Lend Academy Network Forum

Lending Club Discussion => Investors - LC => Topic started by: DanB on September 02, 2014, 04:51:22 PM

Title: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 02, 2014, 04:51:22 PM
So is it true that Lending Club actually had a decline in volume back in June? It's first decline after 39 consecutive months of volume increases?  I heard about it a few weeks back, but thought that it couldn't possibly even remotely be true, since something newsworthy like that would have surely been reported immediately on this site by our non investigative reporter/ party planner blog owner.

I'm sorry, I'm being abrasive again. I will excuse myself now before someone here offers me a Kool-Aid :)
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 02, 2014, 05:45:27 PM
Wait . . . did the volume decline?

And DanB, you sure like stirring the pot ha ha
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 02, 2014, 06:55:29 PM
Of course the volume had to decline in June, Dan.  This says nothing about Lending Club's inept management; there was simply nowhere else for it to go but down, because the interest in MH370's disappearance was waning by May.

When the Boeing 777 disappeared in March, Lending Club took advantage of the deaths of 239 people by running ads on the major news channels.  The results exceeded their wildest expectations and they were knocking it out of the park March-April.  But even the greatest aviation mystery of all time only captivates people so long, given that the average person's attention span these days is that of a gnat.  There was no way, short of a miracle or another air disaster, that the numbers could be sustained through June.

I'm going to give Lending Club the benefit of the doubt here and say that they "probably" had nothing to do with MH370's disappearance, even though they cashed in big time.  Just in the right place at the right time, yeah that's the ticket.  And now Malaysian Airlines loses another one, MH17 shot down supposedly by the "Russians".  Is someone trying to recapture past glory?  I don't know, but looking over the LC roster they have quite a few employees from "odd" places all over the world.  Based on their photos many of them seem to be screwballs, and from their resumes I can't see any special talents... certainly no talents that you couldn't get right here in the USA from a non-commie American.  Either these employees were cheap or they had "connections" that Lending Club wanted.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 02, 2014, 07:59:26 PM
Uh-huh. Though we can all agree that Core does have his lucid & intelligent days, today appears to be one of those other days. Please Core I'm begging you not to help me on this thread.   
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 02, 2014, 08:14:59 PM
Yeah and I'm even sober today Dan.  Disbelief of the reasons aside, the point remains: the volume had to go down because it had skyrocketed to unsustainable levels.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 02, 2014, 09:22:47 PM
Wait . . . did the volume decline?

And DanB, you sure like stirring the pot ha ha

So you knew about this & said nothing?
Besides, a pot needs to be stirred in order to make sure there's no obscured unpleasant items in there. Otherwise sheeple will often unquestioningly consume anything they're given by the non investigative journalists, cheerleaders, yes men, industry mouthpieces etc. etc.

Who knows, maybe stirring the pot has saved some people from succumbing to IPO mania.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 03, 2014, 04:15:51 AM
Wait . . . did the volume decline?

And DanB, you sure like stirring the pot ha ha

So you knew about this & said nothing?
Besides, a pot needs to be stirred in order to make sure there's no obscured unpleasant items in there. Otherwise sheeple will often unquestioningly consume anything they're given by the non investigative journalists, cheerleaders, yes men, industry mouthpieces etc. etc.

Who knows, maybe stirring the pot has saved some people from succumbing to IPO mania.
No, I didn't know.  I was just surprised no one else had mentioned it
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Victor on September 03, 2014, 09:40:45 PM
I noticed another sharp decline in available loans but missed the boat on the volume decline.  Could these declines be related to the impending IPO and a planned (required) reduction in marketing (self-promotion) to potential borrowers in an effort to avoid running afoul of the SEC in some way?
Title: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: BruiserB on September 03, 2014, 10:18:10 PM
So where is it documented that there was a decline?  Not saying there wasn't, just wondering if this is fact or conjecture?  I know LC doesn't release monthly figures any longer and it has been pretty clear that they manipulate volume by controlling loan issues near the end of months. 

I don't think anyone here is unwilling to listen to negatives about the P2P lenders, but I don't really feel like playing guessing games to figure it out.  If you know something about the volume, tell us, don't taunt us.

