Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - jpildis

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 11
1
Investors - LC / Re: New Platform
« on: June 30, 2018, 11:03:43 AM »
Does anyone have the link to download the folio trades?

2
BlueVestment / Re: Bluevestment Down Again
« on: February 25, 2018, 08:11:10 AM »
Hi, everyone. The LC API had a recent change that has broken the Bluevestment investing engine. Once we have a resolution, we'll let everyone know. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Jon

3
Foliofn - LC / Re: I just made a $4500 donation to the Folio community
« on: October 18, 2017, 09:44:03 AM »
Bump

sorry for your loss.  How do you filter notes in your portfolio by credit rating?  I place great stock in fico scores, and I'm pretty tired of having to open each and every single note to see anything but the meaningless arrow.

I created portfolios in LC for my notes based on their most recent FICO score.  You can see  the FICO in the notes download and it's generally updated every month.  It does take a 2-30 min each month to move notes around if they have had a big FICO change but it's worth it for me.  Once the portfolios are updated, executing a FICO-based selling strategy becomes pretty straight-forward.

4
Investors - LC / Re: Best way to measure true return?
« on: August 10, 2017, 10:49:20 AM »
My preference is XIRR (a spreadsheet function) using every cashflow in to and out from the account along with the current adjusted account value. 

If you want an intermediate value, treat it as though the account was created on the first of the month at the adjusted month beginning value, and add any relevant cash flows, and use the adjusted month end or month-to-date value.

Agreed. I use my unadjusted balance minus the full value of 31+ day late and defaults.

5
Investors - LC / Re: Strategy of buying notes 1/2 way during their term
« on: August 02, 2017, 08:53:19 AM »
When I was selling notes (36 month term only) I was always able to sell "Neverlate" notes with 22-18 months to go at a premium (typically 5%). It's really a sweet spot. Finding them at discounts is surprising for the reason you said. Bet they don't hang around long on Folio before they are gone. You must be using some type of automation to pick them up before others do. Of course if they are not "Neverlate" that's a different story.

Odd because I find it a completely different thing. I have no trouble finding notes at 17 payments left with a 5% discount. I am hand picking them but using the sort features to find notes and then sort by discount and then look at the notes. On the other hand I am having a hard time selling notes that I previously purchased. None have been late and are in the 22 to 18 payments left area. I am marking them up only slightly 3% or so.

I guess that works if you don't care about FICO scores or direction

6
Post all of your notes at once with a 5% premium. Return in 24 hours and select 'Reprice' from the My Accounts tab on Folio. Drop the mark-up by 2.5%. Repeat every 24 hours. Untill there's no open orders (about 7 days). Repeat entire process but start your mark-up lower.

This way you won't leave much money on the table and it only takes a few clicks per day.

7
Foliofn - LC / Re: Secondary Market Inventory LOW
« on: July 25, 2017, 08:11:54 PM »
I don't doubt the statistics but I buy about $2500 from folio each day and I have seen a significant lack of well priced loans. On a positive note, the lack of available loans has dramatically increased my sales. In fact, yesterday was record day of $15k of sales with healthy mark-ups.

According to LR forum post, LR Folio quit date might have been 7/11, almost two weeks. The quick analysis I did was based on 7/08 and 7/22 Folio listings at noon (I corrected the dates in earlier post that previously mentioned 8/08 and 8/22).

Average YTM moved up from 15.88% on 7/08 to 18.21% on 7/22. I don't monitor Folio trend closely except time to time looking at PeerCube Folio Pricing Overview page at https://www.peercube.com/folionotes/index that lists a few stats for guidance to our users who manually price notes. I am getting back into analyzing Lending Club data again so you might see new posts sharing my findings.

Thanks Anil!
Has it been two weeks since LR quit their FOLIO?
Going to assume that 4.9% is well within statistical norms?
3.5% drop in markup is huge and shows that the amount of loans that were bloating the FOLIO market where not accurately priced to sell for most people looking to buy. I am also going to assume that the YTM average also moved up significantly overall. Not sure if you would have that number. I would assume that most of those notes trimmed out of the market had a YTM from 0-5.
Not sure how close you follow FOLIO and trends but has such a drop happened before? If so, what was the cause then if there was one?

