Author Topic: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G  (Read 20361 times)

P2P_CT

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2013, 06:49:21 AM »
Great analysis, Viking.  Interesting that so few D-G loans are on offer.

Your analysis might point to the power of the institutional investor, who, in my opinion, would be less likely to invest outside of normal office hours. 

Before reading your analysis, I would download the Browse Notes file at any time of day.  Now, I will aim for the 6am file. 

Thanks! 


viking

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2013, 02:10:43 PM »
Your analysis might point to the power of the institutional investor, who, in my opinion, would be less likely to invest outside of normal office hours. 
Yes, and don't forget LC Prime. I think that they would invest during office hours as well.

viking

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2013, 04:28:07 PM »
A small reality check; The original graph(s) may give the impression that there are very few notes available shortly after they are posted. However, note that the axis did not start at zero. The same graphs with axis starting at zero instead are shown below:
GRADES A-C:

GRADES D-G:

Randawl

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2013, 06:12:12 PM »
...very few notes available shortly after they are posted

Perhaps true of the good ones, however!    8)

viking

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2013, 06:45:25 PM »
...very few notes available shortly after they are posted

Perhaps true of the good ones, however!    8)

Possibly, but not for sure. Take LC Prime investing, for example.
1. There are more A-C than D-G notes available.
2. LC selects "random loans" from the different Grades as requested by the lender in their risk selection.

Between 6 -10 AM for example, the # available loans decreased from 548 to 407 (Grades A-C) and from 71 to 24 (Grades D-G).  Thus, in this example, 141 A-C loans and 47 D-G loans disappeared (e.g. were fully funded). It is possible that they were simply randomly selected and funded by LC Prime. We have no evidence that these were the "good ones".

p.s. I wonder how LC selects the loans in their Prime investing. Maybe they preferentially select recently posted loans...?

Randawl

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2013, 06:58:25 PM »
Quote
We have no evidence that these were the "good ones".

Good point.  My only evidence is anecdotal.  For example, I've found that if I don't check the listings very soon after their posting, loans in which I want to invest are at ~90% funding and by the time I try to add them to my order, some are already fully funded.

viking

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2013, 06:59:52 PM »
In order to determine the behavior of "good loans", I used IR to determine the availability of loans for a modified Score Strategy.Here are the results for a particular strategy and day:

"Good Loans" (IR modified Score Strategy)

« Last Edit: March 11, 2013, 07:12:29 PM by viking »

dontvote

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2013, 07:39:31 PM »
If you ran the prosper version of this chart it would bounce from zero to one at those times.

dont
joke
dontvote

Interest Radar IRR: 46.11%
NSR ROI: 41.22%
Average Loan Age: Your Moms

viking

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #23 on: March 12, 2013, 04:45:25 AM »
As promised previously, here are examples of weekend vs Wednesday behavior;

GRADES A-C (note that the scale starts at 300):


GRADES D-G


Loans disappear (e.g. get funded) the slowest on Sunday; slightly faster on Saturday and the fastest on Wednesday.
On some Sundays, the number of available loans are even steadily increasing:

GRADES A-C for 2 different Sundays (note that the scale starts at 400):

(the graph for 3/3/13 has a lower time-resolution than the one on 3/10/13)


FrankieC

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #24 on: March 12, 2013, 10:32:50 AM »
Thank you for doing this. Very interesting. I didn't realize notes were added on weekends. I thought it was a weekday thing only.

dontvote

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2013, 06:16:07 PM »
Also interesting to see that this is still a human operated business. Institutional investors may have an API but it doesn't look like they're truly automating their investments (otherwise we wouldn't see this m-f 9-5 effect).

Possible they have an API load in the notes and some kind of intern approving them :)

dontvote
dontvote

Interest Radar IRR: 46.11%
NSR ROI: 41.22%
Average Loan Age: Your Moms

bgator76

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2013, 06:32:44 PM »
Thanks for the very informative post.  This brings up a question about Nickel Steamroller that I've been wondering for a while.  When I search through NS, it seems like I'm not always getting the freshest listing of loans.  How often/when are the listings found through NS updated?  Am I missing out on some good opportunities by only searching through NS?  It's unfortunate that LC's website doesn't allow as many filter settings, and of course doesn't give me the estimated ROI I get from NS.

Peter

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2013, 06:41:51 PM »
There is now a post on the blog with these charts:
http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-loans-being-snapped-up-quickly/
Publisher of the Lend Academy blog

See my returns here: http://www.lendacademy.com/returns

viking

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2013, 06:43:18 PM »
Thanks for the very informative post.  This brings up a question about Nickel Steamroller that I've been wondering for a while.  When I search through NS, it seems like I'm not always getting the freshest listing of loans.  How often/when are the listings found through NS updated?  Am I missing out on some good opportunities by only searching through NS?  It's unfortunate that LC's website doesn't allow as many filter settings, and of course doesn't give me the estimated ROI I get from NS.

I do not know about NSR, but I did look into Interest Radar (I plan a separate post on this after Rev is back from vacation). IR posts the loans 4-5 min after LC.

NSR

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Re: Number of Available Loans During 24 hrs: Grades A-C and D-G
« Reply #29 on: March 28, 2013, 04:26:48 PM »
You may find these charts of interest:

http://www.nickelsteamroller.com/chart/combined/availability?platform=lendingclub

http://www.nickelsteamroller.com/chart/combined/availability?platform=prosper

I'm now monitoring this data in 5 minute increments. I will be making it available for download once I have a full month of data.  I plan to keep this data on file forever.