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Messages - rawraw

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Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: May 13, 2020, 07:21:39 AM »
I doubt LC will give any guidance on this, since it is forward looking.

How would I approach it? Well I'd start with the base charge off rates for the loan attributes in 2008 time frame. This would give us a base rate of charge off by risk characteristics.   From there you can make judgements on whether to adjust it up or down depending on the trends in the economy.

They won't just keep deferring, that is typically a frowned upon lending practice. But there are unique rules being applied now, so it may defer longer than we expect. I'd assume LC is making this up as they go. I work for a consumer lender and we are making it up as we go as well

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General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC workforce reduction
« on: May 09, 2020, 11:23:14 AM »
One thing banks do in crisis is shrink assets. This keeps capital ratios strong. So I am not surprised they don't want to grow a bunch in consumer loans, but the drop is quite amazing

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This is why origination businesses trade at lower multiples. Very volatile earnings stream

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Investors - LC / Re: LC interest rates huge update 3/30/2020
« on: April 15, 2020, 09:08:30 PM »
Oh wow. Seems like a great opportunity

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General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Is It Time To Use The 'R' Word?
« on: March 19, 2020, 12:27:39 PM »
I'd say yes we are in a recession.  Will this last 2 quarters to be called a recession?  Unsure about that.

I think banks will be OK.  I'm starting to buy bank equity and debt exposures.

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Introductions / Re: Open minded lender needed. Here's my situation!
« on: February 29, 2020, 02:31:43 PM »
You are going to need to look into Subprime type lenders. If it's your only BK, some lenders will like it because you can't file BK again for some time. Good luck

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Foliofn - LC / Re: folio loan model prices
« on: February 20, 2020, 10:34:55 AM »
If  you want to trade on it, you'll need to do it more than once a day. Mispriced notes are bought quite quickly

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General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Lending Club Is A Bank
« on: February 20, 2020, 08:06:44 AM »
Fred, I think they meant institutional debt providers, not purchasers of loans
 
Without a portfolio of loans, LendingClub will have extreme volatility of earnings. Balance sheet interest income will mitigate that issue a bit

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A consistent theme we have seen is younger countries skip the innovations of old and go straight to the new stuff. This has to do with a lack of infrastructure and generally the old innovations take more infrastructure. For example, you see this in many countries where they skipped land lines straight to cell phones. In China, everyone is using Fintech.

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Investors - LC / Re: What's Your LC ROI?
« on: February 15, 2020, 02:52:34 PM »
There is no fact on whether the returns are good or bad. It really depends on the alternatives, your portfolio, and your requirements. Will it be the highest returns possible? No, that would be equities. But perhaps you need more predictable income streams or you want to reduce the volatility of your investments. For me, I'm still a relatively young person although not as young as I once was 😂  and the returns were good enough to be my fixed income alternative earlier. But due to the tax issue and the fact I've decided just to go all in on equities (more or less), I don't have need for an investment like this. But I manage an account for my parents near retirement that suits their requirements very well. It really depends

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Investors - LC / Re: What's Your LC ROI?
« on: February 15, 2020, 06:55:17 AM »
I don't have my ROI.  I do know that I was involved for ~9 years, but my balance was only large for a year or two since I started as a broke college student.  I have withdrawn 21% more money than I have deposited.  When my account was small, I had zero losses for a long time (because there used to be a way to sell notes before they went bad).  As my account grew in size, that corresponded with the negative trends in LC performance.  I didn't have nearly as risky mix as many on this board, but I had several negative months.  I have always invested in a taxable account and the swing in losses made me hit my tax deduction threshold.  Moved the money to leveraged SP 500 funds, which are more tax efficient.  I know the prior sentence may sound like a joke, but it is an underutilized strategy for buy and hold.

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I don't know much about the Chinese financial system, but I suspect part of the reason it grew faster is not just regulatory differences but also they have less established means of accessing credit. Our lending ecosystem is quite mature

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Investors - LC / Re: LC is ending whole-loan note sales next week
« on: January 24, 2020, 06:18:06 PM »
Having a portfolio like Fred is a life goal of mine.  #WholeLoanMoney

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How do you determine feature importance Fred?

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