Lend Academy Network Forum

Lending Club Discussion => Investors - LC => Topic started by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 09, 2016, 09:21:47 PM

Title: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 09, 2016, 09:21:47 PM
Anybody notice how few 36 month notes have been available? I noticed today at one point there were no B or lower grades available. This seems to be a downward trend with bower ears having a bigger appetite for 60's. Maybe some of the old timers can share some trends they have experienced?
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: FILTER on March 09, 2016, 09:51:34 PM
Where are the NEW NOTES???   Yes I have noticed:

For the past 3 days, at least for the 2PM and 6PM drops, there were zero notes posted.

Even with High Risk settings/filtering such as:

Monthly Income = $0
Min Length of Emplyment = 0
Inquiries 6 months = 5
Notes: B, C, D, E, F & G
Review Status: Unchecked
Public Records: Unchecked
Collections Excluding Medical = 2+
Notes: 36 mo & 60 month

I would offer that this is intentional to either capitulate to big money, balance spreadsheets, focus associates efforts elsewhere, or to foster/encourage the funding of older notes.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 09, 2016, 11:02:21 PM
Didn't believe you until I looked.  Currently 29 36 month loans available on the platform, all As.  The other 1000+ are 60 month loans graded B or lower.

Someone a while back showed data where it looked like LC was smoothing loan issuance around the end of the quarter.  I wonder if they are doing that now?
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: hzhou9 on March 09, 2016, 11:17:16 PM
Didn't believe you until I looked.  Currently 29 36 month loans available on the platform, all As.  The other 1000+ are 60 month loans graded B or lower.

Someone a while back showed data where it looked like LC was smoothing loan issuance around the end of the quarter.  I wonder if they are doing that now?
Sorry I am new here - what do you mean by "LC was smoothing loan issuance around the end of the quarter"? I am not sure whether I understood it correctly.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Booleans on March 10, 2016, 07:36:14 AM
For the past 3 days, at least for the 2PM and 6PM drops, there were zero notes posted.

I was under the impression that new loans are posted at 6 AM, 9 AM, 12 PM, and 3 PM PST. Is that not the case?

Never mind, I see it's 2 AM, 6 AM, 10 AM, and 2 PM PST.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 10, 2016, 08:02:57 AM
Didn't believe you until I looked.  Currently 29 36 month loans available on the platform, all As.  The other 1000+ are 60 month loans graded B or lower.

Someone a while back showed data where it looked like LC was smoothing loan issuance around the end of the quarter.  I wonder if they are doing that now?
Sorry I am new here - what do you mean by "LC was smoothing loan issuance around the end of the quarter"? I am not sure whether I understood it correctly.
There was some evidence that LC was throttling the loans issued around the end of the quarter.  The guess is that this is to meet Wall Street expectations.  Search the forum around last Dec/Jan and you should find a discussion on it.

If that is the case, and that is what is going on now, then my SWAG; LC has made their number of new loans for the quarter.  They have cut back marketing (huge costs, go look at their financials) which directly translates into lower loan applications.  But this is a guess predicated on a bunch of IF's.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 10, 2016, 09:03:16 AM
6 A.M. loan drop, only 39 new loans, 33 were 36's and 6 60's......
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: fliphusker on March 10, 2016, 12:58:04 PM
Made my deposit last Friday, was supposed to hit today, but alas tomorrow.  Hope this is not a reoccurring week long theme.  But under 900 loans on LC site, and only 8 falling into my filter, guess not a big deal anyway.  :(
Will see if there is a large amount on Friday and Saturday like last week. 
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 10, 2016, 01:03:16 PM
Looks like a few more dropping on the 10:00 a.m., picked up 12 in the filter for 36.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: balto21 on March 10, 2016, 02:52:54 PM
Any updates on this???? I went from 6 days to fund based on my filters at NSR and i am not at 10.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 10, 2016, 03:02:41 PM
Any updates on this???? I went from 6 days to fund based on my filters at NSR and i am not at 10.
Are we talking about the same topic here?
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: balto21 on March 10, 2016, 06:48:20 PM
Yes. A big portion of my buying is 36 month loans. and I have not invested in any loans in 2 days through automatic investing.

When i dont buy loans, the amount of days to use up my funds increases which is why I worded my comment the way that i did...

again today, no loans were invested in. Wondering if everyone else still sees a limit in supply for the 36 month loans.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 10, 2016, 07:05:49 PM
Yes. A big portion of my buying is 36 month loans. and I have not invested in any loans in 2 days through automatic investing.

When i dont buy loans, the amount of days to use up my funds increases which is why I worded my comment the way that i did...

again today, no loans were invested in. Wondering if everyone else still sees a limit in supply for the 36 month loans.
I understand now, I'm exclusive 36 and have seen a huge decline in available notes[/.color]
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: michael49 on March 10, 2016, 08:06:44 PM
I have multiple portfolios/filters that I alternate between.  One of them (my most conservative) is all 36 month B&C notes - I picked up 11 new 36m notes today (all B though).
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: FILTER on March 10, 2016, 09:55:16 PM
After reading the above posts its noted that note posting is being controlled or being held in Que.

The 2PM(PST) & 6PM(PST) note drops were only 36 month Notes.  Most of the notes posted were submitted: “Loan Submitted”: 3/3/16 & 3/4/16 (7 days old).
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 11, 2016, 12:14:49 AM
Didn't believe you until I looked.  Currently 29 36 month loans available on the platform, all As.  The other 1000+ are 60 month loans graded B or lower.

Someone a while back showed data where it looked like LC was smoothing loan issuance around the end of the quarter.  I wonder if they are doing that now?

