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Messages - investforfreedom

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1
Investors - LC / Re: Wierd goings on at LC
« on: July 01, 2015, 09:02:48 AM »
It's just a hunch.

LC might be holding off releasing new loans because there are far too many leftovers that need to be filled.  Everybody is gunning for the best loans with their automated systems.  It's certainly good for us when there is an abundance of loans to choose from, but it's not going to work for LC if only the best loans get filled. 

2
General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Investing in Commercial Real Estate
« on: December 01, 2014, 09:25:19 AM »
https://fundrise.com/

Sounds interesting.  Apparently the Jobs Act will make the process much easier.

Why would I want to do extra work myself and take on some unknown risks for 12-14% return if I already have a REIT fund like the following producing 12.6% over the past 15 years? 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VGSIX&region=usa&culture=en-US

3
Investors - LC / Re: Any New Loans Lately?
« on: November 30, 2014, 07:52:59 PM »
It happens to Prosper as well.  Not only are there fewer loans for both platforms but also the quality of the higher risk loans has deteriorated--especially for Prosper.  It is common to see loan listings with 2 public records and 40-50% debt-to-income ratios on Prosper. 

It's probably seasonal, but it is also likely that lending growth has reached a plateau for now.  My returns for the two platforms have also been declining, with my LC account doing better than my Prosper account, 12%+ v. 10%+.  I am still doing this manually, but at some point, it will no longer be worth the time and effort, especially with some of my best stock funds cranking out 12% on average for the past 10 years.




4
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: Bit Coin as an Investment?
« on: February 25, 2014, 11:31:46 AM »
Bitcoin bubble had burst before they have this exchange-specific issue.  Just eyeball the historical bitcoin chart.  It shot up from $200 at the beginning of the November to over $1200 by the end of that same month and now it is trading at less than half of its value.  You can compare that to the Nasdaq historical chart at around the year 2000.  They look almost identical.  This Mt. Gox snafu is merely one of the straws that are breaking the camel's back. 

Time will tell who is right.  But I would stick to time-tested assets: stocks, real estate, gold and silver.  If you have to be so gung ho about this, keep your bitcoin portfolio small: you should definitely not use the money you set aside for your kids' education to invest in something like that.

If the NYSE goes dark, your stocks are not worthless.  These people were fools for storing their bitcoins with a 3rd party, when there was little reason to do so in the first place.  This news has nothing to do with BTC itself.  No bubble has burst.  (No, I don't own any.)

5
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: Bit Coin as an Investment?
« on: February 25, 2014, 08:34:27 AM »
"Gox horror story thread - How much did you lose?"

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yv26o/gox_horror_story_thread_how_much_did_you_lose/


Now I would probably take a bitcoin for $1 just for keepsake, as a monument to the neverending human follies that go the way of the tulips mania and the tech craze at the end of the last century.  But, unfortunately, there is no such thing as foreclosure or short sale to this type of digital assets, unlike your house with some redeemable value. 

I hate to say, "I already told you!"  But "popular bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox went blank Monday evening, with reports saying that trading was halted earlier and that the website may have been deleted."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mt-gox-bitcoin-site-disappears-2014-02-25?dist=lbeforebell

The bubble bursts.

6
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: Bit Coin as an Investment?
« on: February 25, 2014, 02:07:19 AM »
I hate to say, "I already told you!"  But "popular bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox went blank Monday evening, with reports saying that trading was halted earlier and that the website may have been deleted."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mt-gox-bitcoin-site-disappears-2014-02-25?dist=lbeforebell

7
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: February 14, 2014, 08:37:53 AM »
At the time of writing this post, there are only 14 listings.  As I said in an earlier comment, there is already so much money ready to invest from the retail side that this recent change that has affected the institutional players unfavorably (by limiting them to 10% per loan) doesn't dampen the overall demand.  It seems to be taking a bit more time for the loans to get filled, but this arrangement works much better for us--and quite possibly for large investors as well, since I presume that there are more than 2 big players who want to participate. 

I have been very critical of Prosper's management, but I commend them for making this change that was long overdue. 

