Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - toiletpaper55

Pages: [1] 2
1
Anyone else get this?

Quote
Your account application is currently under review. This may be due to factors such as your association with a stock exchange, a broker/dealer, or FINRA, or the fact that you or an immediate family member/household member is a director, corporate officer, or 10% shareholder in any publicly traded company.

Are any of those statements true in your case and did you actually fess up?  Or was this just a surprise from them at the end?  Since they have a metric ton of applications to go through in a very short amount of time, this could be inconvenient to say the least.  I don't think I would have been truthful.  Since there's a phone number in the email though why not give them a ring and see what the deal is.

Quote
If this is not resolved within approximately 5 business days you may not be able to proceed further.

I wonder how they expect you to "resolve" it, especially if they're not talking about you personally.  Divorce?  Disownment?  Murder?

I received the same message - were you able to get any resolution? Or have you spoken to anyone on the phone?

2
some sort of positive confirmation would have been nice

Indeed.  That click was less than fulfilling.  Changing the hash does result in an error rather than the usual 302 redirect so at least that indicates something real might be happening behind the scenes.

Quote
Clicking this button will take you to the Settings section of your account, which will confirm your authorization that we share your contact information with Fidelity.

Taking that sentence literally, the very act of visiting your settings page is what triggers it.  Depends on who is doing the confirming, me or them?  I don't think that's what they meant.  What an awkward sentence.  They must have pulled the janitor away from his programming duties to write this mailing.

I signed up for Fidelity already, after scanning the agreements to make sure there weren't any monthly maintenance fees for taxable accounts.  I wonder how long they'll ban me from future IPO participation if I dump the shares within a month.  Nothing lost really as I don't want to be a customer of theirs anyway.

So it's probably prudent to open and fund an account if you don't already have one...i figure any announcement or movement on this will move quickly...

3
Just got the email and clicked the button to participate. it directed me to my login. i logged in and it went on my account settings page but there was never anything that indicated that I "confirm your authorization that we share your contact information with Fidelity."

... is there anything else i have to do...?

4
Have been following CAN SLIM on and off for a number of years (~5). First came across it in a stock market class back in college. IBD stocks get absolutely punished in downturns but I think it's a good method for identifying "hot" and up and coming stocks/ companies (and things to short when the market turns..). And although I no longer subscribe to investors.com, I definitely enjoyed their investor's corner, big picture and other market pieces. The class I took was taught by www.wishingwealthblog.com. He uses a lot of technical indicators but essentially is a self-proclaimed trend-follower...

5
Investors - LC / Re: LC whole loans available to anyone
« on: November 06, 2014, 08:57:10 AM »
Are these whole loans to retail investors BRV?

6
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club bankruptcy remote vehicle
« on: October 27, 2014, 02:17:07 PM »
perhaps i am understanding this incorrectly. how does creating a bankruptcy remote vehicle jeopardize their blue sky exemption? from reading above, i thought such an exemption is dependent on being public. unless the creation of a brv jeopardizes their ipo, the two are unrelated.

I'm thinking that it is because the BRV is a separate company.  The BRV is not a public company, and therefore doesn't have the exemption.
That might be Fred, but the BRV is not buying or selling securities. It is just an escrow agent.

I'm not a lawyer, but I don't think your interpretation is quite right.  The BRV has to actually  "own" the loans.  Its not just an escrow agent.  An escrow agent simply takes custody temporarily of things owned by others.

Beyond that, attempting to use logic to understand the legal situation would be speculative.  I don't have the energy to find the laws in question, read them, etc.

my bad; i also wasn't aware that the blue sky exemption applies to BORROWERS. this makes more sense.

and yes, the BRV should technically own the loans in a separate entity and the institutions either own an equity stake in the vehicle or have notes back by the assets within..

7
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club bankruptcy remote vehicle
« on: October 23, 2014, 12:43:31 PM »
guess there's no relief for the little guys..

The way I read Peter's statement above is that they are foregoing the BRV to assure a greater pool of retail investors and to capture more lending business from "traditional" lenders. 

If I am interpreting that a correctly, I'd probably make the same business decision. 

