### Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 239885 times)

#### PhilGD

• Full Member
• Posts: 150
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #165 on: August 13, 2016, 12:10:22 PM »
There is a blog, I think it is lendingrobot, that shows a curve.  His curve is slightly different.  I believe it shows chargeoffs rather than delinquency.  Of course chargeoffs happen a little later than the first nonpayment event, so the bump in that curve is a few months later.

The Lending Robot "Lifetime Distribution" curve doesn't seem to have a bump.
The curve is based only on loans that charged off over a certain period and shows when they did.
It flattens dramatically after age 0.5 (at 18 months for 36 month loans or at 30 months for 60 month loans):

http://blog.lendingrobot.com/research/predicting-the-number-of-payments-in-peer-lending/

That's because their lifetime distribution curve is a cumulative representation. For instance, compare the two charts on the top of page two of this performance update from Prosper: https://www.prosper.com/about-us/wp-content/uploads/Prosper.Performance.Update.July_.pdf

The delinquency curve on the top right is not cumulative, it is month-to-month, and this is the type of relationship that Fred was referring to.

#### Rob L

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2108
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #166 on: August 13, 2016, 01:41:59 PM »
There is a blog, I think it is lendingrobot, that shows a curve.  His curve is slightly different.  I believe it shows chargeoffs rather than delinquency.  Of course chargeoffs happen a little later than the first nonpayment event, so the bump in that curve is a few months later.

The Lending Robot "Lifetime Distribution" curve doesn't seem to have a bump.
The curve is based only on loans that charged off over a certain period and shows when they did.
It flattens dramatically after age 0.5 (at 18 months for 36 month loans or at 30 months for 60 month loans):

http://blog.lendingrobot.com/research/predicting-the-number-of-payments-in-peer-lending/

That's because their lifetime distribution curve is a cumulative representation. For instance, compare the two charts on the top of page two of this performance update from Prosper: https://www.prosper.com/about-us/wp-content/uploads/Prosper.Performance.Update.July_.pdf

The delinquency curve on the top right is not cumulative, it is month-to-month, and this is the type of relationship that Fred was referring to.

Agree. Even though the underlying data is different, if you were to accumulate the Prosper data the shape would look like the LR chart. It wasn't clear to me the shape of the Prosper data was the "bump" described. If it is then the difference discussed is really just the shape and location of this "bump".

#### Fred93

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2221
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #167 on: August 13, 2016, 03:10:59 PM »
The Lending Robot "Lifetime Distribution" curve doesn't seem to have a bump.
The curve is based only on loans that charged off over a certain period and shows when they did.

That's because that curve is CUMULATIVE.  It does have a steeper slope in the middle.

#### Fred93

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2221
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #168 on: August 13, 2016, 04:49:35 PM »
I found a very nice delinquency vs time chart published by Prosper.  This is of course for Prosper loans, not LC, and I think this is for the whole mix of loans, counting both 36 month and 60 month loans.  They've broken it out by vintage.

#### Rob L

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2108
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #169 on: August 13, 2016, 07:00:57 PM »
I found a very nice delinquency vs time chart published by Prosper.  This is of course for Prosper loans, not LC, and I think this is for the whole mix of loans, counting both 36 month and 60 month loans.  They've broken it out by vintage.

Yeah, same chart that PhilGD posted a link to earlier. Very nice info from the Prosper folks.
Take the integral of the Prosper chart or the derivative of the LR chart and just about same shape.
Bottom line; probability of default rises sharply until the mid-payment then drops sharply thereafter (more or less). No?

Anecdotal evidence is that the demand (i.e. premium paid) for Folio notes aged mid-payment is very strong; even in this buyers market.

#### Rob L

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2108
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #170 on: September 04, 2016, 04:01:01 PM »
And here's the monthly update from my August 2016 statement.
This chart uses current charge-offs but uses interest earned five months prior as suggested by Fred93.
It's a more realistic comparison as my recent Folio selling has resulted in a 38% drop in interest earned. Charge offs were already baked in.
On the other hand, in absolute numbers, my charge offs were the highest dollar amount ever. That ain't good.

#### jheizer

• Sr. Member
• Posts: 480
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #171 on: September 04, 2016, 04:14:47 PM »
I got hammered this month

Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

#### lascott

• Hero Member
• Posts: 1432
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #172 on: September 05, 2016, 12:46:48 PM »
This age of account is not that much fun   - My XIRR is tracked carefully and I'm a bit of over 5% so above bonds which is what this investment was 'replacing' for me
NOTE: that I have not bought new notes for a few months tho.

« Last Edit: September 05, 2016, 01:01:01 PM by lascott »
Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

#### dompazz

• Full Member
• Posts: 224
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #173 on: September 06, 2016, 11:32:44 AM »
I, too, got smacked this month with charge offs being 74%.  Running 30% YTD.

#### Rob L

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2108
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #174 on: September 06, 2016, 11:35:53 AM »

Welcome to the club

#### dompazz

• Full Member
• Posts: 224
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #175 on: September 06, 2016, 11:37:54 AM »

Welcome to the club
Considering I made my first deposit in Jan, 2014, I figure it was time.

#### dbailey75

• Guest
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #176 on: September 06, 2016, 02:13:34 PM »
another cease and desist Here.

I'm seeing these on notes that are current and in Grace, one would figure this would be a last resort to get a creditor off your back.

#### stick109

• Newbie
• Posts: 6
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #177 on: September 06, 2016, 07:15:28 PM »
I found a very nice delinquency vs time chart published by Prosper.  This is of course for Prosper loans, not LC, and I think this is for the whole mix of loans, counting both 36 month and 60 month loans.  They've broken it out by vintage.

This is still a bit misleading though. Number of "live" loans for a given tranche goes down with time, so it would make much more sense to chart monthly delinquency as a percentage of loans that are still "alive" at this month. That would give true probability of default as a function of loan age.

#### fliphusker

• Sr. Member
• Posts: 463
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #178 on: September 06, 2016, 08:01:03 PM »

Welcome to the club
Considering I made my first deposit in Jan, 2014, I figure it was time.
Jealous, you made it 2 years, I did not make it 2 months before I had a BK.

#### rawraw

• Hero Member
• Posts: 2790
##### Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #179 on: September 08, 2016, 04:20:22 AM »
I went several years on LC without any defaults.  I miss selling IGP notes