Author Topic: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?  (Read 15149 times)

JoeB

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 53
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #30 on: September 07, 2014, 01:35:44 PM »
An article such as this does require time to write especially if the writer wants to put a positive spin on it or minimize the negativity.

I think you nailed it right there, Joe. 

I'm looking at the Sep 4th Prosper post and the Lending Club article could have been similarly short:  A chart and maybe 3-4 paragraphs explaining how this is the first time it's happened in 39 months.  No need to get into the whys and hows and excuses... unless, that is, the author had a compelling $reason to do so.  The numbers could have been left to speak for themselves.  Or better yet let Lending Club dish out their own propaganda if they so choose.

Some things definitely take longer than they should.  For example have you noticed that when you get "creative" with your taxes it takes you 10x as long to fill out the forms?  Of course I wouldn't know about such things, but I hear it is true.

i think Peter knows what he's doing for his own enlightened self interest; for the most part. I've learned much from what he's written but have also learned he is most certainly biased. When he trumpeted a lending site making loans to students based on future earnings, their higher grades, as well as FICO, etc., I thought that was highly risky. He disagreed and at that point is when I realized he'll tout anything lending. It's all good according to him and we're all entitled to our opinions.

The one thing I will say that is deceiving are his LC accounts which he displays. He makes no mention of loan terms in his filters. This would lead one to believe he is investing across the board in 36/60 loans which would give someone a 70% investment in 60 month loans. All is great but he mentioned in a post on here that he is 70% in 36 month term loans. I think he should have clarified that in his articles.

No one can be perfect and we can nitpick most anyone. Overall I think, he's a valuable resource.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2014, 01:51:23 PM by JoeB »
Best to all,

JB

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2756
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #31 on: September 07, 2014, 10:00:23 PM »
i think Peter knows what he's doing for his own enlightened self interest; for the most part. I've learned much from what he's written but have also learned he is most certainly biased. When he trumpeted a lending site making loans to students based on future earnings, their higher grades, as well as FICO, etc., I thought that was highly risky. He disagreed and at that point is when I realized he'll tout anything lending. It's all good according to him and we're all entitled to our opinions.
Maybe I'm an optimist, but I wouldn't give up on Peter just yet.  Entrepreneurs, like Peter, tend to be very optimistic.  You have to be to take all that risk.  I really think a major blow up is what is going to make people realize this "new lending model" jazz can be quite risky.  I don't think Peter will be happy if he ends up guiding people into something that ends up blowing up, which is likely to happen if he continues to focus on the P2P ventures providing the best yields.  It's just the nature of high yield stuff.

While studies show a strong link between successful entrepreneurs and optimism, having too sunny of a disposition can lead to delusions of success. It can spur people to overestimate the market and their abilities to execute, while being unaware of crucial facts or possible setbacks.

Entrepreneurs must learn to balance their inner cheerleader and realist, and it isnít always a clear-cut line down the middle. Some business situations require more optimism than realism, while others call for a different ratio.

Emmanuel

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 157
    • View Profile
    • LendingRobot
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #32 on: September 08, 2014, 11:17:09 AM »
Maybe I'm an optimist, but I wouldn't give up on Peter just yet.  Entrepreneurs, like Peter, tend to be very optimistic.  You have to be to take all that risk.  I really think a major blow up is what is going to make people realize this "new lending model" jazz can be quite risky.  I don't think Peter will be happy if he ends up guiding people into something that ends up blowing up, which is likely to happen if he continues to focus on the P2P ventures providing the best yields.  It's just the nature of high yield stuff.

Totally agree. Yes, Peter is optimistic and tends to see peer lending through rose-colored glasses. So do all the people working in this industry (me and all the LendingRobot team included).

But that's ok. Being optimistic doesn't mean being unrealistic. The one thing I disagree with is that only a major blow-up will show this new lending model is not ideal: with higher interest rates, fixed income securities will become less attractive. The lack of liquidity, or the growing importance of institutional investors (more layers = more fees = less $ for investors) may hurt growth at one point. And so on. Peer Lending could go through a soft-landing instead than a big crash. But disintermediation and lower costs (because the marketplace is Internet-based in this case) win in the long-term; ask your local bookstore. Oops, optimism kicking in again ;-)


rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2756
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #33 on: September 08, 2014, 11:23:35 AM »
I didn't say it will make the model less than ideal. I think a blow up will make people pay closer attention than they currently do to the risks involved

Peter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 754
    • View Profile
    • Lend Academy
    • Email
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #34 on: September 08, 2014, 12:47:13 PM »
Thanks for your comments everyone. As I have said many times, I am a cheerleader for the space and am most definitely biased. I have made this industry my career and as such I have a vested interest in its success.

But I try hard to be honest and as transparent as possible in everything I do. I think it is unfair to say I will promote "anything lending". I mention companies on Lend Academy who I believe in and who I think would make a good investment. What you never hear about are the many companies I say no to.

As for Rawraw's comment about a blow up I know there are many people concerned about that happening. And I think as investors we should not expect these 10-12% returns to continue forever. There will be a downturn at some point and there will be platforms that go out of business. We all need to heed the risks, myself included, and invest with our eyes wide open.