It's not about relief for the little guy, it's about capturing as much of the total available market as possible.  I'd rather LC be available in all 50 States than just 26.

Yes, it increases our risk, but it also increases our opportunity for reward.

Can someone confirm that I understood properly, or that I've lost the plot?

-Jon

perhaps i am understanding this incorrectly. how does creating a bankruptcy remote vehicle jeopardize their blue sky exemption? from reading above, i thought such an exemption is dependent on being public. unless the creation of a brv jeopardizes their ipo, the two are unrelated.

prosper has a 'prosper funding' vehicle and probably intends to go public shortly after lc...i would speculate that lc is so focused on pushing out volume to boost their origination metrics (obv heavily reliant on institutional $) that they don't care to put in the work (which is understandably a lot if individual prospectuses are required). nonetheless, it's pretty indicative of their current priorities...

increased access by retail investors, under its current legal structure, does nothing to mitigate risk to current or any prospective (retail) investors...that very fundamental risk remains...i mean, otherwise, why wouldn't institutions be game to buy notes technically back by the platform's credit...

so not entirely sure what you mean about the "opportunity for reward"... sure, there may be more borrowers but if anything, citing "marketing reasons" for lowering borrower acquisition cost from IPO publicity is bullshit. what happens when everyone has access and it blows up? the retail investors get screwed the most (and many more of 'em). haven't we learned anything about tail risk in finance, haha ;)

anyways, like you said, i'd probably also "make the same business decision" but we're in different positions..

full disclosure: invested in lc loans but letting my portfolio runoff

8
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club bankruptcy remote vehicle
« on: October 22, 2014, 02:27:05 PM »
So did this discussion lead to any concrete steps to get retail investors the same level of bankruptcy protection as institutional investors?

I am assuming some list members have contacted LC directly and have gotten a wishy washy "we'll look into it" type of response. Es verdad?

The time to push for retail investors to have BRV protection is now (pre-IPO when LC is very vulnerable to any negative press).

I just purchased the domain name for LendingClubBankrupt.com. I want to use this website to educate all new potential retail investors how they are not given the same type of bankruptcy protection as institutional investors. It cost me about $25 (one default) so there, I took one for the team.

I hope we can organize ourselves instead of just whining about being mistreated. But it's not FAIR!!!! (wringing of hands / gnashing of teeth)

Yeah we know it's not fair that's why we need to organize and push back. LC will brush off individual complaints but will stand up and take notice if we stand up and speak with one voice. Especially if that voice is raised loudly just as they are trying to convince the rest of the world what a great company they are.

Timing is everything.

Sean

guess there's no relief for the little guys..

9
Investors - LC / Re: LendingClub Files S-1 with SEC
« on: September 17, 2014, 05:36:09 PM »
...
Look at the Icesave rescue for UK & Dutch investors as an example of how a rescue occurred because it wasn't politically acceptable (among other things) for a hundred thousand mom & pop savers to get shafted despite the no guarantee nature of those speculative accounts.

To exert similar political pressure in this country you'd need perhaps half a million or so retail investors...........a number that we're not likely to get to anytime soon, thus making my initial argument of safety less secure. That is why I've been nagging about a BRV for retail investors. According to Peter that is not going to happen any time soon either.  See here:

http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-files-to-go-public/

Now I don't know if retail investors will or won't get pushed out like Core suggests, but if retail investors both as a percentage & as an actual number do not increase in tandem with institututionals then my concerns of safety would increase. Institutional  investors by definition accept high risk & do lose money routinely without much fanfare. Now, pls. understand that I still see the risk as small, but it's there & it's not getting smaller. Of course it would help if LC actually shows that they can make any money for longer than a few months at a time, but that's another conversation.

I hope no political pressure gets put on them, if they fail, they should fail. There are considerable protections put in place at Prosper (less so at LC) - all loans are held in a bankruptcy remote vehicle, should anything happen to the parent company. LC is less protected for retail investors (last I checked).

