Author Topic: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes  (Read 5654 times)

bdonovan

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
    • Email
Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« on: July 25, 2016, 12:55:02 AM »
So I read through a fair amount of information on this forum and blogs about Lending Club note selection.  Was about to begin with some basic filters but there seem to be basically no notes of grade C, D, or E.   It's all A, B, F.   Is this common?  Or a temporary thing?   I understand good notes go quickly- is it that investors know historically the returns of these notes have performed so they get grabbed quickly?   Thanks- I'm new to marketplace lending and Lending Club.

bdonovan

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2016, 01:21:22 AM »
OK, this screenshot from one of the automated tools may be the answer to my question. 


Fred93

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2054
    • View Profile
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2016, 01:40:02 AM »
Loans are added four times per day.  Check back shortly after the next feeding time, and then again after the next, etc.  The stuff you want won't necessarily be sitting there waiting for you at any random time.

fliphusker

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2016, 12:25:40 PM »
https://twitter.com/peercube
While your looking at Lending Robot and the notes that drop at the last time, Peer Cube lets you see the times if you are unfamiliar with the times. 
Only around 860 notes available, this can vary greatly.  There are automated pickers from a number of different sites that will allow you to grab notes right away.  I will warn you, be ABSOLUTELY SURE that your filter is set right if you are going to go automated.  Sucks buying notes that do not meet your criteria. 
I am about four months in and have learned just a ton here.  Lots of very helpful people.  Still feel like I am a nub at times, but reading things here, I am less of a nub than I was yesterday.  :)  If you have questions, just remember, there is never a dumb question.  (I have asked dozens and dozens of questions.)
Good luck to you!!!

bdonovan

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 36
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2016, 02:01:45 PM »
Flip- cool; thanks for the heads up on checking the results on automation before scaling it up.  Good to remember 'automation' doesn't mean you can mentally check out- but still need to actively review if the bot is doing what you want.    I'm looking at automated lending at the moment.  Have been looking at NSR and Lending Robot.  What is PeerCube like?  I have a demanding day job so I don't really have time to fully optimize the investment; I noticed NSR had fully-managed accounts (so does LR).  Hard to find accounts from people as far as what lift they've seen in using the automation tools.  I'd be very curious on what added returns they've seen from using automation. 

dr.everett

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2016, 02:22:43 PM »
From someone who is heavily automated- always keep an eye on it. What you automate today may not be the strategy you want 6 months from now. I'm on my 3rd major strategy revision since I started, and probably will not be my last change. And I've been in LC for almost 6 years.

It is easy to screw it up and if you don't catch it fast you will lose quickly as others will take advantage when they see it before you do.

fliphusker

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2016, 02:41:14 AM »
Flip- cool; thanks for the heads up on checking the results on automation before scaling it up.  Good to remember 'automation' doesn't mean you can mentally check out- but still need to actively review if the bot is doing what you want.    I'm looking at automated lending at the moment.  Have been looking at NSR and Lending Robot.  What is PeerCube like?  I have a demanding day job so I don't really have time to fully optimize the investment; I noticed NSR had fully-managed accounts (so does LR).  Hard to find accounts from people as far as what lift they've seen in using the automation tools.  I'd be very curious on what added returns they've seen from using automation.
I had a bad filter when I first started, was my own fault. 
Guess it depends on how big your account is.  Smaller account such as mine, I use NSR as I do not get charged anything.  (I only buy on FOLIO, so do not autobuy).  PeerCube charges a $20 flat rate.  Hit up Anil and he might give you a free month with them.  It is a great site with many bells and whistles to it.  Anil has great blog posts there too that are extremely informative.  LR I do not use (bad filter site).  Blue investment I think is the other one, or did they merge with someone?  If there are others I am not familiar with them. 
As far as people saying what they get from managed accounts, not sure how many here actually do it that way.  Guessing only a few. 
The Dr. is right about changing strats. 

Edward Reid

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 88
  • I see the brevity of truth.
    • View Profile
    • Paleolithic Refugia
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2016, 10:35:30 AM »
bdonovan is right: something very strange is going on this week. At 6:30 AM PDT this morning, there were 751 loans available. All were A, B, and F, and there were plenty of each. There were no -- as in absolute zero -- C, D, or E loans. This is NOT the normal daily or hourly variation.

