Author Topic: Is Folio dead?  (Read 3906 times)

jasondhsd

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Is Folio dead?
« on: May 21, 2017, 07:09:26 PM »
Anyone have luck selling their portfolio on folio or is lendingclub that toxic for investors to touch now? Tried selling at 3% not one sold after 48hrs and from what I read 3% most should sell but that article was a few years old.

Fred93

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2017, 07:32:18 PM »
My software buys notes on Folio every day.

When you say "3%", you didn't say if that was a 3% discount or a 3% premium or what. 

Also, note that the price people are willing to pay depends on all the loan parameters and payment history.  Loans that are late sell at steep discounts.  Most participants depend on latest FICO and payment history heavily.  The price I'm willing to pay depends on vintage (year issued) as well as loan credit data, current FICO, payment history.  I pay small premiums for some clean 2013/4 loans.

Presuming you were talking about 3% discount.  There's nothing magic about 3% discount.

Whoever wrote the article you mention may have had a very different portfolio than you do.  His rule of thumb might not work for you.

There's no reporting of transaction prices on Folio, so you have to discover for yourself what prices buyers will pay.

The fact that there is no transaction price data on the folio Marketplace is one of its greatest failings IMHO.  Whoever heard of a market with no historical price information?

fliphusker

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2017, 12:37:38 AM »
Jason, for me I do not even look at notes that do not have a YTM of at least 16%. Not sure about others, but I do not go under that point and do not ever pay a premium for a note. I have had too many notes pay off early and not going to take a loss that way.
Someone (Or multiple people) in the last few days have been liquidating their account and taking some nice sized losses by doing so. So for me, the market has been a feeding frenzy. (need something to make up for a note I had four of that went BK after 43 payments. Stupid me.)

J2E

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2017, 08:41:33 PM »
I started by listing all my current and issued notes at a 5% markup.  Sold some.  Then once that time frame ran out or they went payment pending, I listed them again at 3%.  Some more sold.  Now I'm listing at 2%.  Some sold.  I figure I'll get most sold eventually.  I do attempt to sell my IGP and late notes but I do mark them down significantly.  On some, I try to list them so that I get my initial investment back.  Don't always sell, but those are the breaks.

dr.everett

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2017, 04:37:57 PM »
Jason, for me I do not even look at notes that do not have a YTM of at least 16%. Not sure about others, but I do not go under that point and do not ever pay a premium for a note. I have had too many notes pay off early and not going to take a loss that way.
Someone (Or multiple people) in the last few days have been liquidating their account and taking some nice sized losses by doing so. So for me, the market has been a feeding frenzy. (need something to make up for a note I had four of that went BK after 43 payments. Stupid me.)

Folio's not dead- but there seems to be a bit of a quality dip at the moment. My last Folio purchase was Sunday, and have been none since. A quick check with LR, as I thought there were issues there, confirmed everything is working fine, but a manual check of available notes shows there are less than 100 that come close to meeting my criteria. Out of those 100 I purchased 13 manually.

Will be waiting to see what it looks like tonight after payments are posted. Flip must've gotten lucky catching the liquidator as I haven't noticed any trends up or down in terms of Folio as of late. If purchases tonight remain low then there may be a trend starting (for me...).


Joe6Luck

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2017, 01:39:15 PM »
I have a check and see 80+ notes that are "Issued" && (Trend = "FLAT" or "UP") && Discount > 0.5% && Note Amount = $25. It is supposed that they are strictly better than the new notes released on the retail platform. However, when I download the search results, I see these folio notes have been listed for 4 days (on average.) So, is it merely because the demand is very low on foliofn, or because the quality of these notes are actually not as good (but why)?

As a reference, here is the query I used

https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/tradingInventory.action?mode=search&loan_status=loan_status_issued&search_from_rate=0.04&search_to_rate=0.31&fil_search_term=term_36&fil_search_term=term_60&search_loan_term=term_36&search_loan_term=term_60&opr_min=0.00&opr_max=Any&never_late=true&remp_min=1&remp_max=60&askp_min=0.00&askp_max=Any&credit_score_min=600&credit_score_max=850&ytm_min=Any&ytm_max=Any&credit_score_trend=UP&credit_score_trend=FLAT&markup_dis_min=-100&markup_dis_max=-0.5&ona_min=25&ona_max=25