I couldn't find your arguments regarding more retail = more safety, but I hope it wasn't just in "political pressure" - the numbers are probably too low for any real political pressure fixes, and I get tired of bailing out people who make unsound decisions. I think that more institutional dollars = more safety. They put far more pressure on the platforms to get accounting right, far more pressure to ensure that they don't f up their credit models, and that the platforms are taking an iterative approach to changes. At this point the credit models for consumer lending are pretty baked, and they are tweaking and refining to better target and expand their originations. Institutional has more incentive and better ability to make sure i's are dotted and t's are crossed than retail will. As long as everyone is losing money together, that should be legit.

Prosper and LC are trying to rebrand as market place lending because the "peer-ness" is largely marketing at this point. >90% of the dollars at prosper are institutional. As long as retail can invest their dollars, I don't see this as a huge problem. Those people with heavy filters, might not, but that's their choice - I think being able to invest as an index across a couple of grades is sufficient to say that it's working for retail. I think it'll always be good PR, word of mouth, branding to keep a retail channel open.

Of course it would help if LC actually shows that they can make any money for longer than a few months at a time, but that's another conversation.

LC not making money is fine - lots of companies do it, see Amazon; need to pay attention to why. I think LC is in good shape in this regards. Prosper is also profitable, but it behooves them to reinvest it all and a little extra (to not make a profit) to continue to build their business (and you know, maybe fix it so their accounting works right)

Couldn't it all just be a ponzi scheme, going to public while valuations are "frothy", filing under the JOBs act with lax'd internal control requirements and screwing debt and equity investors? Worst case scenario, obviously, but stranger things have happened. The technical nature of notes being reliant on LC credit has always concerned me, especially as it increases the risk of fraud in order to keep the boat afloat should things suddenly (or even gradually) turn south. Let's hope not. And I seriously hope y'all don't place too much faith in "valuations" LOL

10
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: Lending Club's IPO
« on: February 07, 2014, 10:18:20 AM »
When Google invested in May 2013 the valuation of LC was 1.55B. I think the valuation at IPO will be a multiple of that since the loan volume has increased since then. My guess would be between 4 and 7B.

I didn't realize the valuation was that high on the GOOG investment. You're right. Assuming the valuation sticks (why wouldn't it as everything is going to plan). I'll revise to my guess to 2.5B.

I could see the market cap upon IPO being easily over 5bn...and I'm sure loan volume will be a valuation metric used...and pretty sure we wouldn't be able to get in on the primary offering, unless you're UHNW or have relationships..

11
Off Topic / What other forums do y'all participate?
« on: January 17, 2014, 10:21:48 AM »
Any interesting communities, hobbies or interests? Good bodies of knowledge? Just curious as to what people are into aside from P2P.

I've often found the best knowledge is hidden within the depths of the interwebs...and self-selecting groups (and individual people) have the best knowledge/experiences. I probably don't spend as much time as i used to in forums, especially with the internet commercializing more but just wondering!

I'll start:

-used to be pretty active in getting free ipods ;] : freeipodguide.com
-occasionally browse styleforum.net for details on brands, etc
-also was a big fan of macrumors.com for troubleshooting, finding accessories and of course rumors

12
Off Topic / Re: DC real estate - anyone with experience?
« on: January 17, 2014, 10:14:41 AM »
Fine advice, if unrealistic.

I'm not a professional real estate investor so common sense stuff just comes to bear. No idea of DC specifically BUT DC is the center of our public spending and the government (and those close to it) is getting richer and bigger which makes DC a very resilient market. I would expect it to continue unless there is a fundamental shift in the nature of our government (that is, a republican in office won't change anything).

Buy conservatively in a good are with the expectation of easy resale or rental. (avoid unique properties or places with a lot of character that would need a specific buyer to unload). A unit in a professionally managed building or a small apartment in a nice neighborhood would work. I can't stress enough that you should imagine this apartment would be a no brainer for another set of loving parents to take over once your family is done with it.

