Author Topic: Sounds of Silence  (Read 8985 times)

Rob L

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Sounds of Silence
« on: July 12, 2016, 05:38:06 PM »
Must be the summer doldrums; nothing happening here on the forum.
Nobody's posting anything ...

Okay, I'll start. LC's stock was smashed pretty badly today and finished at or very near the low of the day.
Any guesses why; does it matter?
Looks to be at a significant technical level to a chartist. Needs a bounce here, no? Why the swoon today? New highs everywhere else.

Meanwhile I remember NJ Guy calling investors to Folio "We Have Cookies".
I'm looking into toasters, but cookies sounds better!  :)

rawraw

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2016, 06:20:09 PM »
I'm curious what 2Q results will look like.  I don't directly hear what the buyside says about LC, only second hand from people who cover tangential spaces.  I suspect people think the worst hasn't been announced yet

Fred93

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2016, 06:31:03 PM »
I'm curious what 2Q results will look like.

Earnings for Q2 will of course be a significant loss.  They've already told you that originations will be down something like 30%.  That produces a loss.  A reported loss, therefore, will NOT be new information, although no doubt there will be a bunch of articles that treat it as such.

I am anxious to see what delinquency rates did in the 2nd quarter.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2016, 06:58:05 PM by Fred93 »

jennrod12

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2016, 07:07:08 PM »
The stock was down today because the WSJ published an article yesterday pointing out that charge-offs are rising, http://www.wsj.com/articles/lendingclubs-newest-problem-its-borrowers-1468265212?

Jenn

fliphusker

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2016, 07:25:56 PM »
Must be the summer doldrums; nothing happening here on the forum.
Nobody's posting anything ...

Okay, I'll start. LC's stock was smashed pretty badly today and finished at or very near the low of the day.
Any guesses why; does it matter?
Looks to be at a significant technical level to a chartist. Needs a bounce here, no? Why the swoon today? New highs everywhere else.

Meanwhile I remember NJ Guy calling investors to Folio "We Have Cookies".
I'm looking into toasters, but cookies sounds better!  :)
Splurged and took some chances today on FOLIO on some notes that are a bit riskier then I normally would.  Have any sell?  FOLIO's good deals are dead and gone, for now.  Think I got one note for over -2%, and it was a whopping -10%.  I felt OK about added risk, until I looked at LC.  2 Perfectly good FOLIO notes I bought last month went IGP.  :(
Saw LC took a blood bath today.  Love when one article can move a stock that much with no facts listed.  Just a reminder why I have very little in the market. 

jheizer

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2016, 08:45:30 PM »
I think it's getting to be a lot harder to judge folio now a days with all the automation that exists since the api came out.  Multiple paid services support it now and individuals like myself.  In my case if a note meets my extremely strict criteria and at a given discount I'll buy it withing minutes of being listed.  Do they publish volume numbers anywhere?  I bet they are waaay up.
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RT45

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2016, 10:57:30 PM »
Quote
Do they publish volume numbers anywhere?  I bet they are waaay up.

Pre May 9th volume was around 330k loans being listed on a continual basis. Now that is around 650-660k, so essentially doubled.

jheizer

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2016, 11:00:50 PM »
I mean more number of transactions actually processed.  I bet the amount of automation since then has sky rocketed.
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

rawraw

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2016, 01:41:58 AM »
I'm curious what 2Q results will look like.

Earnings for Q2 will of course be a significant loss.  They've already told you that originations will be down something like 30%.  That produces a loss.  A reported loss, therefore, will NOT be new information, although no doubt there will be a bunch of articles that treat it as such.

The stock price reacts based on expectations vs reality, not reality alone.  That is why I am curious what it will look like

pre-announcements are not always correct, either.  Originations can be down more or less.  We will see
« Last Edit: July 13, 2016, 01:43:53 AM by rawraw »

nonattender

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2016, 02:38:24 AM »
I get the feeling that underwriting has tightened substantially Q3 in push-to-quality that may wind up adding to origination volume woes, beyond just the Q2 funding-related/general pull-back origination volume woes, which most people here expect, but "the public" does not (so that'll be "news to most").

I'm not taking a position on that, either way...  just a hunch.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2016, 02:40:06 AM by nonattender »
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Rob L

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2016, 10:30:24 AM »
Well, LC's stock has taken a nice bounce back up this morning. Looks like the dip yesterday wasn't a pre-cursor to another shoe dropping or anything particularly meaningful. Probably chased off plenty of "long but nervous"  investors and blew through any number of stop loss levels.

My Folio selling continues at a volume I'm satisfied with. Each time I re-list a lot of notes are sold in the first 30 minutes. Then slow and steady over the rest of the listing period. I haven't run the numbers and can't back this up for now, but I'll get around to it. Haven't changed prices much in a while and don't plan to. Think the heavy initial sales volume upon listing is in the notes I was unable to list in the prior round as they were in processing. There are usually about 400-500 of them. That's another guess and something else to checkout. I've now had enough notes runoff or be sold to convert all my profits to cash and a bit more.

fliphusker

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2016, 10:43:20 AM »
Quote
Do they publish volume numbers anywhere?  I bet they are waaay up.

Pre May 9th volume was around 330k loans being listed on a continual basis. Now that is around 650-660k, so essentially doubled.
We all know that most of FOLIO is poorly priced.  Seriously, what percent of FOLIO is even near the ballpark let alone, in it? 
Lets look at FOLIO real quick. 
726k for sale total, right now.
Fico up/flat, never late, current/issued and markup of -1 to -99 total-2,119
Of those, what percent have a YTM that beats the original YTM? 
Maybe the above is not a good example for FOLIO, but those 2k+ notes are notes that are realistically priced to be moved. 

AnilG

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2016, 12:36:54 PM »
Lending Club weekly sales report looks promising. The loan volume increased to 2,418 from 1,541 and origination amount increased to $28.8M from $17.2M.

https://www.peercube.com/histperf/available_loans/lc

Well, LC's stock has taken a nice bounce back up this morning. Looks like the dip yesterday wasn't a pre-cursor to another shoe dropping or anything particularly meaningful. Probably chased off plenty of "long but nervous"  investors and blew through any number of stop loss levels.
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RT45

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2016, 01:46:19 PM »
Quote
726k for sale total, right now.

@fliphusker - I'm seeing 678k right now, have never seen it go past 700k. Are you sure your numbers are correct?

Rob L

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Re: Sounds of Silence
« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2016, 02:29:52 PM »
Quote
Do they publish volume numbers anywhere?  I bet they are waaay up.

Pre May 9th volume was around 330k loans being listed on a continual basis. Now that is around 650-660k, so essentially doubled.
We all know that most of FOLIO is poorly priced.  Seriously, what percent of FOLIO is even near the ballpark let alone, in it? 
Lets look at FOLIO real quick. 
726k for sale total, right now.
Fico up/flat, never late, current/issued and markup of -1 to -99 total-2,119
Of those, what percent have a YTM that beats the original YTM? 
Maybe the above is not a good example for FOLIO, but those 2k+ notes are notes that are realistically priced to be moved.

Things have changed a lot since before 5/9; and not just volume.
I used three criteria to identify notes that are "unreasonably priced"; markup>8%, Not NeverLate and markup or >= 0%, and YTM <= 3%.
Clearly this is a very minimalistic definition of unreasonably priced, but yielded some interesting results.
At one time on 4/18/2016 there were 321,098 notes listed. Of these 52,936 or 16.5% met the definition of unreasonably priced.
Today there were 675,397 notes listed. Of these 238,029 or 35.2% were unreasonably priced.
Go figure ...