Author Topic: Oil - are you redlining any states?  (Read 2527 times)

thezinfan

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Oil - are you redlining any states?
« on: January 06, 2016, 09:44:39 AM »
Hi,

What states are people not lending to, due to the drop in oil prices? I noticed a Florida loan last night that was getting zero funding, looked decent, but was higher grade and in FL. I'm thinking of eliminating FL, TX. Is FL oil producing?

Larry

Booleans

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Re: Oil - are you redlining any states?
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2016, 10:43:41 AM »
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm

Florida apparently produces 6 thousand barrels of oil per day. This is insignificant compared to the US total of 9,347 thousand bpd. I personally just limit my investments in each state to be no more than 5% of my total portfolio value. I don't really worry about regional recessions any more now that California, Texas, Florida, and New York aren't making up 80% of my portfolio.

jdaun

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Re: Oil - are you redlining any states?
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2016, 11:36:49 AM »
Hi Booleans,

Quote
I personally just limit my investments in each state to be no more than 5% of my total portfolio value.

Do you use an automated method to prevent any state from exceeding 5% of your portfolio, and if so, how do you do it?

I just looked at my note portfolio and TX, NY, and CA are heavily weighted.  I can remove those states from my filters for the time being, thereby allowing other states to "catch up", but that's a very crude and temporary fix.

Any suggestions you have would be appreciated.  Thanks.

Booleans

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Re: Oil - are you redlining any states?
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2016, 01:55:56 PM »
I wrote code to invest through Lending Club's API. I manually download my notes_owned spreadsheet (I'm not a very experienced programmer and am unsure how to grab that file programmatically) and then my code does the rest.

jdaun

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Re: Oil - are you redlining any states?
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2016, 03:13:23 PM »
Thanks for the explanation Booleans.

I'm not a coder, I invest automatically using one of the popular online tools, which to my knowledge doesn't have functionality to balance a portfolio by state (or other attribute).

If anyone knows of an automated online investment tool that has that ability, I'd been keen to hear about it.

Thanks again.

 

kbenson99

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Re: Oil - are you redlining any states?
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2016, 11:34:27 AM »
Given the state volume differences (for example for last quarter ending 9/30/15, CA had $323M of $2.235B of the total LC issuance, or ~14.46%), it would be difficult to find enough loans to cap all of the CA, TX, FL AND NY states at 5% given that these 4 states alone accounted for ~38.34% of the loan issuance last quarter.  You may be able to redline 1 or 2 of these 4 states, but good luck finding enough loan volume from other states.

I'm not aware of any third-party providers that have enabled the capping of state allocation as a percentage of your portfolio.  It is a fairly simple if you have basic programming skills to implement this.

Personally, I redline NY (my default rate from this state was quite a bit higher for some odd reason).  My loan issuance by state is below:


State  %ofIssued
TX   13.83%
CA   13.54%
PA   4.92%
VA   4.71%
NJ   4.63%
FL   3.62%
IL   3.26%
NC   3.26%
OH   3.26%
MD   3.19%
GA   3.11%
MA   2.90%
WA   2.61%
CO   2.46%
IN   2.39%
LA   2.39%
MO   2.32%
AZ   2.24%
MI   2.10%
OK   2.03%
AL   1.81%
SC   1.52%
TN   1.52%
OR   1.45%
MN   1.30%
KS   1.01%
NV   0.94%
NY   0.94%
KY   0.72%
UT   0.72%
AR   0.65%
WI   0.65%
HI   0.51%
NH   0.51%
NM   0.51%
MS   0.36%
WV   0.36%
RI   0.29%
MT   0.22%
ND   0.22%
WY   0.22%
CT   0.14%
DC   0.14%
DE   0.14%
NE   0.14%
AK   0.07%
SD   0.07%
VT   0.07%
   

lascott

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Re: Oil - are you redlining any states?
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2016, 11:40:10 PM »
My changes at the state level for one of my accounts from 9/27/2015 to 1/7/2016

"Lost Rate Diff" % in red means it has gone up ... but you have to eyeball that with the yellow column (% of issued / number of notes).

I don't see anything I'm concerned about.

Via InterestRadar tables

Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y