Author Topic: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?  (Read 9930 times)

fliphusker

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2016, 09:13:02 AM »
I am quite curious as to what one would consider the best loans that are snapped up automatically.

fliphusker

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2016, 01:59:26 AM »
I have looked at Lending Robot for 5 days now, between note drop periods.  I was actually very surprised to see so very few notes being snapped up in first couple of minutes.  Never more then 5, and usually not more then 2-3, while sometimes it is actually 0.  So I had a question about what the "percent funded after 5", so I asked on their chat there.  Here are a couple of quotes I got back.

Me "So you do not have daily archives, or session archives? May I ask why not?"

Vanessa "The reason why we do not have daily archives or session archives is because we only invest in new loans and within the first 5 seconds. Any loan on the market for more than an hour is not selected as it has been on the market too long and is essentially not an ideal loan to invest in."

Me "Sorry I am confused by that, as such a small fraction of loans are snapped up in the first minute. I have been trying to track at the drops the past 4 days, and think the most I have seen is 3 notes in any given session. Just trying to lean as much as I can, and appreciate your time and effort."

Vanessa "So there might be a bug with that page with the % funded after 5" column. I've asked the engineering team to take a look as it's 0% for all loans right now. Regardless, there are usually 5-10 loans per batch that get snapped up right away.
As to why we don't have a history page: it doesn't fit with the way we operate. We only look at loans immediately when they are released, so the current batch is what is relevant. After 4 hours we don't care about old loans anymore. The best ones have already been purchased and what's left is, well, leftovers.  You can always browse all available listings on LC."


I find these statements very odd.  5-10 loans is misleading, but I am ok with her inflating numbers to try and get me into auto trading.  Saying that a loan this is older then 1 hour is not a good investment.  I find that a very strange comment.  I am the one putting in filters for notes, and if some of the notes I purchase are not filled in first hour, are bad?  I do not get to see the notes that I have been filled immediately, but I do see the ones that are not.  On the average there are a few that fall within my stringent filters. 
I do not like that she talks about bugs on the pages like that.  Or that after 4 hours loans become "leftovers" and irrelevant.  But that they say they do not track archive pages right before they are taken down, really have a hard time believing this.  Their whole business model is about getting you into quality notes that will absolutely be filled if you are not auto investing with them.  They absolutely have to be tracking this data.  Would be foolish not to see the progression of loans and times. 
Am I maybe reading too much into this, or is it a service that really is not that impressive if notes are not being snapped up as quickly as many think?

Rob L

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2016, 09:09:54 AM »
At the 9pm loan drop last night, 3/3/2016,  the following loan was gone in the first 10 seconds:

https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=71442630

The reason I know is that my auto-invest program tried to buy it but failed as the loan was already fully subscribed (63 investors).
I was able to buy 6 other notes and the whole thing was over in the first 10 seconds.
It took 8 seconds for LC to respond to my request for loans so there wasn't much I could do.
There are probably ways I could make it faster but I don't miss enough loans to make it worth the trouble.

My sense is that loan demand is down over the past few months. The feeding frenzy may have abated but I think it still exists.

AnilG

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2016, 11:06:26 AM »
There is no data to support that loan not fully funded in first few seconds/minutes/hours "leftovers" don't perform well. And, there is no data to support that "best" loans are funded quickly. It is just urban legend and sales pitch. I wrote a series of blog post on this topic in middle of 2014 that tries to dispel such nonsense.

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part I https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-i

Mad Rush at Loan Release Time: Part II - Loan Performance with Time to Fund https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-loan-release-time-part-ii---loan-performance-with-time-to-fund

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part III - Delinquency Rate and FICO Score Change https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-iii---delinquency-rate-and-fico-score-change

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part IV - Interest Rate with Time to Fund https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-iv---interest-rate-with-time-to-fund

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part V - Loan Term with Time to Fund https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-v---loan-term-with-time-to-fund


I have looked at Lending Robot for 5 days now, between note drop periods.  I was actually very surprised to see so very few notes being snapped up in first couple of minutes.  Never more then 5, and usually not more then 2-3, while sometimes it is actually 0.  So I had a question about what the "percent funded after 5", so I asked on their chat there.  Here are a couple of quotes I got back.

