Lend Academy Network Forum

Lending Club Discussion => Investors - LC => Topic started by: Zach on December 05, 2013, 08:56:25 PM

Title: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Zach on December 05, 2013, 08:56:25 PM
Lending Club's new "Understanding Your Returns" page is somewhat of an interesting direction for them to take, but the comparison information is really intriguing to me.

I was just curious how everyone looks on their performance chart plot....

Here's mine (for my primary/largest account):


(https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs30.postimg.org%2Fy76rcdz29%2FCapture_LC_Understanding_Your_Returns.png&hash=d8488494c755ea1edeaa91499afa5c21)
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: brycemason on December 05, 2013, 09:39:10 PM
Nice. I posted mine in my portfolio returns page on the P2P-P forum area, but here it is again. Definitely love this chart. Sure aren't many red dots on your page!


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Fred on December 05, 2013, 10:11:43 PM
Please make sure we are aware of the following disclaimer on the top of page (https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderBenchmarkReturns.action) :

Quote
Note: You have purchased or sold Notes on the Note Trading Platform, therefore NAR and Adjusted NAR will not reflect all of the factors influencing your returns. You may want to use a formula other than NAR to evaluate the performance of your investment.

The disclaimer might not appear if you have not purchased/sold Notes from FOLIOfn.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 05, 2013, 11:00:30 PM
Thanks for sharing!
I tried to post mine, but I couldn't figure out how.
Sorry.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Zach on December 06, 2013, 12:49:39 AM
Thanks for sharing!
I tried to post mine, but I couldn't figure out how.
Sorry.

You can use a free image hosting service, such as postimage.org, upload a screenshot from your computer, get the direct link to the picture, and then click the "insert image" icon in your forum post and insert the direct link between the two brackets.

Hope that helps!
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: storm on December 06, 2013, 03:52:17 AM
My mature portfolio...

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Inflationhawk on December 06, 2013, 07:33:14 AM
Wow, well done Storm!  Do you use Folio or hold your notes to maturity?  If you use Folio, mind sharing your basic strategy?
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: New Jersey Guy on December 06, 2013, 07:43:18 AM
"Please make sure we are aware of the following disclaimer on the top of page (https://www.lendingclub.com/account/lenderBenchmarkReturns.action) :"

I got this graph and could not figure out what the hell it meant!  Now I just realized my graph doesn't have the little, light blue dot.  I'm figuring it's because I trade on Folio.

Fred.....does yours have the little, light blue dot?

It's not fair.  I want a little, light blue dot, too   :'(
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: core on December 06, 2013, 08:21:26 AM
NJG-  If I had to guess I'd say it's not because you trade on Folio, but because you have purchased 100% of your notes on Folio.  Well that still doesn't make sense though, because Folio users still get a NAR and everything for those notes that they are holding.  Heck if I know.

I'm just eagerly awaiting this new version that Peter says is on the way which takes into account Folio users too.  They are probably having troubles trying to get the graph high enough to accommodate our returns!  :p  The graph is going to look like an flat outline of the earth's crust with a few satellites orbiting out there in the heavens.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: New Jersey Guy on December 06, 2013, 08:38:41 AM
"They are probably having troubles trying to get the graph high enough to accommodate our returns!"

That would greatly help.  The good news is, My NAR on LC has now dropped to -35%.  Getting there!  I figure 5 more months, and I'll be back at zero!
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: rawraw on December 06, 2013, 09:11:24 AM
"They are probably having troubles trying to get the graph high enough to accommodate our returns!"

That would greatly help.  The good news is, My NAR on LC has now dropped to -35%.  Getting there!  I figure 5 more months, and I'll be back at zero!
What is your adjusted NAR?
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Fred on December 06, 2013, 10:22:55 AM
Fred.....does yours have the little, light blue dot?

Yes, I got my little blue dot.

However, as expected, it seems to be slightly off -- in both horizontal (age) and vertical (returns) axes.

I sell about 10% of my notes on FOLIOfn.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: brycemason on December 06, 2013, 10:45:20 AM
Users taking advantage of the pre-IGP Folio sales would have a large upwards force in their blue dot. Is that advantage gone these days?
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: core on December 06, 2013, 10:52:56 AM
I don't have a little blue dot either.  And unlike NJG, my NAR isn't negative.  The force must not be strong enough with me.