I've been unhappy with many of LC's recent changes, but so far none of them have convinced me that I should be moving funds elsewhere. I did actually open a Prosper account, but didn't fund it yet as I'm not convinced things are better over there. I do also appreciate that Lending Club has a business to run, so even if I don't like some of the changes, if they make the business and the platform healthier and more financially stable, then I understand that.  However, if they begin to erode investor performance and can't achieve acceptable financial results, then I want to know about that as well.  It's possible to be direct with bad news without playing games or insulting people with differing opinions.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 03, 2014, 10:23:29 PM
I noticed another sharp decline in available loans but missed the boat on the volume decline.  Could these declines be related to the impending IPO and a planned (required) reduction in marketing (self-promotion) to potential borrowers in an effort to avoid running afoul of the SEC in some way?

I'm no SEC or IPO expert, but I seriously doubt it. Regardless, I like how you're thinking out of the box. I've not heard that interpretation before.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Fred93 on September 03, 2014, 10:27:14 PM
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M
Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 03, 2014, 10:35:58 PM
So where is it documented that there was a decline?  Not saying there wasn't, just wondering if this is fact or conjecture?  I know LC doesn't release monthly figures any longer and it has been pretty clear that they manipulate volume by controlling loan issues near the end of months. 

I don't think anyone here is unwilling to listen to negatives about the P2P lenders, but I don't really feel like playing guessing games to figure it out.  If you know something about the volume, tell us, don't taunt us.

I've been unhappy with many of LC's recent changes, but so far none of them have convinced me that I should be moving funds elsewhere. I did actually open a Prosper account, but didn't fund it yet as I'm not convinced things are better over there. I do also appreciate that Lending Club has a business to run, so even if I don't like some of the changes, if they make the business and the platform healthier and more financially stable, then I understand that.  However, if they begin to erode investor performance and can't achieve acceptable financial results, then I want to know about that as well.  It's possible to be direct with bad news without playing games or insulting people with differing opinions.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Fair enough. So don't play. Perhaps there are others who would enjoy a guessing game & trying to figure things out without being spoon fed an answer right away. Besides, my thread, my rules.
Who exactly have I insulted?
 
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Fred on September 04, 2014, 12:01:37 AM
I noticed another sharp decline in available loans but missed the boat on the volume decline.  Could these declines be related to the impending IPO and a planned (required) reduction in marketing (self-promotion) to potential borrowers in an effort to avoid running afoul of the SEC in some way?

It's called the "Quiet Period", which extends from the time a company files a registration statement with the SEC until SEC declares the registration statement "effective." Securities laws limit what information a company can release to the public during this period, to avoid "gun-jumping."  http://www.sec.gov/answers/quiet.htm

However, the decline was not related to the Quiet Period because it was before the registration.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 04, 2014, 12:03:49 AM
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M
Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

I do find it a bit interesting that this decline occurred a mere 2 months after LC decided to stop providing monthly numbers................something that they had been doing faithfully since their very inception back in 2007. But hey I'm sure the timing of it all was just a coincidence. :)

I don't believe I suggested that the trend wasn't up.  I suggested that the lack of any mention in the main blog area was, shall we say, perplexing considering the mission statement of this blog, which is to teach the public about p2p & provide timely industry news. So is it both good & bad news that is reported here or just the good news?

Is it even necessary to argue that a monthly volume decline after 39 consecutive month to month volume increases should certainly be considered "newsworthy" enough for mention around here? ................. especially when you consider that for 39 consecutive months every single volume increase was considered newsworthy enough to be reported quite prominently?

So all this leaves me with just one question.  Considering that this info has been out for around 6 weeks now, was blog owner Peter just not aware of the volume decline................or did he just decide not to report it for some reason?






                           
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 04, 2014, 07:32:19 AM
I love Peter, mainly because he strikes me as a very upbeat/optimistic guy.  And despite me being a negative Nancy about risk here from time to time, he has always been welcoming to me.  So try to lighten up on the guy himself -- but I do agree it is really strange to tout volume increase every month and then ignore the first one to decline.

I've commented once to Peter on his blog that he needs to avoid Lendit and the forum just being a sales pitch for P2P.  The problem is  putting a bunch of optimists in the room about finance can quickly lead to disaster. 
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 04, 2014, 09:11:02 AM
I've commented once to Peter on his blog that he needs to avoid Lendit and the forum just being a sales pitch for P2P.