Any quotable data on this smoothing loan issuance?
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 11, 2016, 01:35:00 PM
Looks like an improvement of loan drops, 10:00 a.m. picked up 12 notes, also had 5 at the 6:00 a.m. drop.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Rob L on March 15, 2016, 02:42:31 PM
Anyone wondering where the 36's were got their answer over the past four days:
Thu 3/10 thru Tue 3/15 and continuing.
Why there was a hiatus who knows, but plenty of listings now.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 15, 2016, 03:29:14 PM
Anyone wondering where the 36's were got their answer over the past four days:
Thu 3/10 thru Tue 3/15 and continuing.
Why there was a hiatus who knows, but plenty of listings now.
I agree, we've had a huge load of loans dropped since late last week.  I ran out of cash with a significant number of loans passing my criteria sitting in funding all weekend.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Small Fish Big Pond on March 15, 2016, 03:36:39 PM
Yes they are back, let's chalk it up to an market anomally!
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: tom242 on March 16, 2016, 09:56:44 AM
Many more notes are now "Approved" when they first appear.  I believe the dearth of 36 month notes occurred as they transitioned to this new process.  I like it.  My Committed Cash value is now $450 while it was usually $1000+, and my "Notes Not Issued" are down also. 
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 16, 2016, 11:38:45 AM
Many more notes are now "Approved" when they first appear.  I believe the dearth of 36 month notes occurred as they transitioned to this new process.  I like it.  My Committed Cash value is now $450 while it was usually $1000+, and my "Notes Not Issued" are down also.
That depends.  Did they loosen the standards for early approval or are they holding more loans until they are approved?  The second the much preferred to the first.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: PhilGD on March 16, 2016, 01:05:37 PM
What would be the purpose of holding loans until they are approved, though? And why do it with some loans and not with others?
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 16, 2016, 02:04:56 PM
What would be the purpose of holding loans until they are approved, though? And why do it with some loans and not with others?
Reduce the number of loans that get funded but never issue. 

Another option is that they streamlined their process for approving loans without compromising approval standards.  I would be skeptical if LC told me this.

Or there is a new definition of "Approved" and the final review that always happened now takes more things into account.  I have never seen a loan that was listed as approved that failed to issue, though.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: jennrod12 on March 16, 2016, 02:33:54 PM
Maybe they were holding the loans back for a different reason and decided to process them for approval while they were waiting.

We're all just guessing!

Jenn
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Rob L on March 17, 2016, 06:23:08 PM
Supply has been unprecedented the past week. I have never invested so much so quickly since I began in 2013.
Back then I was buying A's and B's in addition to the D's and E's that I buy now.
I think LC's interest rate increases in these risky loans has made them much more attractive to me.
Couple more drops and I'll be out of money.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 18, 2016, 08:25:28 AM
Supply has been unprecedented the past week.
...
Couple more drops and I'll be out of money.
With all the supply, I've tightened up my criteria significantly  It's like being at an all you can eat buffet -- just don't fill up on the cheap stuff!
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: rawraw on March 18, 2016, 09:24:28 AM
Supply has been unprecedented the past week.
...
Couple more drops and I'll be out of money.
With all the supply, I've tightened up my criteria significantly  It's like being at an all you can eat buffet -- just don't fill up on the cheap stuff!
If you don't like them with abundant supply, are you sure you should like them when there isn't  a lot of notes? I don't know the answer for you, but in fixed income that tends to lead to bad results and inaccurately pricing risk. So figured I'd just pose the question

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 18, 2016, 09:37:58 AM
If you don't like them with abundant supply, are you sure you should like them when there isn't  a lot of notes? I don't know the answer for you, but in fixed income that tends to lead to bad results and inaccurately pricing risk. So figured I'd just pose the question

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

No, all I'm saying is that I am high pointing the notes that are being offered.  My base filters drop all notes I think are crap. 

So if I normally got 8% pass rate on a 50 note drop, then 4 notes would pop out.  Getting a consistent 125 notes, that means I am getting 10 or so per drop.  But I have a strong suspicion that more notes are coming in the next drop.  Instead of filling up on the 10 passing notes in drop one, I tighten the filter so that I only get 3-4 per drop.  This leads me to buying the creme of the crop and still keeping my cash balance low.

Or said another way, I was buying the top 10%.  Now I'm buying the top 5%.  The top 10% are profitable, but the top 5% are more so. 

The trade off of waiting for better notes vs cash drag has dramatically swung to being on the side of waiting.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: Rob L on March 18, 2016, 02:15:28 PM
I resisted the temptation to lower my standards and cash just kept building up.
That was okay by me. Now volume's through the roof and I am out of money.
I'm decreasing my note size to enhance diversity. I'll see if I'm able to stay fully invested with $25 notes.
Been buying an awful lot of E's lately; a result of the interest rate increase.
I expect volume to dry up as usual when we get closer to the end of the quarter.
Title: Re: Where are the 36's?
Post by: dompazz on March 18, 2016, 02:57:27 PM
I resisted the temptation to lower my standards and cash just kept building up.
That was okay by me. Now volume's through the roof and I am out of money.
I'm decreasing my note size to enhance diversity. I'll see if I'm able to stay fully invested with $25 notes.
Been buying an awful lot of E's lately; a result of the interest rate increase.
I expect volume to dry up as usual when we get closer to the end of the quarter.
I will second that I am seeing a skew to the lower grades.

It's worth mentioning that I have an allocation target across grades.  So even if 10 loans pass my score and filter, I could buy 0 because I don't need the grades they are in.  If they are all in a single grade, but I only need 1 loan there, then I would only buy the highest ranked.