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Messages - Randawl

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Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: October 06, 2016, 09:49:25 PM »
Pretty sure they closed that loophole shortly before IPO.  Prior to that, it was the major secret sauce for some of the posters here who magically had accounts that would never, ever, under any circumstance, have even a late - much less a default - inside their portfolios.
. . .
ETA:  I don't know any of the above to be true.  I just have a fanciful imagination or a long memory - or both.

You are correct about them "fixing" that.

Got another survey from LC.  I think this one was because I've made several withdrawals lately (for no reason other than planned moving of money around).

Among others, one of the questions asked why I had been making withdrawals lately.  It gave me 10 or so choices and the closest was "for other purpose."  The last question gave a text box asking "What could we do to improve your experience" and here is what I typed:

Less of a whole>>fractional imbalance.

A reversion to the days where data transparency was . . . well, more transparent.

Access to Policy Code 2 loans.

Establishment of a BRV/E (Bankruptcy Remote Vehicle/Entity).

A CSA (Credit Support Agreement) akin to that offered to certain Certificate Investors.

I know it was a long shot, but I thought I'd try!

On another note, hello again to those who are still here from several years ago, and to the people who have joined since!

[Edit: Grammar]   

Investors - LC / Re: 2015 Tax Guide for retail investors changes (8949)
« on: January 30, 2016, 01:34:44 PM »
For what it's worth, I have always entered only the subtotals that are in bold with the description of Non-business bad debt (Lending Club Notes).  I have done this since 2012 and have not (yet?) had a problem. 

I figure that if I am "audited" I'll just send them the stack of papers, no big deal.

Investors - LC / Re: Managed Retail = 40% of volume
« on: January 12, 2016, 06:57:51 PM »
I was reading the Podcast transcript the other day between Peter and Renaud and want to see if my understanding is correct.

Peter asked Renaud about the new LCOI product.  Renaud then started explaining that 20-25% of volume goes to self directed retail customers and 40% of volume goes to managed retail.  I have attached a screen shot of the transcript.

Does that mean that those who use a third party like lendingrobot get access to 40% of the volume that a self directed retail customer does not get to see?  Or is he saying that those brokers who use LCOI get access to 40% of volume we do not?

I currently do use a third party to pick loans as I have the ability to log in 4 times a day at feeding times, run my filters and then individually review each loan.  But over the last 18-24 months volume has been down and I am forced to increase my investment per loan to keep cash invested.  I do not need a third party to run my filters at feeding times, but if I can gain access to 40% of volume that I normally would not see, that may change my mind.

Anyone know the answer?

I had a discussion with one third party provider to see if they could simply run my filters and "hold" the loans for the allowed 30 minutes (it seems like 30 minutes is the amount of time) and release them if I do not press the place order button, but they said that was not an option.  Anyone know of a third party (that falls under the managed retail category) that can do that so I can gain access to that 40% (if my understanding is correct). 

Maybe a better question is who/what falls under the managed retail category?

Thanks in advance.

Perhaps I am the one misunderstanding, but to me that is saying that 20-25% of the loan volume (at least that which is potentially available to retail investors because they are surely not counting policy code 2 loans and others in the denominator) is bought by self directed retail and that 40% is bought by retail investors that are using NSR, BV, PC, LR, IR, and the like.

Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: December 12, 2015, 10:09:24 PM »
So I wondered if LC has begun charging off loans more quickly.

These data are almost all of my charge offs (about 460 of them), not a map of Florida. A few of my charge offs do not have a loan status date and were omitted.
Charge offs do seem to be happening more quickly after last payment. I cannot rule out some natural cause and have not looked closely at the results.
Here is one loan from the chart very recently charged off:

I don't have data to show but anecdotally my experience has been the same.

Investors - LC / Re: Expected Return Number
« on: August 04, 2015, 09:02:01 PM »
Yea, maybe they made a change to some formula.  Or, it's a bug.  Not that it matters, but mine also dropped a chunk when a deposit hit.

Investors - LC / Re: Funds or DIY
« on: August 03, 2015, 10:32:23 PM »
Wow! 3%

Ridiculous. For fixed income product that is insane.

Insane only if they are low on the spectrum of leverage.  The returns would be in the double digits at perhaps, 2x leverage.

Investors - LC / Re: Nurses
« on: August 03, 2015, 10:24:58 PM »
I'm married to an ER nurse who is returning to school for her masters this fall.  I've had an opportunity to interact with many of her coworkers over the years.  I've found nurses are no less kooky or prone to making poor economic decisions than the general population.  However, as a group, they tend to be more responsible and committed to doing the 'right" thing after their bad decisions than the general population.  A nurse will generally take a second PT shift at another hospital to meet financial obligations before just not paying a bill.  All other things being equal, I always pick a nurse over another job description.