Come now, Rawraw.  There is absolutely no danger of this forum being a sales pitch for "just" P2P.  Because it's also a sales pitch for 3rd party tools, other people's half-baked blogs, software development and "consulting" services, $2k-a-plate hogwash conferences (which are in turn just more marketing), ebooks, startup hedge funds, bitcoin payday loans, automated S&P 500 investing schemes, and whatever else I've left out.

The only winners in this game were the people who were selling something to the fools who were trying to make a return on their money via P2P.  You know, the whole intended purpose?  Remember that?
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 04, 2014, 09:15:44 AM
Ha ha Core, while you have a point I think you are reaching
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: BruiserB on September 04, 2014, 09:46:38 AM
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M
Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

Thanks for this Fred93!  Interesting.  I take it these monthly numbers are dug out from the data and not released in monthly total by Lending Club?  My understanding was that Lending Club would only release quarterly numbers (though we can certainly mine the data ourselves for the monthly ones).

The reason I ask is that seeing this makes me wonder if Lending Club was simply "managing" business at the end of the quarter and held back to push more business into July (and thus the 3rd Quarter)??  When they reported monthly numbers, we could see the volume management on a monthly basis, with fewer loans issued in the last 10 days of the month and then a spike at the beginning of the next month.  Now that they are reporting quarterly, are they doing this on a quarter by quarter basis?  Did 2nd Quarter still set a record?  Could they have been pushing end of June business into July to try to ensure that 3rd Quarter is another record?  I'm not saying this is what happened, I'm just asking if it's a possible explanation?  I'm sure Lending Club will want 3rd Quarter to be stellar as it will be right before the IPO.

So the real question is whether Lending Club has, in fact, stumbled a bit, or if they are actively managing quarterly business before the IPO?  We won't know until the 3rd Quarter numbers are released, and I hope we have a good discussion about them at that time!

Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: BruiserB on September 04, 2014, 10:06:26 AM


Fair enough. So don't play. Perhaps there are others who would enjoy a guessing game & trying to figure things out without being spoon fed an answer right away. Besides, my thread, my rules.
Who exactly have I insulted?

And fair enough to you as well.

I would count myself as someone who would prefer an open discussion and not games of hide and seek with the facts.  I don't mind some playful banter, but if there is material news, I would like to see it discussed.

And I do apologize for insinuating that you have insulted anyone.  That comment was meant more as a response to comments made about Peter's moderation of the boards.  I haven't personally seen him shut down any conversation critical of Lending Club or P2P in general.  While he may personally mostly write positively about the industry, I haven't seen him as defensive or censoring of others who have been negative or questioning.  He seems to have recused himself from posting at all other than the weekly summaries of news he posts on Saturdays; That seems appropriate given the fact that he is now also involved in LendAcademy Investments.  At the time his new venture was announced he did acknowledge that he will do as best as he could to walk the appropriate line.  I have only seen him step in when comments became insulting to other individuals.

I am glad to have the participation of both you and core in the forums.  We need your insights and and analysis.  Please be patient and helpful to those of us who may not have already seen what may be clear to you.  Looking forward to good discussions going forward.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 04, 2014, 05:54:17 PM
So where is it documented that there was a decline?

Its in the data that LC releases quarterly.  The last release contained data thru 6/30/2014.  You can download the files from LC, or use Nickelsteamroller or your favorite site to observe.

Jun 2014 $255.9M
May 2014 $280.6M
Apr 2014 $281.2M

Mar 2014 $245.8M

So yes, there was a dip at June, from the prior month, but it is not significant.  Mar and Apr were higher than the months on either side of them.  Look where we were a year ago!

Jun 2013 $158M     !!!

So if you don't get hung up on month to month variations, the trend is up.

BTW, are you sure about these numbers? Because they don't appear to add up to the quarterly volume numbers LC released, which if you recall, was $1.05 billion for the quarter ending June 30th. (see link) The ones you have here add up to $817.7 million for that quarter.  Your March 2014 number is also different from the one reported (see link)

http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-5-billion/
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: kbenson99 on September 04, 2014, 07:39:18 PM
You're missing the inclusion of policy_code 2 loans.