I know the current management at Prosper wants to turn the platform profitable as early as it can, and I don't know what kind of agreement it has struck with the institutional players in order to get their backing.  But the truth of the matter is that there is already so much money ready to invest from the retail side that it isn't necessary to kowtow to institutions by letting them grab 95%(?) of the loans.  (Even if it was 80%, it would still be excessive.)

8
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: February 11, 2014, 06:28:08 PM »
Hopefully, it was in part--however small--due to our collective rant here that contributed to their decision to level the playing field for retail investors: http://www.lendacademy.com/prosper-making-some-needed-changes-for-retail-investors/

It remains to be seen whether Prosper can withstand pressure from the institutions.


9
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: February 02, 2014, 02:44:40 PM »
I think this line of thinking is full of unproven assumptions. It is assumed that (1) higher risk loans are always better and (2) earning 6-10% interest is a waste of time.

In my opinion, Prosper still provides an excellent return. Over the long term, a portfolio compounding at 8% should make an investor very happy.

As for (2), I said earning 7% handpicking notes is a waste of time.  I didn't say earning 7%  auto-invest is a waste of time, i. e., if you can indeed get 7% given all the frontrunning and institutional hoarding going on right now with APIs and what not.

As for (1), you are perhaps an extraordinarily good note picker.  But as far as I am concerned, I have been using Prosper-Stats and formerly Lendstats to invest the way I see straight off their data.  But my return has been going down from 15% to 8%.  Here is a breakdown of my seasoned returns:

AA: 5%
A: 6.26%
B: 6.4%
C: 12.2%
D:10.8%
E: 14.43%
HR: 1.5% 

With the exception of HR, higher risk loans do produce higher returns.  (And I don't sell notes on Folio on Prosper.)  This is why I said you would be lucky if you could get 7% investing in AA-B loans.  The data speaks for itself. How is that an unproven assumption?  At least it is proven for me. 

10
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: January 25, 2014, 12:43:36 PM »
What is it that is worth getting so excited about for you and me as small investors?  Probably the only consolidation is knowing that social lending is not just a fad, so except for individual platform risks, you should be okay holding good notes for the next few years.


What is worth is that you can still consistently earn upwards of 6-12% using social lending. Compare that to the S&P, savings accounts, CD's, or even "lending money for Uncle Ted's newest scheme", and you look pretty savvy.

Thanks for the compliment.  You can earn 10-12% only if you can get the best higher risk loans.  But I doubt whether you can do 9% if you are hard pressed to find even good C loans, plus the plunging rates across all loan grades on Prosper.  Of course, even 7% is nothing to sneeze at, but again, as I said, 7% is just not worth the time handpicking.  And it might come a time when you can't even get 7% if you do it through AIP or auto-invest, again because of the frontrunning issue and the limited loan pool for small investors.

11
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: January 24, 2014, 01:55:53 PM »
Not trying to jump on a band wagon but I just pulled money out of Prosper for the first time in 2 1/2 years.  I too want to hand pick my notes, and I can be pretty fast at doing that, but I'm not fast enough anymore.  Gone are the better days for us small and old fashioned (hand picking) investors at Prosper.

$5 says that Prosper will be acquired by either LendingClub or a large bank within 5 years.

My excitement over p2p lending has been waning in proportion to the ever-rising enthusiasm in the media and the main street.  LC says that 1/3 of money invested comes from institutional investors and 1/3 from individuals with high net worth, with  only 1/3 from retail investors, whereas Prosper has 95%(?) of loans grabbed by deep pockets.  What is it that is worth getting so excited about for you and me as small investors?  Probably the only consolidation is knowing that social lending is not just a fad, so except for individual platform risks, you should be okay holding good notes for the next few years.

12
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: January 24, 2014, 08:51:41 AM »
The problem with this type of frontrunning is that it is a zero-sum, winner-takes-all kind of a game.  If you are just a tad slower, your subscribers will flee in droves, since as retail investors, they are fighting over crumbs left over by institutional investors. Many will never get a piece regardless, and they will drop your service in a heartbeat if they don't keep getting what they want.  And then all your capital investment could come to nothing.  It might be a good idea to just sell this business once it has become successful rather than spending tons of money upgrading this and that constantly to stay in this game.  Anyway, just my two cents' worth here.


