prosper Records More Strong Growth in August - Sep 4th

Yes, these gems were no doubt more important than Lending Club decreasing volume for the first time in over 3 years.

Unlike some other posters here, I am fine with playing DanB's guessing game.  If for no other reason the entertainment value.  The suggestion here seems to be that Peter intentionally withheld the news, at least for a while, and I must say the available data doesn't exactly contradict that.  But I have exhausted my guesses as to why.  Whenever I try to explain human behavior the first thing I ask myself is: What does the other person have to gain?  That's where I run into a dead end here.  Perhaps our game show host would be so kind as to offer some hints.  I'd like to buy a vowel, Dan.

Brutal!   8)

I believe Peter in that he had to wait for LC to reply. An article such as this does require time to write especially if the writer wants to put a positive spin on it or minimize the negativity. Either way LC is still useful to me but no longer in a manner I had hoped to utilize. The volume and quality are just not there anymore. In a few months, I was able to invest $10k quickly in what I would term safer notes with higher yields. I deposited another $2500 in early July and am still working off that deposit; same strategy. I had hoped to invest $30-$50k annually but as of right now that doesn't seem possible. Oh well, it's still entertaining and fun.
Best to all,

JB

core

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Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #29 on: September 07, 2014, 10:12:47 AM »
An article such as this does require time to write especially if the writer wants to put a positive spin on it or minimize the negativity.

I think you nailed it right there, Joe. 

I'm looking at the Sep 4th Prosper post and the Lending Club article could have been similarly short:  A chart and maybe 3-4 paragraphs explaining how this is the first time it's happened in 39 months.  No need to get into the whys and hows and excuses... unless, that is, the author had a compelling $reason to do so.  The numbers could have been left to speak for themselves.  Or better yet let Lending Club dish out their own propaganda if they so choose.

Some things definitely take longer than they should.  For example have you noticed that when you get "creative" with your taxes it takes you 10x as long to fill out the forms?  Of course I wouldn't know about such things, but I hear it is true.