Author Topic: Odd FICO trend  (Read 5814 times)

fliphusker

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Odd FICO trend
« on: January 11, 2017, 01:16:25 PM »
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=46566428&order_id=64036175&note_id=78228149
This is not the first of its kind I have seen listed.  NSR tracking had the FICO at 499.  It was marked with a nice discount, assuming it had been automatically listed by someone's program.  When I stumble across these I just do not know what to think of them. 
Others run into these?  Curious you guys who run automated selling or buying if you have bought/sold notes with confusing trends.

yojoakak

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 04:03:53 PM »
Nice find. I can't imagine where the 499 came from.

EDIT (for anyone just joining this thread): fliphusker points out below that the FICO data for this loan stopped being updated a year ago (Dec 2015) and somehow NSR interprets that as a 499 FICO score. That's it.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 03:05:38 PM by yojoakak »

dr.everett

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 05:45:58 PM »
Even the adjusted FICO is too low for my liking. My rules would avoid it. Needs to be 50 points higher to be considered.

fliphusker

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2017, 02:16:05 AM »
I only went through about 50 notes and found these.  I am talking only a sliver on FOLIO.  Was just curious if your automation would not have an issue with detecting these data issues or if it would attempt to automatically sell them.
This FICO would be more to your liking.  The YTM is atrocious.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=5435173&order_id=65152555&note_id=24870575
Nice YTM, payment history a bit of a mess but FICO is up, or is it?
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=57217208&order_id=78367639&note_id=90958972
Would you consider this?  Or would the screwy FICO make you shy away from it?
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=54099289&order_id=74491767&note_id=86830531
16-month note with only 2 FICO scores.  499 on NSR and 730 on FOLIO
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=58350908&order_id=80597143&note_id=92502043
15 payments and raised his FICO 100 points in that time?  Impressive, but only 3 data points.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=60810506&order_id=84241372&note_id=96252201
Posted this one just cuz the guy has a 21% premium on it.  :P  Well and it has screwy FICO too.
This YTM is much better, except the down FICO
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=3808612&order_id=102338749&note_id=21026658
FICO missing completely after 14 months?  $225 note listed too
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=62136215&order_id=86953112&note_id=99800014

Even the adjusted FICO is too low for my liking. My rules would avoid it. Needs to be 50 points higher to be considered.

Fred93

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2017, 02:31:30 AM »
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=46566428&order_id=64036175&note_id=78228149
This is not the first of its kind I have seen listed.  NSR tracking had the FICO at 499.

Not sure I understand.  You believe NSR was showing wrong data?  Have you taken this up with the NSR folks?

fliphusker

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2017, 02:42:57 AM »
Swapped some messages with Zack from NSR.  NSR is showing these notes with a 499 FICO because of the screwy data points.  While it is an LC issue it is affecting how notes show up there and am just curious if anyone else has seen things like this.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=46566428&order_id=64036175&note_id=78228149
This is not the first of its kind I have seen listed.  NSR tracking had the FICO at 499.

Not sure I understand.  You believe NSR was showing wrong data?  Have you taken this up with the NSR folks?

Fred93

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2017, 03:02:38 AM »
Swapped some messages with Zack from NSR. 

Great.

Quote
NSR is showing these notes with a 499 FICO because of the screwy data points.

I'm still not following you.  WHAT screwy data points?  I don't see anything screwy when I look at those loans.  I see a nice FICO chart with nothing screwy. 

What are you seeing that is "screwy"?

fliphusker

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2017, 03:08:20 AM »
The one that I pointed out only has three FICO score datapoint to it do you not see that? All the rest are missing a monthly FICO score to them

Fred93

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2017, 03:27:04 AM »
The one that I pointed out only has three FICO score datapoint to it do you not see that? All the rest are missing a monthly FICO score to them

Looking at the one you linked in the first message, I see the following data which generates the chart...
  <dataset seriesName="Borrower CREDIT Score Range">
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 04/15{br}Score Range: 660-664" value="684.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 05/15{br}Score Range: 670-674" value="722.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 06/15{br}Score Range: 685-689" value="779.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 07/15{br}Score Range: 695-699" value="817.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 08/15{br}Score Range: 700-704" value="836.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 09/15{br}Score Range: 685-689" value="779.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 10/15{br}Score Range: 675-679" value="741.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 11/15{br}Score Range: 665-669" value="703.0"/>
    <set toolText="Borrower CREDIT Score Range for: 12/15{br}Score Range: 680-684" value="760.0"/>
  </dataset>

What is screwy about that?

I'm sorry, I'm just not understanding you.

fliphusker

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2017, 03:34:52 AM »
There should be 15.that is how many payments they have made. Should be a tico pull for every month right?
Now look at fico on this one. Do you see what I mean?
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=46566428&order_id=64036175&note_id=78228149

Fred93

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2017, 03:53:18 AM »
Ah.  So back to the first loan you linked ... all the 2016 data is missing from the chart, right?