The totals for the 2nd quarter are as follows:

Date    Count   Amount
April         25,246   $326,905,946.10
May         29,097   $350,638,375.70
June        27,835   $328,401,768.67

Amount total of $1,005,946,090.47 matches to what LC is reporting.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 04, 2014, 11:03:37 PM
You're missing the inclusion of policy_code 2 loans.

The totals for the 2nd quarter are as follows:

Date    Count   Amount
April         25,246   $326,905,946.10
May         29,097   $350,638,375.70
June        27,835   $328,401,768.67


Amount total of $1,005,946,090.47 matches to what LC is reporting.

Good job! If you'd like, PM me your name/address etc. & I'll grab one of those t-shirts with the No BS symbols for you :)

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=no+bs+hat&id=DFE87C4B7B6F296F959619EE16290D1C2A5D036D&FORM=IQFRBA

or a new free adu*t dvd I have laying around.

*You must be 18 or over to choose the free dvd.
Previous recipients of free dvds are not eligible for this offer. You know who you are. :)

Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Fred93 on September 04, 2014, 11:38:28 PM
You're missing the inclusion of policy_code 2 loans.

Oh, correct. 

Also missing the small business loans and other things that LC is now doing for which no detail is now reported to us.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 05, 2014, 10:28:49 AM
BruiserB.............No apology necessary, but appreciated anyway. 
I'm one of the last people that would dream of speaking for Core, but I'm confident you'll find that neither Core nor I are regular contributors here anymore,  recent evidence to the contrary non withstanding.
Best wishes for continued success in your p2p investments. 
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 05, 2014, 07:19:34 PM
kbenson, definitely go with the pr0n DVD instead of the shirt.  If you ask nicely (and even if you don't), Dan will give you a blow-by-blow rundown (no pun intended) of all the girls appearing in the film and why he didn't hook up with each one of them.  Each, it seems, has a story.   For example one of the cuties was apparently fleeing my state.  But Dan of course has a reason why he didn't give her the benefit.  "Friends" or some such nonsense.

Back to the topic, and you guys can hassle me all you want, but there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that the March spike was not due to LendingClub "just deciding to ramp things up".  AnilG was nice enough to post data for me back in April I think it was, and I never posted the chart as I promised.  But there is absolutely no question that LC (and Prosper) volume spiked right after that unfortunate incident. 

Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Peter on September 06, 2014, 11:48:08 AM
So all this leaves me with just one question.  Considering that this info has been out for around 6 weeks now, was blog owner Peter just not aware of the volume decline................or did he just decide not to report it for some reason?

I have been aware of this for the past few weeks and I heard back from Lending Club about it a couple of weeks ago (before their IPO). I have been trying to find the time to devote a post to it this week but didn't get to it. Look for a post about the Lending Club numbers this coming week.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 07, 2014, 07:46:03 AM
I have been trying to find the time to devote a post to it this week but didn't get to it.

One wonders if plans for such a post were made before or after Dan broke the news.  But I'll give Peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that the plans were made "a couple of weeks ago" after Lending Club responded to his query.  I can see where he might be pressed for time as he was busy writing more important articles during those couple of weeks:

Funding Circle USA Acquires LeapPay to Speed Loan Approvals (http://www.lendacademy.com/funding-circle-leappay/) - Aug 26th
Save the Date for LendIt 2015 in New York (http://www.lendacademy.com/save-the-date-lendit-2015/) - Aug 29th
Prosper Records More Strong Growth in August (http://www.lendacademy.com/prosper-records-more-strong-growth-in-august/) - Sep 4th

Yes, these gems were no doubt more important than Lending Club decreasing volume for the first time in over 3 years.

Unlike some other posters here, I am fine with playing DanB's guessing game.  If for no other reason the entertainment value.  The suggestion here seems to be that Peter intentionally withheld the news, at least for a while, and I must say the available data doesn't exactly contradict that.  But I have exhausted my guesses as to why.  Whenever I try to explain human behavior the first thing I ask myself is: What does the other person have to gain?  That's where I run into a dead end here.  Perhaps our game show host would be so kind as to offer some hints.  I'd like to buy a vowel, Dan.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Peter on September 07, 2014, 08:42:27 AM
Unlike some other posters here, I am fine with playing DanB's guessing game.  If for no other reason the entertainment value.  The suggestion here seems to be that Peter intentionally withheld the news, at least for a while, and I must say the available data doesn't exactly contradict that.  But I have exhausted my guesses as to why.  Whenever I try to explain human behavior the first thing I ask myself is: What does the other person have to gain?  That's where I run into a dead end here.  Perhaps our game show host would be so kind as to offer some hints.  I'd like to buy a vowel, Dan.