2 seconds is quite fast, but you guys had better keep it up.  I am talking about this type of competition from the big boys that you are up against: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2424495,00.asp   (I traded stocks for a while.) We are seeing more and more of technology platforms like yours popping up as social lending catches on.  Not only do you have to have the fastest APIs, you've got to have the fastest servers as well as the nearest locations to LC's (or Prosper's) main frames in order to stay ahead.  Seconds will inevitably become micro-seconds.  And only the best 1 or 2 technology platforms will eventually survive in this cut-throat type of frontrunning competition.  And chances are the big boys will come out on top.  Do you have what it takes to beat them?  I hope you do. 

Agreed, it will heat up for sure. And that will be interesting.

Albeit I don't see it reaching HFT levels before a little while, since for the moment being it's impossible to churn a lot of assets very quickly. HTF is not so much about snatching up the best stocks before others, but about going in front of suckers and reselling to them!

13
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: January 23, 2014, 08:53:24 AM »
2 seconds is quite fast, but you guys had better keep it up.  I am talking about this type of competition from the big boys that you are up against: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2424495,00.asp   (I traded stocks for a while.) We are seeing more and more of technology platforms like yours popping up as social lending catches on.  Not only do you have to have the fastest APIs, you've got to have the fastest servers as well as the nearest locations to LC's (or Prosper's) main frames in order to stay ahead.  Seconds will inevitably become micro-seconds.  And only the best 1 or 2 technology platforms will eventually survive in this cut-throat type of frontrunning competition.  And chances are the big boys will come out on top.  Do you have what it takes to beat them?  I hope you do.   

As for myself, I still like to eyeball all the loans I invest in.  There are far too many variables I take into account for me to confidently allow bots to do the investing.  For example, many on this platform avoid states like FL or CA, but I do in some cases.  And for D, E, F loans, I invest mostly in 60-month periods, but I also invest in 36- month loans because sometimes, they are better.  It all depends. 

Sorry, but 30 seconds is not equal footing.  Especially if the shopping cart exploit is not used, and to my knowledge you are not using it.

Of course not. We're under 2s with the LC API, and aim for comparable speed with Prosper.

14
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: January 22, 2014, 08:59:19 AM »
I know the current management at Prosper wants to turn the platform profitable as early as it can, and I don't know what kind of agreement it has struck with the institutional players in order to get their backing.  But the truth of the matter is that there is already so much money ready to invest from the retail side that it isn't necessary to kowtow to institutions by letting them grab 95%(?) of the loans.  (Even if it was 80%, it would still be excessive.)

What began as a revolutionary idea, as a kind of social revolt against the dominant banking practice is once again lost to the colonizing power of deep pockets of the same system.  It is futile, my friends.

It's an uphill battle, but I'm confident technology will make Wall Street's sophistication available to individuals. Look at what happened in the travel industry: travel agents were replaced first by a handful of big websites, then it became easy enough for many, small and niche sites to sprout as well.

I assume you mean Priceline, Travelocity, Expedia, etc., but this is comparing apples to oranges.  No big banks, institutions or individuals with deep pockets will buy up tens of thousands of airline tickets or make thousands of hotel reservations at one time at these sites on a daily basis for the purpose of generating profits.  But they can soak up all the good loan listings at no time on Prosper or LC.  For Wall Street, the latter is a far superior way to make money.  And in fact that is how the investment bankers make money, not the least of which is to engage in high frequency trading. 

15
Investors - P / Re: Prosper--OK, you win!
« on: January 21, 2014, 10:49:39 AM »
I know the current management at Prosper wants to turn the platform profitable as early as it can, and I don't know what kind of agreement it has struck with the institutional players in order to get their backing.  But the truth of the matter is that there is already so much money ready to invest from the retail side that it isn't necessary to kowtow to institutions by letting them grab 95%(?) of the loans.  (Even if it was 80%, it would still be excessive.)

What began as a revolutionary idea, as a kind of social revolt against the dominant banking practice is once again lost to the colonizing power of deep pockets of the same system.  It is futile, my friends.






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