Finally, I know there are those on this forum who believe I am doing a poor job in many ways and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and are free to express it here. But I will continue to work hard because I love this industry and I believe in sharing what I know. Whether this is worthwhile or not is for you to judge.
Publisher of the Lend Academy blog

See my returns here: http://www.lendacademy.com/returns

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2756
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #35 on: September 08, 2014, 01:40:45 PM »
Finally, I know there are those on this forum who believe I am doing a poor job in many ways and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and are free to express it here. But I will continue to work hard because I love this industry and I believe in sharing what I know. Whether this is worthwhile or not is for you to judge.
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.


Cries

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 91
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #36 on: September 08, 2014, 02:38:42 PM »
So is it true that Lending Club actually had a decline in volume back in June? It's first decline after 39 consecutive months of volume increases?  I heard about it a few weeks back, but thought that it couldn't possibly even remotely be true, since something newsworthy like that would have surely been reported immediately on this site by our non investigative reporter/ party planner blog owner.

I'm sorry, I'm being abrasive again. I will excuse myself now before someone here offers me a Kool-Aid :)

The perfect time to IPO!! 

Peter

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 754
    • View Profile
    • Lend Academy
    • Email
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #37 on: September 08, 2014, 02:43:14 PM »
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

Thanks rawraw. Your kind words are appreciated.
Publisher of the Lend Academy blog

See my returns here: http://www.lendacademy.com/returns

turing

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 222
    • View Profile
    • PeerToPeerQuant.com
    • Email
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #38 on: September 08, 2014, 03:43:42 PM »
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

I second rawraw.  We know your biases because you make them clear in posts like the one above.  But you let discussion continue even when it does not agree with your viewpoint.

I've seen lots of forum moderators pull out ban hammers on people very quickly and I appreciate that you let them continue...even if at times they question your motives.

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #39 on: September 08, 2014, 03:59:49 PM »
Finally, I know there are those on this forum who believe I am doing a poor job in many ways and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and are free to express it here. But I will continue to work hard because I love this industry and I believe in sharing what I know. Whether this is worthwhile or not is for you to judge.
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

True, but so what? Just remember that if it wasn't for one of the loudest mouths it's likely you still wouldn't know about this...................4-5 weeks after it actually became available. Yes, we're talking week after week of silence. If I hadn't mentioned it, how many more weeks or months would have gone by?

The question here isn't whether Peter is an optimist or not (as you suggested previously). or even if one is a cheerleader or not. Like I said before, the question is whether the owner of this blog is stating that this blog is a serious p2p news, education site where good & bad news are presented in a timely fashion................... or whether this is as a p2p fan site where supporters come to back slap each other, where good news is immediately presented & bad news gets delayed or kicked under the carpet. The moment I hear from the owner that this is a fan site I'll shut up with any criticism.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 12:47:34 AM by DanB »

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2756
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #40 on: September 08, 2014, 04:10:34 PM »
I view the forum and news site as separate, although there is some spill over.

DanB

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 665
  • A lie told often enough becomes The Truth!
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #41 on: September 08, 2014, 04:20:50 PM »
I view the forum and news site as separate, although there is some spill over.

I couldn't agree more. But you know what? I didn't see this news reported in the "news site" until 2 days ago................after I mentioned it a week ago here & after it was out there for 4-5 weeks. What's your definition of "news", I wonder.

I would love to see how blase & understanding people will be one day when the 4-5 week silence costs them money.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2014, 04:23:23 PM by DanB »

rawraw

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2756
    • View Profile
Re: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #42 on: September 08, 2014, 04:22:42 PM »
I view the forum and news site as separate, although there is some spill over.

I couldn't agree more. But you know what? I didn't see this news reported in the "news site" until 2 days ago................after I mentioned it a week ago here & after it was out there for 4-5 weeks. What's your definition of "news", I wonder.
The quote you used in the other reply was my comments about Peter on the forum. I wasn't opining on the news section

lascott

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1409
    • View Profile
    • Appreciate my post and want to try LendingRobot? URL below
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #43 on: September 08, 2014, 05:30:00 PM »
I get my P2P news from multiple sources just the same as I get my other investment news -- "caveat emptor".  This is just standard practice and common sense by investors.
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

core

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1784
  • Your loss is my gain
    • View Profile
Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
« Reply #44 on: September 08, 2014, 05:46:02 PM »
I would love to see how blase & understanding people will be one day when the 4-5 week silence costs them money.

That has already happened on at least one occasion, Dan, and probably more.  I believe it was when Lending Club stopped allowing the selling of notes when they were in BK.  Or maybe it was the change regarding payment in progress.  I don't remember which one it was, but it matters little now.

That cost several people here a LOT of money.  Me included.  As I recall, Peter said he knew about it ahead of time but it was not an unfair advantage because he did not trade on it.

I do not mean to rehash an old topic.  I merely point it out to say that what you offered as a hypothetical has already happened and may be happening on a continual basis.  I am making no judgements on that... not in this post anyway.