There is a simple explanation for why this post has taken a while to come out. It is because a post like this takes more time to write than the others you have mentioned. Finding the 3-4 hours needed to write a post like this has become increasing difficult for me these days.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: JoeB on September 07, 2014, 09:30:14 AM
I have been trying to find the time to devote a post to it this week but didn't get to it.

One wonders if plans for such a post were made before or after Dan broke the news.  But I'll give Peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that the plans were made "a couple of weeks ago" after Lending Club responded to his query.  I can see where he might be pressed for time as he was busy writing more important articles during those couple of weeks:

Funding Circle USA Acquires LeapPay to Speed Loan Approvals (http://www.lendacademy.com/funding-circle-leappay/) - Aug 26th
Save the Date for LendIt 2015 in New York (http://www.lendacademy.com/save-the-date-lendit-2015/) - Aug 29th
Prosper Records More Strong Growth in August (http://www.lendacademy.com/prosper-records-more-strong-growth-in-august/) - Sep 4th

Yes, these gems were no doubt more important than Lending Club decreasing volume for the first time in over 3 years.

Unlike some other posters here, I am fine with playing DanB's guessing game.  If for no other reason the entertainment value.  The suggestion here seems to be that Peter intentionally withheld the news, at least for a while, and I must say the available data doesn't exactly contradict that.  But I have exhausted my guesses as to why.  Whenever I try to explain human behavior the first thing I ask myself is: What does the other person have to gain?  That's where I run into a dead end here.  Perhaps our game show host would be so kind as to offer some hints.  I'd like to buy a vowel, Dan.

Brutal!   8)

I believe Peter in that he had to wait for LC to reply. An article such as this does require time to write especially if the writer wants to put a positive spin on it or minimize the negativity. Either way LC is still useful to me but no longer in a manner I had hoped to utilize. The volume and quality are just not there anymore. In a few months, I was able to invest $10k quickly in what I would term safer notes with higher yields. I deposited another $2500 in early July and am still working off that deposit; same strategy. I had hoped to invest $30-$50k annually but as of right now that doesn't seem possible. Oh well, it's still entertaining and fun.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 07, 2014, 10:12:47 AM
An article such as this does require time to write especially if the writer wants to put a positive spin on it or minimize the negativity.

I think you nailed it right there, Joe. 

I'm looking at the Sep 4th Prosper post and the Lending Club article could have been similarly short:  A chart and maybe 3-4 paragraphs explaining how this is the first time it's happened in 39 months.  No need to get into the whys and hows and excuses... unless, that is, the author had a compelling $reason to do so.  The numbers could have been left to speak for themselves.  Or better yet let Lending Club dish out their own propaganda if they so choose.

Some things definitely take longer than they should.  For example have you noticed that when you get "creative" with your taxes it takes you 10x as long to fill out the forms?  Of course I wouldn't know about such things, but I hear it is true.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: JoeB on September 07, 2014, 01:35:44 PM
An article such as this does require time to write especially if the writer wants to put a positive spin on it or minimize the negativity.

I think you nailed it right there, Joe. 

I'm looking at the Sep 4th Prosper post and the Lending Club article could have been similarly short:  A chart and maybe 3-4 paragraphs explaining how this is the first time it's happened in 39 months.  No need to get into the whys and hows and excuses... unless, that is, the author had a compelling $reason to do so.  The numbers could have been left to speak for themselves.  Or better yet let Lending Club dish out their own propaganda if they so choose.

Some things definitely take longer than they should.  For example have you noticed that when you get "creative" with your taxes it takes you 10x as long to fill out the forms?  Of course I wouldn't know about such things, but I hear it is true.

i think Peter knows what he's doing for his own enlightened self interest; for the most part. I've learned much from what he's written but have also learned he is most certainly biased. When he trumpeted a lending site making loans to students based on future earnings, their higher grades, as well as FICO, etc., I thought that was highly risky. He disagreed and at that point is when I realized he'll tout anything lending. It's all good according to him and we're all entitled to our opinions.

