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Lending Club Discussion => Investors - LC => Topic started by: Fred93 on December 16, 2014, 02:10:48 AM

Title: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: Fred93 on December 16, 2014, 02:10:48 AM
I just checked, and my portfolio contains loans with credit trends in the following proportions:

Up     57.6%
Flat     8.7%
Down 33.7%

I guess I'm happy to see more up than down, but I don't know what to make of these numbers.  Would other folks care to post same info?  No way to quickly get this unfortunately, you have to count, from a spreadsheet or API or whatever. 
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: Fred93 on December 16, 2014, 04:49:19 AM
I ran the same analysis on FICO trends in LC's historical loan database.  Here are the results, broken down by year of issue.

Code: [Select]
Down Flat Up Total Down Flat Up
2007 374 59 170 603 62.0% 9.8% 28.2%
2008 1552 101 740 2393 64.9% 4.2% 30.9%
2009 3208 204 1869 5281 60.7% 3.9% 35.4%
2010 7353 466 4718 12537 58.7% 3.7% 37.6%
2011 12797 811 8113 21721 58.9% 3.7% 37.4%
2012 28824 2316 22227 53367 54.0% 4.3% 41.6%
2013 59770 7533 67453 134756 44.4% 5.6% 50.1%
2014 56393 12027 92811 161231 35.0% 7.5% 57.6%

My take:  Depends on when the loan issued.The years that we know had poor loan performance, ie 2007,8,9,10 had more loans with credit scores going down during the loan.  This trend has gradually reversed as the economy has improved. 

Caveats: Many of these loans are uncompleted.  I compared the last FICO to the issue FICO.  I used the 9/2014 database.  I included all loans, no matter what their status.  Loans in later years are mostly not yet completed, so we're comparing changes over different length periods of time (ie for the 2014 loans, the change will only be over a few months, whereas for 2007 loans its almost always over 3 years).  Still, it gives you a direction.

Conclusion re my portfolio: Although I've been an LC investor for many years, I greatly increased my investment during 2014, so my portfolio is heavily weighted with 2014 loans.  Looks like my portfolio credit trends are in line with the whole-LC 2014 portfolio.  Not a very exciting result, but at least I'm not doing worse than everybody else.   8)

PS: Sorry for the left justified numbers.  I just copy/pasted from Excel, and that produces tab-delimited columns, which works reasonably well in a CODE block on the forum.
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: DanB on December 16, 2014, 04:54:25 AM
93% 36 month loans, 7% 60 month..............  Average age of portfolio is 22.6 months.

Up 56%
Flat 6%
Down 38%
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: rawraw on December 16, 2014, 06:31:44 AM
I would post mine, but I also actively sell large FICO drops on Folio.  So the numbers will be skewed and not sure if they will be helpful to you
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: MathGuy on December 16, 2014, 06:48:16 AM
Up     44.4%  586
Flat    20.5%  271
Down 35.1%  463

125 notes are in review, this accounts for the high percentage of "Flat"
In addition I buy about 15% of the loans from Folio with a down credit score trend at discount.

Your Notes purchased on the Lending Club platform
Adjusted Net Annualized Return3 ?:    18.82%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:    19.95%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:    2.1 mos
Number of Notes:    1,194

Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: avid investor on December 16, 2014, 09:27:16 AM
Up 47.35%
Down 43.76%
Flat 8.78%

Oldest notes are > 4 years.

Interesting that few remain unchanged by their LC experience.  :)
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: Fred on December 16, 2014, 10:26:39 AM
Here is mine:

(https://forum.lendacademy.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fl3PJBye.png&hash=2085984ff7af40f33c8e99062632d5b1)
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: lascott on December 16, 2014, 10:38:34 AM
Used InterestRadar to get these numbers.  Breakdown tab then Fico Trend in pull down.

47.03% Up
41.87% Down
11.10% Flat

148 'Not Yet Issued'

90% 36mo
10% 60mo

Avg age 4.2 months.
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: lascott on December 16, 2014, 05:38:29 PM
Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: JoeB on December 16, 2014, 06:46:42 PM
Here are mine:
Up 500
Down 190
Flat 56
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 16, 2014, 08:12:49 PM
Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?

Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: lascott on December 17, 2014, 01:26:46 AM
Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?
Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.
Wait... :) because people don't have any money to buy "non-existent" notes/loans?!?!  My "Note Yet Issued" is higher than it has ever been for a few months and I invest the same at the beginning and middle of each month (around paycheck time).
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: avid investor on December 17, 2014, 07:01:14 AM
Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?
Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.
Wait... :) because people don't have any money to buy "non-existent" notes/loans?!?!  My "Note Yet Issued" is higher than it has ever been for a few months and I invest the same at the beginning and middle of each month (around paycheck time).
My guess is that everyone's "not issued" amount is up because we had very low availability for a few weeks, followed by increased availability, so everybody had a feeding frenzy in a short period of time.  LC underwriting hasn't caught up.
Title: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: BruiserB on December 17, 2014, 02:43:07 PM

Are your  number of 'Not Yet Issued' notes count going higher than normal than the past ebb and flow of high and low periods of notes?
Yes.  My theory is that the longer it takes to return "Not Issued" money, the less demand there is for non-existent loans.
Wait... :) because people don't have any money to buy "non-existent" notes/loans?!?!  My "Note Yet Issued" is higher than it has ever been for a few months and I invest the same at the beginning and middle of each month (around paycheck time).
My guess is that everyone's "not issued" amount is up because we had very low availability for a few weeks, followed by increased availability, so everybody had a feeding frenzy in a short period of time.  LC underwriting hasn't caught up.

And as December is the end of a quarter and year, we have seen LC delay issues once they have made their target numbers to give the following quarter a jump start.

If LC is satisfied with their business for the Quarter/Year, they won't issue many notes for the next 2 weeks....then on Jan 2, you'll see your "not issued" notes issue pretty quickly. 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: Lovinglifestyle on December 17, 2014, 02:51:36 PM
None of mine are in the Not Yet Issued column from Nov. 18 backwards.  This seems pretty standard.  The email announcements of order completion slowed down last week (busy staff, end of quarter).  Doesn't matter to me, I just hope the borrowers get their money in a timely fashion for their needs.

My IR Fico Trend is skewed because the graces and lates I sell are usually trending down.

2478 DOWN
 473 FLAT
3283 UP

6234 TOTAL does not include 1299 sold.
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: turing on December 17, 2014, 03:45:47 PM
"About a quarter of people will see their credit score shift up or down by more than 20 points versus the previous three months, according to Anthony Sprauve, the spokesman for myFICO.com, the consumer education arm of FICO. Seventeen percent of scores move that much each month."

From:
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/credit/why-does-fico-credit-score-change.aspx

Credit scores change quite in small increments.  Up or down a little bit is mostly noise.  The degree of change up or down is more important than simply direction.
Title: Re: LC loan credit trend statistics
Post by: hoggy1 on December 17, 2014, 04:08:23 PM
Down  31%
Flat     17% (9% unissued but I actively sell downs on folio)
Up       51%