Worst Month Yet

[thezfunk]

Down to my last few notes.  When I get those gone, I won't be back.

[Rob L]

Down to my last few notes.  When I get those gone, I won't be back.

Lucky you! 

[SeanMCA]

Down to my last few notes.  When I get those gone, I won't be back.

Good luck on whatever journey you go on next.

[michael49]

I continue to let my primary LC account wind down.  I’ve lost money this year, but overall I’m still in the black since I started investing.

I’ve only got about 5k in my IRA account (luckily I only invested 1 year in the IRA).  This account I will continue to reinvest and see what happens, more out of curiosity than anything else.

[Rob L]

New month; new year; same old same old.
For the record I entered 2017 with $84.7k outstanding principal in notes owned and closed out the year with $34.0k (no Folio selling).
Lending Club is currently advertising "Solid Returns: 4 - 6%". I lost ($986.56) this year (and haven't had any of those "disowned" F and G loans for years).
Since May 2016 I've lost about 10% of the profits made before that time and the losses continue as you see.
I can only count my blessings that I started in 2013 and accumulated very significant profits before the party ended. Others were not so lucky.
Maybe the later vintages are better; I wouldn't know. I don't own any.

[au88]

I'm right there with you. Lost $819 on ~100k invested last month.

[Rob L]

I'm right there with you. Lost $819 on ~100k invested last month.

Wow! That's terrible!
What does your portfolio look like that produced that result?

[lascott]

Is anyone factoring recovery amounts (recover-recovery_fees) into their 'profits' --- it may make you feel better

I'm just taking the two recover related values from the monthly statements (2nd page).

See my highlighted column data for my example.  I'm not getting rich by any stretch of the imagination.

Below is my taxable account that I am pulling money out of weekly.  My ROTH IRA is doing similar (yes, I have one less column in that sheet )



..

[Rob L]

Yep, I've been including recoveries in my monthly profit / loss charts all along.
Recoveries are significant. For example my interest this month was $394.13 and recoveries were $146.19.
Think of it; my charged off loan recoveries were 37% of my total interest this month! Wow! Pretty unbelievable.
It's a sad commentary on the health of my loan portfolio as my charge offs were -($750.40), but I'll take what I can get.
Puts my loss this month at approximately $750 - $410 = $340 on $30k invested (about -13.6% annualized loss).

[Rob L]

I'm right there with you. Lost $819 on ~100k invested last month.

Wow! That's terrible!
What does your portfolio look like that produced that result?

Actually my annualized percentage loss this month was worse.
I lost $340 on $30k invested equaling about -13.6% annualized loss.
You lost $819 on $100k equaling about -9.83% annualized loss.
I'll still go with: "Wow! That's terrible!" for both of us. Think I'd take lascott's portfolio above.

[jheizer]

To be fair though, wouldn't it be safe to say you sold off all the best loans and are basically left with what didn't sell?  Kind of skews the results.

I've been slowly backing down my amount and not reinvesting for a bit just to lower the account and on the 30k I have in there now with a 22 month average age still pulling a profit most months.

[lascott]

Graph of my taxable account recoveries-recover fees since I started. Curious that 02-2018 is the first February that I received recoveries. Note that on my taxable account that 2016 & 2017 I did not.

Taxable account


ROTH IRA account

To be fair though, wouldn't it be safe to say you sold off all the best loans and are basically left with what didn't sell?  Kind of skews the results.

I was thinking the exact same thing/comment.

[Rob L]

To be fair though, wouldn't it be safe to say you sold off all the best loans and are basically left with what didn't sell?  Kind of skews the results.

I've been slowly backing down my amount and not reinvesting for a bit just to lower the account and on the 30k I have in there now with a 22 month average age still pulling a profit most months.

Yes, that's true. However, I didn't buy any notes from about 5/15/2016 - 9/15/2016. A rather bad vintage era. That should skew things for the better.
But! I really stepped in it when I resumed buying D & E notes around 9/15/2016 through 2/15/2017. Those chickens are coming home to roost and I didn't sell any.
From around 2/15/2017 until 4/15/2017 I bought only B notes and they are probably giving my portfolio a bit of help here.
So, it's a bit of a mixed bag.

As a point of reference my nephew opened a LC account and I bought 544 D & E notes for him from 4/15/2016 through 5/13/2016.
A brief snapshot in time. No notes have been sold. His ANAR is 2.76%, WAIR is 19.34% and Weighted Age 22.5 months.
He was way too young to mess with this LC stuff. He should have put it into the market and forgotten about it. And, I should have told him so!

[Rob L]

Graph of my taxable account recoveries-recover fees since I started. Curious that 02-2018 is the first February that I received recoveries. Note that on my taxable account that 2016 & 2017 I did not.

Curious indeed! I did not get any recoveries in February of 2016 or 2017 either.
I did in 2015, but not in 2014.

[Rob L]

Box score for the month of February 2018. A little optimism in the delinquency chart!
But; largest charge offs as a percent of interest and largest loss as a percentage of principal invested yet.
So, I'm quietly optimistic this is the low water point (unless the real economy tanks). Thinking good thoughts.
Is it always darkest before the dawn; or before the lights go out completely?

PS: The annualized monthly profit/loss as a percent of principal invested chart is based on the month end principal invested.
That's unduly pessimistic. Obviously it's a bit better than that. I should have used the mean invested for the month.
Outstanding principal $30.5k invested at start of month and about $27.2k invested at end of month.
For the sake of consistency I won't change it now, but as the numbers get smaller the effect will get bigger.