Author Topic: Worst Month Yet  (Read 138315 times)

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #570 on: July 05, 2018, 07:05:32 PM »
As Yogi would say this month is deja vu all over again.
Same old same old.
All things equal I'd rather be making $50 per month rather than losing it.









Fred93

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #571 on: July 05, 2018, 08:16:13 PM »
My updated chart.


LC doing well last few months, but Prosper dropped into the toilet.  Don't know why. 

Orchard hasn't updated their index for April yet.  I wonder if they're giving up, or just delayed.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #572 on: July 06, 2018, 10:03:58 AM »
My updated chart.
LC doing well last few months, but Prosper dropped into the toilet.  Don't know why. 
Orchard hasn't updated their index for April yet.  I wonder if they're giving up, or just delayed.

Another good LC month. Starting to look more like 5% to 6% reality rather than a statistical fluctuation.
My delinquency rate has been down the past 6 months. Another positive indicator.

storm

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #573 on: July 06, 2018, 11:33:16 AM »
Another good LC month. Starting to look more like 5% to 6% reality rather than a statistical fluctuation.
My delinquency rate has been down the past 6 months. Another positive indicator.

Really?  I'm investing in mostly B's and C's, and I'm hovering around a 4% annualized return.  Charge-offs have been steady since February (about .5%/month of my total portfolio).

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #574 on: July 07, 2018, 11:09:19 AM »
Another good LC month. Starting to look more like 5% to 6% reality rather than a statistical fluctuation.
My delinquency rate has been down the past 6 months. Another positive indicator.

Really?  I'm investing in mostly B's and C's, and I'm hovering around a 4% annualized return.  Charge-offs have been steady since February (about .5%/month of my total portfolio).

I was commenting about Fred93's good month, not mine. Sorry that was unclear.
I'm plodding along at maybe -3% annualized, but only on $17k and dropping.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #575 on: July 07, 2018, 11:46:51 AM »
As you can see from my Outstanding Principal chart above, the runoff decline in the amount of my invested principal has been slowing each month (in absolute dollars). Totally expected of course. However, I wondered the percentage of principal decline month to month, thinking it was slowing or perhaps flat. The chart below was a surprise to me. It seems that as a percent of principal invested the decline is and has been increasing each month as my account has wound down. I'm thinking the reason is that as my portfolio ages I am receiving more principal and less interest each month (per loan amortization). So, the higher your weighted average portfolio age the quicker it will run off (as a percent of principal invested of course). Taking it one step further, the higher your weighted average interest rate the quicker it will run off as well (with same caveat).



Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #576 on: July 11, 2018, 09:32:29 AM »
The next logical step was to take the "Using the % change in Outstanding Principal" data trend line to project my runoff into the future.
The chart is below:



By the end of the year I should receive another $10k, bringing the outstanding principal to around $7k.
Twelve months from now (6/2019) I should be down to $2,500 outstanding principal.
If Folio is still around I'll probably use it to sell all remaining notes by in the period 9/2019 - 12/2019.
All my notes are 36 month term and the term of the last note bought will end 2/2020.
Nice to have a plan. Will be interesting to see how well the projection holds up.


Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #577 on: November 03, 2018, 01:09:46 PM »
Four months later and the projection is tracking very nicely.
We'll see how that $7k at year's end projection holds up.



hdsouza

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #578 on: November 04, 2018, 09:56:10 AM »
When Notes turn delinquent they take out a huge chunk of the money we have earned in the form of interest received on the good notes. We really struggle to get the good notes and when one of them tuns bad it negates all the hard work put in.

LC really needs to do a better job of going behind the defaulters. But then, why should they. Its not their hard earned money. its ours.  Sorry I am ranting.

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #579 on: December 07, 2018, 09:38:17 AM »
Still on track:



lascott

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #580 on: December 08, 2018, 08:29:09 PM »
When Notes turn delinquent they take out a huge chunk of the money we have earned in the form of interest received on the good notes. We really struggle to get the good notes and when one of them tuns bad it negates all the hard work put in.

LC really needs to do a better job of going behind the defaulters. But then, why should they. Its not their hard earned money. its ours.  Sorry I am ranting.

I am thankful they have increased their efforts in the couple years. Keeps me 'positive'.

Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #581 on: December 10, 2018, 09:25:11 AM »
When Notes turn delinquent they take out a huge chunk of the money we have earned in the form of interest received on the good notes. We really struggle to get the good notes and when one of them tuns bad it negates all the hard work put in.

LC really needs to do a better job of going behind the defaulters. But then, why should they. Its not their hard earned money. its ours.  Sorry I am ranting.

I am thankful they have increased their efforts in the couple years. Keeps me 'positive'.


Is the amount of principal in each account constant over the period shown?
If not then how do the numbers look as a percent of principal invested? TIA

arcee49

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #582 on: December 10, 2018, 12:09:22 PM »
When Notes turn delinquent they take out a huge chunk of the money we have earned in the form of interest received on the good notes. We really struggle to get the good notes and when one of them tuns bad it negates all the hard work put in.

LC really needs to do a better job of going behind the defaulters. But then, why should they. Its not their hard earned money. its ours.  Sorry I am ranting.

I am thankful they have increased their efforts in the couple years. Keeps me 'positive'.


Is the amount of principal in each account constant over the period shown?
If not then how do the numbers look as a percent of principal invested? TIA

I was wondering this as well...but wouldn't recoveries as a percent of Charged Off Amount be more useful?  And as you get a recovery the Charged Off Amount would decrease for subsequent months.

lascott

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #583 on: December 10, 2018, 10:20:03 PM »
When Notes turn delinquent they take out a huge chunk of the money we have earned in the form of interest received on the good notes. We really struggle to get the good notes and when one of them tuns bad it negates all the hard work put in.
LC really needs to do a better job of going behind the defaulters. But then, why should they. Its not their hard earned money. its ours.  Sorry I am ranting.
I am thankful they have increased their efforts in the couple years. Keeps me 'positive'.
Is the amount of principal in each account constant over the period shown?
If not then how do the numbers look as a percent of principal invested? TIA

I've been taking money out almost daily for like 1.5 yrs I think.   I'm afraid my G sheet does not have Principle but it does have Charge Off Amount from the monthly statements.

Here is a percentage of Recovery-RecFees Amount compared to Charge Off Amount.  It appears they hired Guido in 2018-08 :)

Tools I use: (main) BlueVestment: https://www.bluevestment.com/app/pricing + https://www.interestradar.com/ , (others) Lending Robot referral link: https://www.lendingrobot.com/ref/scott473/  & Peercube referral code: DFVA9Y

Rob L

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Re: Worst Month Yet
« Reply #584 on: December 11, 2018, 09:37:34 AM »
When Notes turn delinquent they take out a huge chunk of the money we have earned in the form of interest received on the good notes. We really struggle to get the good notes and when one of them tuns bad it negates all the hard work put in.
LC really needs to do a better job of going behind the defaulters. But then, why should they. Its not their hard earned money. its ours.  Sorry I am ranting.
I am thankful they have increased their efforts in the couple years. Keeps me 'positive'.
Is the amount of principal in each account constant over the period shown?
If not then how do the numbers look as a percent of principal invested? TIA

I've been taking money out almost daily for like 1.5 yrs I think.   I'm afraid my G sheet does not have Principle but it does have Charge Off Amount from the monthly statements.

Here is a percentage of Recovery-RecFees Amount compared to Charge Off Amount.  It appears they hired Guido in 2018-08 :)


Wow! that's a lot of kneecaps!
Nice uptrend too.