So we have missing data, and a chart that mishandles missing data so that it isn't obvious data is missing.  Am I getting it now?

I wanted to see what FICO was reported in the inventory file for this loan, so I downloaded the current inventory file and searched for this loan number, but didn't find it. 


dr.everett

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2017, 02:08:16 PM »
I only went through about 50 notes and found these.  I am talking only a sliver on FOLIO.  Was just curious if your automation would not have an issue with detecting these data issues or if it would attempt to automatically sell them.
This FICO would be more to your liking.  The YTM is atrocious.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=5435173&order_id=65152555&note_id=24870575
Nice YTM, payment history a bit of a mess but FICO is up, or is it?
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=57217208&order_id=78367639&note_id=90958972
Would you consider this?  Or would the screwy FICO make you shy away from it?
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=54099289&order_id=74491767&note_id=86830531
16-month note with only 2 FICO scores.  499 on NSR and 730 on FOLIO
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=58350908&order_id=80597143&note_id=92502043
15 payments and raised his FICO 100 points in that time?  Impressive, but only 3 data points.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=60810506&order_id=84241372&note_id=96252201
Posted this one just cuz the guy has a 21% premium on it.  :P  Well and it has screwy FICO too.
This YTM is much better, except the down FICO
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=3808612&order_id=102338749&note_id=21026658
FICO missing completely after 14 months?  $225 note listed too
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=62136215&order_id=86953112&note_id=99800014

Even the adjusted FICO is too low for my liking. My rules would avoid it. Needs to be 50 points higher to be considered.

Can't look at these right now as I'm at work and reading this on my IPad. That said, I have Lending Robot set up to look for FICO up or even, at least 7% return, and a minimum FICO level in the 700 range. I don't pay more than 3% premium. In many cases I pay way less than 3%. LR also has some proprietary things it does as well. Still no issues finding notes that meet my criteria.

fliphusker

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2017, 02:47:34 PM »
Your right.  There is data missing on all of these notes.  I was completely mistaken thinking this was an NSR issue.  It is an LC issue.  NSR correctly lists the note at 499 as that is what is in the file.  I went and tried to manually search for it on FOLIO, but could never find it.  Hate manually searching on FOLIO. 
I downloaded the file from FOLIO (never done that before.)  It shows up with the 499 for FICO end range. 
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=3808612&order_id=102338749&note_id=21026658
Ah.  So back to the first loan you linked ... all the 2016 data is missing from the chart, right?

So we have missing data, and a chart that mishandles missing data so that it isn't obvious data is missing.  Am I getting it now?

I wanted to see what FICO was reported in the inventory file for this loan, so I downloaded the current inventory file and searched for this loan number, but didn't find it.
Dr. Everett I am going to assume this would be the same for LR.  What I do see as an issue for people is when they go to sell notes with missing data it will be improperly listed or maybe not listed at all.  I know full well I bought a note with missing info as it had a HUGE markdown. 

Fred93

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2017, 05:17:29 PM »
Your right.  There is data missing on all of these notes.  I was completely mistaken thinking this was an NSR issue.  It is an LC issue.  NSR correctly lists the note at 499 as that is what is in the file.

I think there are several bugs/quirks that combine to create this situation.

I believe one of the bugs is that NSR does not handle the situation of missing data correctly.  Its not right to tell you that a note has a FICO of 499 when in fact the FICO data from LC is *MISSING*.

There is definitely missing data in the FICO field in the LC data.  There is no documentation from LC explaining that this will happen, or how to interpret it.  However, I think it is wrong for software to interpret this as "Hey, this note has a really low FICO, so you should SELL it!"

The bugs are...
1. LC has way too many missing FICO fields.  LC has no documentation re this.
2. LC's note detail web page mishandles missing FICO fields. 
3. NSR mishandles missing FICO fields.

Rob L

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Re: Odd FICO trend
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2017, 05:36:47 PM »
When selling I downloaded the file notes_ext.csv file containing data for all saleable notes I own. The file contains a column named last_credit_pull_d that, in theory, tells me when LC last updated the fico for each of my notes. The fico itself is in the columns last_fico_range_low and last_fico_range_high. I just downloaded my notes_ext.csv file and sorted on last_credit_pull_d. For the note below the file contained 0 (zero, not empty, missing or NULL) as the last_fico_range_low and high values and the last_credit_pull_d is 4/15/2016. However, the borrower has a perfect payment record as shown in the payment history log. Certainly wouldn't want to sell this one at a discount. I put the note up for sale (at a markup) so anyone interested can take a look. My portfolio contains 67 notes with last_credit_pull_d of 12/1/2016 or earlier. Clearly there are some significant issues here. One may not assume LC reliably updates fico on all notes once per month. Makes me wonder if I gave away any notes in my selling spree last fall.

https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/loanPerf.action?loan_id=22353917&order_id=29756633&note_id=53488955