AnilG

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2017, 05:04:12 PM »
Do you think it is better for newly issued notes to sell at discount on secondary platform? I seriously doubt you are buying "high quality" newly issued notes when you purchase at discount from secondary market. I will give you a hint, look at the loan data that is not available at primary platform when loan was originally listed and funded and the data that now has become available to seller once the note from such loans were issued.  8)

I have a check and see 80+ notes that are "Issued" && (Trend = "FLAT" or "UP") && Discount > 0.5% && Note Amount = $25. It is supposed that they are strictly better than the new notes released on the retail platform. However, when I download the search results, I see these folio notes have been listed for 4 days (on average.) So, is it merely because the demand is very low on foliofn, or because the quality of these notes are actually not as good (but why)?

As a reference, here is the query I used

https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/tradingInventory.action?mode=search&loan_status=loan_status_issued&search_from_rate=0.04&search_to_rate=0.31&fil_search_term=term_36&fil_search_term=term_60&search_loan_term=term_36&search_loan_term=term_60&opr_min=0.00&opr_max=Any&never_late=true&remp_min=1&remp_max=60&askp_min=0.00&askp_max=Any&credit_score_min=600&credit_score_max=850&ytm_min=Any&ytm_max=Any&credit_score_trend=UP&credit_score_trend=FLAT&markup_dis_min=-100&markup_dis_max=-0.5&ona_min=25&ona_max=25
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fliphusker

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2017, 12:14:29 PM »
Here is the problem with using FOLIO to do searches. The search criteria are just too limited. Just a few quick things that would not pass my filter when I was buying on the primary market. (Did not look at the notes that closely so probably other reasons too.)
107695909-32% DTI
107600181-Public record
108240959-Rent and three inquiries.
My guess is these notes simply do not pass others filters or that most who buy on FOLIO only buy notes that are seasoned.
I have a check and see 80+ notes that are "Issued" && (Trend = "FLAT" or "UP") && Discount > 0.5% && Note Amount = $25. It is supposed that they are strictly better than the new notes released on the retail platform. However, when I download the search results, I see these folio notes have been listed for 4 days (on average.) So, is it merely because the demand is very low on foliofn, or because the quality of these notes are actually not as good (but why)?

As a reference, here is the query I used

https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/tradingInventory.action?mode=search&loan_status=loan_status_issued&search_from_rate=0.04&search_to_rate=0.31&fil_search_term=term_36&fil_search_term=term_60&search_loan_term=term_36&search_loan_term=term_60&opr_min=0.00&opr_max=Any&never_late=true&remp_min=1&remp_max=60&askp_min=0.00&askp_max=Any&credit_score_min=600&credit_score_max=850&ytm_min=Any&ytm_max=Any&credit_score_trend=UP&credit_score_trend=FLAT&markup_dis_min=-100&markup_dis_max=-0.5&ona_min=25&ona_max=25

Joe6Luck

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2017, 06:43:52 PM »
@AnilG, Thanks for the hint. It is very interesting, and I'd like to get some data points to find out more by myself. Can you tell me where to find the extra info that becomes available right after a note is issued? I guess you didn't mean the note detail page (where there is no extra info such as collection log, credit change, etc. for most just "Issued" notes) or the loan file (that is updated once per quarter.)

Chances are some investors simply need to liquidate their notes purchased on the primary market for whatever reasons. When they bought the notes on the primary market, they might not use any filters or might use different filters than what foliofn users will use. But, I still think these note, when being listed on folfiofn at a discount and satisfying the several other criteria I used in the query below (possibly plus one more criterion:  empty collection log on the note detail page), become a better choice than their counterparts on the primary market.

Of course, we can claim that Lending Club's algorithm might fail to evaluate the risk of these notes and set up right interest rate (which I believe is the case, given the significantly degraded performance in the last 12-24 months). But, this is a separate and more general question, isn't it?

jheizer

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2017, 07:06:25 PM »
They probably have it saved from when it was originally listed.
Replacement to P2P Quant's Percentile Tool http://lc.geekminute.com

rawraw

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Re: Is Folio dead?
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2017, 07:29:31 AM »



Of course, we can claim that Lending Club's algorithm might fail to evaluate the risk of these notes and set up right interest rate (which I believe is the case, given the significantly degraded performance in the last 12-24 months). But, this is a separate and more general question, isn't it?
How does the change in performance support the claim they aren't pricing risk? Have to be careful about confusing ex-ante vs ex-post



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