You can hit the URL directly and grab the data for offline crunching, like so:
https://www.lendingclub.com/account/benchmarkScatterChart.action?adjOnOff=ON&myWeightedAvgIntRate=0.150&similarPercent=1&minNotes=100&portfolioConcentration=2.5

One of the fields appears to show how many notes everybody's got, which I find particularly interesting. 
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Fred on December 06, 2013, 10:59:50 AM
That would greatly help.  The good news is, My NAR on LC has now dropped to -35%.  Getting there!  I figure 5 more months, and I'll be back at zero!

LC's NAR is calculated this way:

(https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lendingclub.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc032baf%2Fobsolete%2FNAR.png&hash=9fc165bf451a2dcda2ce080629b42920)

On possible case for negative NAR is if LC treats your Interesti as zero during the months prior to your note purchase, ceteris paribus.

I have not done analysis on this, but at a high-level I think LC should not start the summation from i=1 for notes acquired from FOLIOfn.

Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: storm on December 06, 2013, 12:43:28 PM
Wow, well done Storm!  Do you use Folio or hold your notes to maturity?  If you use Folio, mind sharing your basic strategy?

Thanks!  That is mostly investing in new notes and holding good notes until maturity.  I was selling IGP notes on Folio, but with the recent changes, I'm rethinking that strategy.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: brycemason on December 06, 2013, 01:32:37 PM
Thanks!  That is mostly investing in new notes and holding good notes until maturity.  I was selling IGP notes on Folio, but with the recent changes, I'm rethinking that strategy.

There's the answer I was looking for. Thanks for confirming =).
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 06, 2013, 02:57:12 PM
Thanks for sharing!
I tried to post mine, but I couldn't figure out how.
Sorry.

You can use a free image hosting service, such as postimage.org, upload a screenshot from your computer, get the direct link to the picture, and then click the "insert image" icon in your forum post and insert the direct link between the two brackets.

Hope that helps!

Thank you--it would have helped if my operating system weren't too obsolete for the Adobe Flash upgrade required.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: SeanMcD on December 06, 2013, 06:38:41 PM
Users taking advantage of the pre-IGP Folio sales would have a large upwards force in their blue dot. Is that advantage gone these days?

I'll confirm the pre-IGP bump - I'm definitely going to miss that.  Account is about 2 years old, but semi-frequent trading has kept the average age fairly low.



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 06, 2013, 07:52:55 PM
I've used Folio for selling only so far, mostly lates.
If neither of these attempts to post the image work I'll delete this post asap.

(https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lendacademy.com%2FUsers%2FKaren%2FDesktop%2FPicture+4.png&hash=4ab5e2f89f85db640b83a77b1a73af3d)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 06, 2013, 07:57:20 PM
Well, it's there, but those aren't the custom settings I was hoping to capture.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 06, 2013, 08:09:05 PM
These are the custom settings with account info.  (I hope!)




[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: skr5e on December 07, 2013, 01:12:32 AM
Great job, here's where I fall:

(https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs29.postimg.org%2Fyjarq11oj%2FUntitled.jpg&hash=60cd63ef6c6e2a34c9bb486071a40707) (http://postimg.org/image/yjarq11oj/)

As far as NAR it's slightly above average for now, which is surprising considering my early mistakes.

EDIT: now I can see everyone else's images too.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: viking on December 08, 2013, 02:45:53 AM
I don't have a little blue dot either.  And unlike NJG, my NAR isn't negative.  The force must not be strong enough with me.

You can hit the URL directly and grab the data for offline crunching, like so:
https://www.lendingclub.com/account/benchmarkScatterChart.action?adjOnOff=ON&myWeightedAvgIntRate=0.150&similarPercent=1&minNotes=100&portfolioConcentration=2.5

One of the fields appears to show how many notes everybody's got, which I find particularly interesting.
Where do you get the different fields? It looks that the URL only shows the graph data points, e.g. first data point = [22.538668427731,0.056428] (age=22.5 & NAR=5.6)
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: viking on December 08, 2013, 02:50:09 AM
Users taking advantage of the pre-IGP Folio sales would have a large upwards force in their blue dot. Is that advantage gone these days?