Me "So you do not have daily archives, or session archives? May I ask why not?"

Vanessa "The reason why we do not have daily archives or session archives is because we only invest in new loans and within the first 5 seconds. Any loan on the market for more than an hour is not selected as it has been on the market too long and is essentially not an ideal loan to invest in."

Me "Sorry I am confused by that, as such a small fraction of loans are snapped up in the first minute. I have been trying to track at the drops the past 4 days, and think the most I have seen is 3 notes in any given session. Just trying to lean as much as I can, and appreciate your time and effort."

Vanessa "So there might be a bug with that page with the % funded after 5" column. I've asked the engineering team to take a look as it's 0% for all loans right now. Regardless, there are usually 5-10 loans per batch that get snapped up right away.
As to why we don't have a history page: it doesn't fit with the way we operate. We only look at loans immediately when they are released, so the current batch is what is relevant. After 4 hours we don't care about old loans anymore. The best ones have already been purchased and what's left is, well, leftovers.  You can always browse all available listings on LC."


I find these statements very odd.  5-10 loans is misleading, but I am ok with her inflating numbers to try and get me into auto trading.  Saying that a loan this is older then 1 hour is not a good investment.  I find that a very strange comment.  I am the one putting in filters for notes, and if some of the notes I purchase are not filled in first hour, are bad?  I do not get to see the notes that I have been filled immediately, but I do see the ones that are not.  On the average there are a few that fall within my stringent filters. 
I do not like that she talks about bugs on the pages like that.  Or that after 4 hours loans become "leftovers" and irrelevant.  But that they say they do not track archive pages right before they are taken down, really have a hard time believing this.  Their whole business model is about getting you into quality notes that will absolutely be filled if you are not auto investing with them.  They absolutely have to be tracking this data.  Would be foolish not to see the progression of loans and times. 
Am I maybe reading too much into this, or is it a service that really is not that impressive if notes are not being snapped up as quickly as many think?
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 11:10:48 AM by AnilG »
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Anil Gupta
PeerCube Thoughts blog https://www.peercube.com/blog
PeerCube https://www.peercube.com

dompazz

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2016, 04:09:40 PM »
At the 9pm loan drop last night, 3/3/2016,  the following loan was gone in the first 10 seconds:

https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=71442630

The reason I know is that my auto-invest program tried to buy it but failed as the loan was already fully subscribed (63 investors).
I was able to buy 6 other notes and the whole thing was over in the first 10 seconds.
It took 8 seconds for LC to respond to my request for loans so there wasn't much I could do.
There are probably ways I could make it faster but I don't miss enough loans to make it worth the trouble.

My sense is that loan demand is down over the past few months. The feeding frenzy may have abated but I think it still exists.
Let me be the first to say Thhhpppptttt...!  I was one of those lucky 63.

Responses from LC took 2 seconds for my request for new loans and .5 a second for my order request.

jennrod12

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2016, 06:11:50 PM »
PeerCube has a pretty neat feature, they post a tweet at each loan drop saying what the current number of loans available is and how many loans were in that drop.  It's featured on their home page, which also shows a chart of how many loans are available now.  Thus you can determine how many loans were bought between the last loan drop and now.

I don't know how fast it is or how frequently it's updated, for example if you could reliably see how many loans were bought in the first 5 minutes if you browsed to it five minutes after a drop, but it's a nice gauge.  You also don't know if all the loans bought were new loans, or if some were old ones that finally got those last few subscribers.

Jenn

Rob L

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2016, 06:36:42 PM »
Responses from LC took 2 seconds for my request for new loans and .5 a second for my order request.

Congratulations! It was my highest ranked note an I would like to have bought it.
You're buying with your own API code, not a third party, right?