This anecdotal stuff is probably a lousy way to make economic judgments, but it works for me.

I am in the medical profession and have also given a slight favorable bias in selection toward those who list nurse as job title - irrationally or not!

Introductions / Re: About damn time I joined.....
« on: July 29, 2015, 10:33:56 PM »
Welcome!           :)

Investors - LC / Re: A New Record?
« on: July 14, 2015, 01:37:26 PM »
My buddy pays his mortgage with his HELOC.  He has figured out he will save X amount of dollars over the long term (because the HELOC interest rate is even lower than his mortgage).  He pays a chunk of his mortage with the HELOC and then pays the HELOC off with his normal mortgage payments.  When the HELOC gets to zero he repeats.

Is he part of the Greek government?

Why doesn't he just pay off the mortgage?

If I had a lot of cash, I know that I WOULD NOT pay off the mortgage.  Let's see... 3.375% mortgage (tax deductible) vs. 9% income at LC for investing the cash .... Hmmm...

I could see the spread becoming almost negligible a small segment of the population.  For those that can not deduct their mortgage interest, are past income limits for traditional/ROTH IRA's, and whose tax rates on that 9% (which is a bit optimistic for the average person on a completed portfolio) when including state and federal approach ~40-50% or more.  The 5-9% most people will hope to end up making (assuming no downturn) results in a spread that is not too attractive considering the risks.

Investors - LC / Re: Moving to a non-Lending Club state
« on: July 10, 2015, 05:46:59 PM »
Does anyone know the implications for investing in LC notes if I am moving from a state that allows investing to a state that does not? Suppose I decided not to update my address on Lending Club. Could I continue to invest for a while without anyone knowing?

Almost certainly yes.  LC never physically mails you anything.

But check out this old thread for some other people's thoughts - I did some digging to find this one!

LC also never verifies the address that you enter.  You can try it for yourself, you can change your address in your LC profile willy nilly!  Obviously though, there is a risk.

Investors - LC / Re: Wierd goings on at LC
« on: July 01, 2015, 12:05:51 PM »
LC used to fund loans themselves that were about to expire and did so quite frequently a few years ago before investor demand really picked up.  That got me thinking since you mentioned that it seems to have been the oldest ones.

Investors - LC / Re: Lot of loans but not quality loans
« on: June 25, 2015, 06:58:36 PM »
Is the person in charge of the dial on how many notes go into fractional schizophrenic?!?!?

After observing the last few days, I would say yes, precisely.

Huge # loans dumped in all of a sudden, and almost all allocated to fractional.  Hard to fathom.  My best guess is that this flow might be a result of having turned on some new source.  Hard to guess why they are allocating them all to fractional. Perhaps there's something about these loans that they think the whole-loan market won't like?  Perhaps they are unable to sell these loans in the whole-loan market because the new source placed some legal restrictions on the loans that would not permit it.  Just my guesses.  You're welcome to your own.

Here's a few:

1.  So that they can take this snapshot in time and justify the demonstrable increase in allocation to Whole over the last few years.  Some of these loans may not fully fund.  They could point to this and claim insufficient demand from the retail investor side.     ;)

2.  One or many of their large whole loan investor(s) decided to discontinue additional purchases for whatever reason(s).

3.  A concerted effort to massage (rather boldly) some statistic(s).

LC CEO wanted to hang out with Bill Clinton and wanted a picture with him to put in his office so that he can boast to all his buddies. He most probably donated few 100Ks of LC shareholder money to Clinton Foundation for the privilege.

During the presidential election, LC will issue business and personal loans to all the consultants and contractors working on Clinton campaign. The loans will be guaranteed by the Clinton Foundation (with the LC donated money) if Clinton is not elected or forgiven by LC if Clinton gets elected.

Once Clinton gets elected, LC CEO will become head of small business administration and will make sure all SBA loans will be issued through LC. LC CEO will lobby to make sure that no other marketplace lending platform can open to retail lenders by making SEC approval very difficult. LC CEO will lobby to have tougher regulations so that no new marketplace lending platforms can grow to compete with LC. LC CEO will lobby to get a few other new regulations that will help LC become monopoly.

it sounds about right

Hit the nail on the head.

Investors - LC / Re: When are deadbeats reported to credit agencies
« on: May 17, 2015, 09:06:50 AM »
What if social lending is just a scam by the large banks to create a last chance re-fi for deadbeats that is outside the banks' balance sheets? I can imagine Citibank sending Lending Club offers to customers they identify as in trouble.  Just flexing my conspiracy muscle to stay in shape.  :)

Hehe, I hadn't thought of that until now.           :D

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