I'll confirm the pre-IGP bump - I'm definitely going to miss that.  Account is about 2 years old, but semi-frequent trading has kept the average age fairly low.
What is the pre-IGP bump? Is that selling notes just before going into grace (e.g. as shown by a missed payment)?
What was your markup/discount on such notes?
Why doesn't that work anymore?

p.s. I have never traded on Folio.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Fred on December 08, 2013, 03:04:58 AM
I don't have a little blue dot either.  And unlike NJG, my NAR isn't negative.  The force must not be strong enough with me.

You can hit the URL directly and grab the data for offline crunching, like so:
https://www.lendingclub.com/account/benchmarkScatterChart.action?adjOnOff=ON&myWeightedAvgIntRate=0.150&similarPercent=1&minNotes=100&portfolioConcentration=2.5

One of the fields appears to show how many notes everybody's got, which I find particularly interesting.
Where do you get the different fields? It looks that the URL only shows the graph data points, e.g. first data point = [22.538668427731,0.056428] (age=22.5 & NAR=5.6)

You can specify filtering criteria in the URL, as highlighted in bold above.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: core on December 08, 2013, 06:01:07 AM
You can hit the URL directly and grab the data for offline crunching, like so:
https://www.lendingclub.com/account/benchmarkScatterChart.action?adjOnOff=ON&myWeightedAvgIntRate=0.150&similarPercent=1&minNotes=100&portfolioConcentration=2.5

One of the fields appears to show how many notes everybody's got, which I find particularly interesting.
Where do you get the different fields? It looks that the URL only shows the graph data points, e.g. first data point = [22.538668427731,0.056428] (age=22.5 & NAR=5.6)

I knew I should have kept my mouth shut.  They appear to have changed the data.  There used to be 3 different arrays in the data.  The first one (which is now gone) had at least 6-7 different values for each point and one of them was the exact note count for that investor.   The "bmDataArraySimilar" and "bmDataArrayAll" arrays are the only ones that are left, and they are both just boring data points.  I suppose you could still brute force the counts for everyone if you really wanted to.   

Unfortunately I don't think I saved a copy of the previous data.  Maybe I can dig it out of my browser cache.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: brycemason on December 08, 2013, 09:29:54 AM
Very vigilant users were able to detect notes that were just about to go into grace and then sell them onto an unsuspecting buyer, preserving their ROI. It wasn't quite to the level of information asymmetry but definitely an advantage which has been quashed. Many of the blue dots many standard deviations above the norm used this and are unsustainable and incomparable to strategies which let the loan die in the portfolio.


Users taking advantage of the pre-IGP Folio sales would have a large upwards force in their blue dot. Is that advantage gone these days?

I'll confirm the pre-IGP bump - I'm definitely going to miss that.  Account is about 2 years old, but semi-frequent trading has kept the average age fairly low.
What is the pre-IGP bump? Is that selling notes just before going into grace (e.g. as shown by a missed payment)?
What was your markup/discount on such notes?
Why doesn't that work anymore?

p.s. I have never traded on Folio.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: dontvote on December 27, 2013, 04:23:36 PM
Can anyone tell if adjusting the returns for past due notes hits all dots with your adjustment levels or just uses LC's defaults? 

I'm not going to post the graph but in my cash acct I look just like Bryce only stupider (same WA Interest Rate and slightly younger portfolio, slightly lower return). I don't trade folio though.

Maybe in real life I look just like Bryce only stupider.

dontjudgeabookbyitsNAR
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: rawraw on December 28, 2013, 09:29:43 AM
Has anyone noticed more people with negative NARs are now on the graph?  Perhaps it was a conspiracy to hide negative returns. Alert Core
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: RaymondG on January 15, 2014, 09:52:23 AM
I noticed that the dots dropped much more than it was several weeks ago when I compared the charts with and without Adjustment to return. Does it indicate that larger percentage of loans is deteriorating? My account have more bad loans in recent 2 months. Any guess about why?

-Raymond

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Joleran on January 15, 2014, 07:25:59 PM
There's a lot of speculation that around this time of the year, people's finances are more likely to experience temporary setbacks due to overspending on the holidays.
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: Show Me The $ on January 17, 2014, 06:47:28 AM
Here is mine FWIW

(https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpostimg.org%2Fimage%2Fjo8ms6cql%2F&hash=48c65e652f775164455eaaa6ab70f030)

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: Understanding Your Returns Page
Post by: PeerSocialLending on January 17, 2014, 11:05:48 AM
Not sure if it is related, but I had several issues with the filters actually displaying/changing the dots based on my selections. Next time I logged on, it seemed to be working again.