So the deal is that it only took LC 2 sec to give you the loan drop and 8 sec for me. Second class citizen here  :o
I do know how to make my code faster, but ... there are several possibilities; some more intriguing than talking network latencies, et at.
LC has never to my knowledge ever said first come first served.
I have wondered if they are more sophisticated. For example:
1) Accumulate loan release download requests for a period of time and randomize the order of responses. (spread the wealth).
2) Same, but reply in order of cash available as a percentage of cash invested. (balanced demand).
3) ...

I give LC credit for being very smart and first come first served may not be in their overall best interests.
Surely (don't call me Shirley) they have considered this.
On the other hand it's probably what they do, but the alternatives are interesting, no?

AnilG

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2016, 06:55:08 PM »
Thanks Jenn for highlighting the PeerCube tweet and loan availability charts. The Loan Availability on LC Primary Platform chart at https://www.peercube.com/histperf/available_loans/lc might be a better option for /u/fliphusker to see hourly loan availability. I highlighted an example in screen capture below.

PeerCube has a pretty neat feature, they post a tweet at each loan drop saying what the current number of loans available is and how many loans were in that drop.  It's featured on their home page, which also shows a chart of how many loans are available now.  Thus you can determine how many loans were bought between the last loan drop and now.

I don't know how fast it is or how frequently it's updated, for example if you could reliably see how many loans were bought in the first 5 minutes if you browsed to it five minutes after a drop, but it's a nice gauge.  You also don't know if all the loans bought were new loans, or if some were old ones that finally got those last few subscribers.

Jenn
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Fred93

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2016, 07:09:20 PM »
LC has never to my knowledge ever said first come first served.
I have wondered if they are more sophisticated. For example:
1) Accumulate loan release download requests for a period of time and randomize the order of responses. (spread the wealth).
2) Same, but reply in order of cash available as a percentage of cash invested. (balanced demand).
3) ...

I give LC credit for being very smart and...

You and I might do these slightly more complex things, but I've gotta tell ya' I've dealt with their software people, and suspect that they are not the kind of folks to think beyond first-come-first-served.

dompazz

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2016, 07:45:13 PM »
Congratulations! It was my highest ranked note an I would like to have bought it.
It was actually #2 on my ranking, just slightly behind https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=73539625.  My model is (maybe) too sensitive to (monthly income / payment).  I need to investigate it more.

You're buying with your own API code, not a third party, right?
Yup.    I'm actually sitting down tonight to work on v2 and to get my internal latencies down.

So the deal is that it only took LC 2 sec to give you the loan drop and 8 sec for me. Second class citizen here  :o
I get higher response times.  At the 1pm drop today (3/4), it took 9.7 seconds for me to get and parse the loans... all 46 of them.  I suspect they can "improve" how requests are routed and load balanced across their servers.  As Fred93 said (kinda), API user experience is not their main focus.

fliphusker

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Re: Are there enough loans or are the big banks taking control?
« Reply #25 on: March 04, 2016, 08:02:58 PM »
There is no data to support that loan not fully funded in first few seconds/minutes/hours "leftovers" don't perform well. And, there is no data to support that "best" loans are funded quickly. It is just urban legend and sales pitch. I wrote a series of blog post on this topic in middle of 2014 that tries to dispel such nonsense.

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part I https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-i

Mad Rush at Loan Release Time: Part II - Loan Performance with Time to Fund https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-loan-release-time-part-ii---loan-performance-with-time-to-fund

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part III - Delinquency Rate and FICO Score Change https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-iii---delinquency-rate-and-fico-score-change

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part IV - Interest Rate with Time to Fund https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-iv---interest-rate-with-time-to-fund

Mad Rush at Lending Club Loan Release Time: Part V - Loan Term with Time to Fund https://www.peercube.com/blog/post/mad-rush-at-lending-club-loan-release-time-part-v---loan-term-with-time-to-fund

Anil, I skimmed your very first article, and am heading back to really reread it and your series too.  I am trying to scoop up as much knowledge as I can, and that is right up my alley.  I will sheepishly say I had not read anything from Peercube, but that definitely has changed.  Guess will get down with my bad self on a Friday night and delve into more info.  :)
Is there another spot that shows notes and their availability at the drop times besides lending robot?
I appreciate the info all, very useful.