Make the buy v. rent calculation with specific attention to the amount of capital appreciation required to better yourself . Remember the timeframe you're considering (will she live in DC for 2 years or 22?) remember there is a large amount of friction on both ends of a real estate transaction, including taxes on the capital gains (yes I know there are ways to delay that). So take that into account. Take into account maintenance and common fees if any. Water bills, electrical, maintenance, insurance, TAXES. All the crap landlords (sometimes) do for you. Here is a basic BASIC calculator to use (you'll need to adjust based on expected costs). http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html

Once you've identified that buying is better hit the market very hard, get your paperwork together so you can make an offer on the spot without being second in line. See tons of places. I saw probably 40 houses before finding my current house I just kept waiting and waiting until a deal came along in the right neighborhood. I was on top of 5 different brokers multiple times per week and got my own access to their listings (waiting for something to pop up on trulia is too late).

thanks for this well thought out response. will begin to play with some numbers / excel. agreed on dc being held up by the gov't. as is the case for the entire region (maryland, va). having grown up there, it's crazy to see the growth/prosperity of biotech, defense and contracting sectors. without getting into politics, there's been (and i assume will continue to be) a lot of pressure to cut spending...austerity...in combination with an increasing wealth gap, student debt, underemployment, i fear a lost decade (or two...or generation...us millennials). the net result being increased pressure to redistribute wealth (not implying extreme turmoil..) and perhaps slower growth in the region..

nevertheless, thank you for your thoughts, especially about buying "conservatively" and in areas attractive to "loving parents". my initial thought were to find something that maybe older or have potential for development; gentrification seems to be everywhere. but a lot of these places seem to be priced for potential growth...especially as they were bought by investors after the downturn. there's still been a ton of construction flooding the market by large developers. apartments/condos starting in the 700k+ range (which i think is a bit ridiculous). but it's hard to separate the money pouring into development by huge developers, foreign investors and how that will hold overtime. on the flipside there are demographic trends and other preferences for a more urban lifestyle. i guess the short of it is that i'm not close enough to the region/industry/market and don't have a long enough perspective (being 24...) to put things into a broader context.

lastly, thanks for the advice on execution. makes a lot of sense to have good intelligence and good comps. will continue to examine!

13
Off Topic / Re: The Stock Market Thread
« on: January 14, 2014, 05:56:01 PM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

anddddd totally missed TSLA =/

14
Off Topic / Re: The Stock Market Thread
« on: January 13, 2014, 10:00:27 AM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.

thanks for your thoughts...agreed that "valuations" for internet/tech maybe a bit high or "fluffy" right now but what other sectors are outperforming? and is this not a similar case with biotech and pharma? tbh, i generally just follow trends as i have little/no valuation or industry experience to study fundamentals (value investing-esque). do you think the internet space has matured a bit since the AOL days...in terms of infrastructure and advertising? goog makes like 97%+ of revenue from search...

this being said, i'm (relatively) young and have very little long term perspective so your thoughts and (longer) term time frames are much appreciated!!
Just buy index funds.

agreed; my (small) 401k that i started is in 25% "new horizons" fund, 25% large cap, 25% 2045 retirement and 25% "lifestrategy" growth...not sure if i can use index etfs as part of plan...

15
Off Topic / Re: The Stock Market Thread
« on: January 09, 2014, 08:09:54 AM »
Long ALXN, LNKD, FB, YHOO, DDD, RLGS

Short GLD, TWTR

thoughts?

And considering long TSLA and short SALE

I wouldn't go anywhere near social media stocks right now. They are too fundamentally similar to the dotcom bubble. At current multiples, you are paying for zero current earnings and very high expected growth over the next 10 years. That's a lot of time for things to go wrong, or for a stock to lose favor with the market/customers. Just look at Myspace - the moment "Tom" sold the company, they decided to monetize it and every user fled. Or look at AOL - a high-growth company with "stellar prospects" that was worth some $150+ billion in 2000, only to be worth $3.5 billion now. And just like Facebook, everyone used their service. The only difference is that people actually paid to use AOL, unlike modern social media.

thanks for your thoughts...agreed that "valuations" for internet/tech maybe a bit high or "fluffy" right now but what other sectors are outperforming? and is this not a similar case with biotech and pharma? tbh, i generally just follow trends as i have little/no valuation or industry experience to study fundamentals (value investing-esque). do you think the internet space has matured a bit since the AOL days...in terms of infrastructure and advertising? goog makes like 97%+ of revenue from search...

this being said, i'm (relatively) young and have very little long term perspective so your thoughts and (longer) term time frames are much appreciated!!

Pages: [1] 2