8
Foliofn - LC / Secondary Market Inventory LOW
« on: July 22, 2017, 11:42:53 AM »
The inventory of available loans is about 1/2 of normal.  Could this be due to LendingRobot being down? It's a bit scary if their customers are 1/2 of the market.

9
Combined Adjusted Net Annualized Return:  9.96%
Weighted Average Interest Rate: 20.87%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:  20.3 mos
Number of Notes: 3041 (excluding fully paid and charge-offs)

Grade
A (0.0%) B (0.0%) C (0.1%)
D (20.8%) E (47.4%) F (26.6%) G (5.1%)

Term
36 (2.8%) 60 (97.2%)

XIRR = 9.65%

Current (95.89%), IGP (0.92%), 16-30 (0.55%), 31+ (2.59%), default (0.06%)

FICO Trend = Up (79.41%), Flat (4.82%), Down (15.77%)

Can't really do comparisons as over 70% of my portfolio was purchased via Folio.

10
Foliofn - LC / New LC HArdship Plans and Folio
« on: April 14, 2017, 06:27:50 PM »
Does anyone know if/how loans that are in LC's new Hardship program will be noted as such on folio?  I've sent a question to LC and I will share whatever I get back.

My obvious concern is that a note will be on a hardship plan and it will still show current on LC & Folio.  There are going to be new fields showing the hardship status but I'm sure the brainiacs at Folio won't add that to the screening options.

11
Foliofn - LC / Re: I just made a $4500 donation to the Folio community
« on: March 30, 2017, 01:23:52 PM »
If you dont get enough contributions I recommend you switch to Auchentoshen American Oak. It is an exquisite drink and cheap as Borscht.
Thanks for the recommendation, though I like the smokey Islay stuff

12
Foliofn - LC / Re: I just made a $4500 donation to the Folio community
« on: March 30, 2017, 01:20:51 PM »
Well, kids, I'm hoping some of you kind souls just scored 80-90% discounts on Never Late, Current loans with FICOs between 630 & 659.  I made a bone-headed error in a selling formula... these should have been listed at around a 10% discount. The transactions have not cleared yet so maybe a few will get canceled due to payments but the carnage is very real.

If you were lucky enough to be on the receiving end of this unintended bargain and would like to help fund my therapeutic Scotch habit, you can assuage your guilt by making a donation to my paypal account: jon@pildis.com

Thanks for reading and always double-check you selling formulas!

Jon
sorry to hear that.
why would you be selling them at 10% discount in the first place?

Well... sub-660 FICOs have a much higher propensity to default and the market dictates a 9-11% discount to get the yield up to 35-40%.

13
Foliofn - LC / I just made a $4500 donation to the Folio community
« on: March 29, 2017, 07:11:26 PM »
Well, kids, I'm hoping some of you kind souls just scored 80-90% discounts on Never Late, Current loans with FICOs between 630 & 659.  I made a bone-headed error in a selling formula... these should have been listed at around a 10% discount. The transactions have not cleared yet so maybe a few will get canceled due to payments but the carnage is very real.

If you were lucky enough to be on the receiving end of this unintended bargain and would like to help fund my therapeutic Scotch habit, you can assuage your guilt by making a donation to my paypal account: jon@pildis.com

Thanks for reading and always double-check you selling formulas!

Jon

14
Foliofn - LC / Re: FICO's updated... kind of
« on: March 20, 2017, 08:40:37 AM »
You can also just avoid the 11th - 15th of each month. I stop selling my downs until FICOs are updated.

Interesting thought.  I had not tried to learn the pattern of WHEN these updates flow thru.  Are they consistent with those dates?

Pretty much... it used to be like clockwork on the 15th but I've seen it as early as the 11th.  I just go dark until the notes download shows me that the wave of FICO updates has happened.

15
Foliofn - LC / Re: FICO's updated... kind of
« on: March 17, 2017, 01:08:31 PM »
You can also just avoid the 11th - 15th of each month. I stop selling my downs until FICOs are updated.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 11