The one thing I will say that is deceiving are his LC accounts which he displays. He makes no mention of loan terms in his filters. This would lead one to believe he is investing across the board in 36/60 loans which would give someone a 70% investment in 60 month loans. All is great but he mentioned in a post on here that he is 70% in 36 month term loans. I think he should have clarified that in his articles.

No one can be perfect and we can nitpick most anyone. Overall I think, he's a valuable resource.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 07, 2014, 10:00:23 PM
i think Peter knows what he's doing for his own enlightened self interest; for the most part. I've learned much from what he's written but have also learned he is most certainly biased. When he trumpeted a lending site making loans to students based on future earnings, their higher grades, as well as FICO, etc., I thought that was highly risky. He disagreed and at that point is when I realized he'll tout anything lending. It's all good according to him and we're all entitled to our opinions.
Maybe I'm an optimist, but I wouldn't give up on Peter just yet.  Entrepreneurs, like Peter, tend to be very optimistic.  You have to be to take all that risk.  I really think a major blow up is what is going to make people realize this "new lending model" jazz can be quite risky.  I don't think Peter will be happy if he ends up guiding people into something that ends up blowing up, which is likely to happen if he continues to focus on the P2P ventures providing the best yields.  It's just the nature of high yield stuff.

Quote from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jerryjao/2013/12/04/optimism-vs-realism-which-breeds-more-entrepreneurial-success/
While studies show a strong link between successful entrepreneurs and optimism, having too sunny of a disposition can lead to delusions of success. It can spur people to overestimate the market and their abilities to execute, while being unaware of crucial facts or possible setbacks.

Entrepreneurs must learn to balance their inner cheerleader and realist, and it isnít always a clear-cut line down the middle. Some business situations require more optimism than realism, while others call for a different ratio.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Emmanuel on September 08, 2014, 11:17:09 AM
Maybe I'm an optimist, but I wouldn't give up on Peter just yet.  Entrepreneurs, like Peter, tend to be very optimistic.  You have to be to take all that risk.  I really think a major blow up is what is going to make people realize this "new lending model" jazz can be quite risky.  I don't think Peter will be happy if he ends up guiding people into something that ends up blowing up, which is likely to happen if he continues to focus on the P2P ventures providing the best yields.  It's just the nature of high yield stuff.

Totally agree. Yes, Peter is optimistic and tends to see peer lending through rose-colored glasses. So do all the people working in this industry (me and all the LendingRobot team included).

But that's ok. Being optimistic doesn't mean being unrealistic. The one thing I disagree with is that only a major blow-up will show this new lending model is not ideal: with higher interest rates, fixed income securities will become less attractive. The lack of liquidity, or the growing importance of institutional investors (more layers = more fees = less $ for investors) may hurt growth at one point. And so on. Peer Lending could go through a soft-landing instead than a big crash. But disintermediation and lower costs (because the marketplace is Internet-based in this case) win in the long-term; ask your local bookstore. Oops, optimism kicking in again ;-)

Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 08, 2014, 11:23:35 AM
I didn't say it will make the model less than ideal. I think a blow up will make people pay closer attention than they currently do to the risks involved
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Peter on September 08, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
Thanks for your comments everyone. As I have said many times, I am a cheerleader for the space and am most definitely biased. I have made this industry my career and as such I have a vested interest in its success.

But I try hard to be honest and as transparent as possible in everything I do. I think it is unfair to say I will promote "anything lending". I mention companies on Lend Academy who I believe in and who I think would make a good investment. What you never hear about are the many companies I say no to.

As for Rawraw's comment about a blow up I know there are many people concerned about that happening. And I think as investors we should not expect these 10-12% returns to continue forever. There will be a downturn at some point and there will be platforms that go out of business. We all need to heed the risks, myself included, and invest with our eyes wide open.