I don't use automated investing, either LC or third party. I won't criticize those who do, but I would not recommend it to a friend. You do not need a boatload of notes unless you are investing so much (like two million dollars or more) that you cannot invest it all in 200 loans. Look at the numbers: up to about 200 notes, your risk decreases with more notes. Above about 200, there's no noticeable decrease in risk. I think most investors will be better off studying each loan application carefully, aiming to get to 200 notes over a period of a few weeks, and then buying additional notes as payments come in or as they wish to invest more. They should take their intended investment, divide by 200, round down to the nearest $25, and buy notes in that amount. (Hence the "two million" above: there are few loans issued for less than $10,000.)

I started out allowing LC to invest for me. I stopped that real fast, after only 14 notes. Then I went through the lists, picking another 153 notes pretty quickly -- over a week or two IIRC. Then I started being more careful, and after about three months came up with my private criteria that I've been using for the past 11 months. I'm up to 319 notes -- more than 200, partly from using payments to buy more notes, but mainly because I decided to increase my investment.

Of those 319 notes, 12 are charged off, 7 are 31-120, and 2 are grace. Every one of those 21 notes are from those first 3 months, when I was less careful about what I accepted. A few of the later notes have gone grace or 16-30, but those caught up. Not a single one of my "private criteria" notes is currently in the slightest trouble. I'm sure of my "private criteria" notes will eventually sour, but the contrast has been fairly dramatic. (The class distribution is basically the same in the two sets.)

Hence my advice: don't be in a big hurry, and don't aim to buy more than 200 notes initially. You will likely feel that your money is lying idle too long while you are finding the right loans -- I know I did. (And then it lies idle several days between placing your order and the loan being issued.) Just keep reminding yourself that a single charge-off hurts your return a lot more than a couple more weeks of investment helps it.

Edward

Edward Reid

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 88
  • I see the brevity of truth.
    • View Profile
    • Paleolithic Refugia
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2016, 10:30:08 AM »
And this morning, still the strange distribution. 300+ A loans, 400+ B loans, 50+ F loans, zero C, D, E.

I suppose someone *could* be snarfing up all the C-E loans, but AFAIK someone investing that much would be taking whole loans. And in a year of watching (I know, not that long) I've not seen such an odd distribution.

Edward

PhilGD

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2016, 12:11:33 PM »
I agree that this is a strange distribution of available notes. Fortunately some of the F's look attractive. In the meantime I have a small pile of cash building up while I wait for more variety.

fliphusker

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 463
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2016, 01:54:47 PM »
I agree that this is a strange distribution of available notes. Fortunately some of the F's look attractive. In the meantime I have a small pile of cash building up while I wait for more variety.
Actually looked through all the Fs.  Most of them their FICO scores simply scare me.  Others those BK just put me off.  If I had a bigger account, absolutely there are ones that I would open up and jump upon. 
This is where I am glad that I have moved onto FOLIO.  It does concern me that LC is not listing a good enough spread onto the market and directing them to the other two markets.

Cody0022

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2016, 09:15:29 AM »
So I know above people were noticing the same thing as myself in regards to almost no D-E notes. Wondering if anyone found out anything. Is this the new normal? 60% of my portfolio is D and E and this two week low is really slowing down my reinvestment.

Larry321

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 57
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2016, 09:40:49 AM »
So I know above people were noticing the same thing as myself in regards to almost no D-E notes. Wondering if anyone found out anything. Is this the new normal? 60% of my portfolio is D and E and this two week low is really slowing down my reinvestment.

Cody,
I see the same thing. And, the number of defaults I have had has increased.  I am thinking it is time to quit reinvesting and move some of my money back to Fidelity.
LC notes investor for 3 years

Bitcoin speculator

jrr6415sun

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 22
    • View Profile
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2016, 04:21:42 PM »
I have been saying/noticing this for months.. C-E notes are disappearing, either within minutes or there is just no supply, which I don't get since I keep reading articles how there isn't enough demand for LC.

bluto

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 22
    • View Profile
    • Email
Re: Ready to Begin: but no C-E notes
« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2016, 09:04:12 AM »
I suspect the individual investors with a filter that targeted C-F loans (I get the impression that the institutions were major players in the A & B markets) were the main client group that stayed through the troubles, so no the reduced loan activity across all grades means the C-F loans are underserved (demand didn't drop as much as loan origination did) while there's a surplus in A & B (and G) loans.