Finally, I know there are those on this forum who believe I am doing a poor job in many ways and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and are free to express it here. But I will continue to work hard because I love this industry and I believe in sharing what I know. Whether this is worthwhile or not is for you to judge.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 08, 2014, 01:40:45 PM
Finally, I know there are those on this forum who believe I am doing a poor job in many ways and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and are free to express it here. But I will continue to work hard because I love this industry and I believe in sharing what I know. Whether this is worthwhile or not is for you to judge.
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Cries on September 08, 2014, 02:38:42 PM
So is it true that Lending Club actually had a decline in volume back in June? It's first decline after 39 consecutive months of volume increases?  I heard about it a few weeks back, but thought that it couldn't possibly even remotely be true, since something newsworthy like that would have surely been reported immediately on this site by our non investigative reporter/ party planner blog owner.

I'm sorry, I'm being abrasive again. I will excuse myself now before someone here offers me a Kool-Aid :)

The perfect time to IPO!! 
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: Peter on September 08, 2014, 02:43:14 PM
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

Thanks rawraw. Your kind words are appreciated.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: turing on September 08, 2014, 03:43:42 PM
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

I second rawraw.  We know your biases because you make them clear in posts like the one above.  But you let discussion continue even when it does not agree with your viewpoint.

I've seen lots of forum moderators pull out ban hammers on people very quickly and I appreciate that you let them continue...even if at times they question your motives.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 08, 2014, 03:59:49 PM
Finally, I know there are those on this forum who believe I am doing a poor job in many ways and that is fine. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and are free to express it here. But I will continue to work hard because I love this industry and I believe in sharing what I know. Whether this is worthwhile or not is for you to judge.
Just remember the loudest mouths don't always represent the majority.  Most moderators I know of other forums would have responded much differently to some of the criticisms on this forum.  I'd  prefer this moderation style to the vast majority I've experienced.

True, but so what? Just remember that if it wasn't for one of the loudest mouths it's likely you still wouldn't know about this...................4-5 weeks after it actually became available. Yes, we're talking week after week of silence. If I hadn't mentioned it, how many more weeks or months would have gone by?

The question here isn't whether Peter is an optimist or not (as you suggested previously). or even if one is a cheerleader or not. Like I said before, the question is whether the owner of this blog is stating that this blog is a serious p2p news, education site where good & bad news are presented in a timely fashion................... or whether this is as a p2p fan site where supporters come to back slap each other, where good news is immediately presented & bad news gets delayed or kicked under the carpet. The moment I hear from the owner that this is a fan site I'll shut up with any criticism.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 08, 2014, 04:10:34 PM
I view the forum and news site as separate, although there is some spill over.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: DanB on September 08, 2014, 04:20:50 PM
I view the forum and news site as separate, although there is some spill over.

I couldn't agree more. But you know what? I didn't see this news reported in the "news site" until 2 days ago................after I mentioned it a week ago here & after it was out there for 4-5 weeks. What's your definition of "news", I wonder.

I would love to see how blase & understanding people will be one day when the 4-5 week silence costs them money.
Title: Re: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: rawraw on September 08, 2014, 04:22:42 PM
I view the forum and news site as separate, although there is some spill over.

I couldn't agree more. But you know what? I didn't see this news reported in the "news site" until 2 days ago................after I mentioned it a week ago here & after it was out there for 4-5 weeks. What's your definition of "news", I wonder.
The quote you used in the other reply was my comments about Peter on the forum. I wasn't opining on the news section
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: lascott on September 08, 2014, 05:30:00 PM
I get my P2P news from multiple sources just the same as I get my other investment news -- "caveat emptor".  This is just standard practice and common sense by investors.
Title: Re: Volume Decline? Can It Be True?
Post by: core on September 08, 2014, 05:46:02 PM
I would love to see how blase & understanding people will be one day when the 4-5 week silence costs them money.

That has already happened on at least one occasion, Dan, and probably more.  I believe it was when Lending Club stopped allowing the selling of notes when they were in BK.  Or maybe it was the change regarding payment in progress.  I don't remember which one it was, but it matters little now.

That cost several people here a LOT of money.  Me included.  As I recall, Peter said he knew about it ahead of time but it was not an unfair advantage because he did not trade on it.

I do not mean to rehash an old topic.  I merely point it out to say that what you offered as a hypothetical has already happened and may be happening on a continual basis.  I am making no judgements on that... not in this post anyway.