Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Deming

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Investors - LC / Re: Average Age Of Portfolio
« on: November 04, 2014, 01:11:13 PM »
Average age is now 20.1 months. Where will it eventually settle?

Great question and I one I have been trying to determine this as well.  I got a response from LC that said 9 months would be the eventual "average age of notes" when constantly reinvesting cash flow (no additions or withdrawals).  I know that is wrong since your average age is now 20.1 months.

Another member theorized the average age would eventually become 1/2 the age of your average note term.
   

However, in your case that should have been 18 months, yet you are now over 20 months.

You can manually track the ratio of Change in LC Avg Age/Calendar Months. For a young portfolio, this ratio will initially be very close to 1:1 (ex. for every calendar month that passes, the reported LC Avg Age will increase by 1.0).  As your portfolio ages, this ratio will gradually decrease and approach zero and you will have reached the steady state Average Age of Portfolio.

Since the time I stopped making deposits to my account, I take screen shots of my LC account every time the report LC "Average Age of Portfolio" changes. Using these shots, I have created the following table:


The last column "LC Avg Age Chg/Elapsed Months" shows the ratio getting smaller over time as expected. Thus, for each calendar month which passes, my avg age will only increase by 0.677 months. This ratio is continuing to decrease.  Using my data, I project my steady state average age will be 11.3.

My projection seems a bit optimistic. I looked at Bryce Mason's reported data and his ratio is down to 0.118 so he is nearing steady state of average age of portfolio. His average age of portfolio is now 11.8 months.  Using the 0.118, his average age of portfolio will only increase by 0.118 for each calendar month that passes. His ratio appears to be decreasing at a decreasing rate as it approaches steady state.

Please take a screen shot or write down your current LC "Average Age of Portfolio" under the "Understading your Returns" and record the date. Then next month repeat and let me know your ratio.  I would hope your ratio is much smaller than 0.118 and I hope you are very, very close to steady state.

Do you have any sales of notes?  Have you made any withdrawals? Do you auto reinvest? These are factors which may skew your avg age.


2
P2P-Picks / Re: Personal Portfolio Returns
« on: November 04, 2014, 11:00:05 AM »
Bryce, I look forward to your Q3 2014 posting. It is very interesting to follow. Thank you for sharing.

3
Interest Radar / Re: CRITICAL: Strategy Shop IRR Reporting Error?
« on: August 18, 2014, 12:05:07 PM »
I would expect for a young portfolio, your LC NAR or ANAR should be reporting higher than your IR IRR.  Are you certain your IR IRR is setup correctly with correct manual entries by you?

Also, click on the "Understanding your returns" link on your LendingClub account summary page located just under your percentage reported. The link takes you to a page with some details, something like this:

Adjusted Net Annualized Return ?:   16.84 %
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   20.82%
Average Age of Portfolio:   6.0 mos
Number of Notes:   757

What is yours showing?

What is your IR IRR ?




4
Investors - P / Re: Expected Future Annualized Return
« on: July 28, 2014, 02:10:02 PM »
True.  I was hoping to find how Prosper views the future of our returns. It would be a nice sanity check to compare with LC.  Here is a clip from Prosper where they assume a Note's Weighted Average Life of 15.9 months. I would assume that means, with reinvesting proceeds, my weighted avg life won't exceed 15.9 months.  I wonder if that translates over to LC as well?  I like the LC graph at 15.9 months much better than past that.

Quote
* To calculate Annualized Returns, a total gain or loss is calculated by summing all payments received net of principal repayment, credit losses, and servicing costs. The gain or loss is then divided by the average daily amount of principal outstanding to get a simple rate of return. This rate is annualized by dividing by the dollar weighted average Note age of your portfolio in days and multiplying by 365. Lender Promotion Returns include any lender promotional payments you may have received from Prosper funding LLC or Prosper Marketplace, Inc. since July 15, 2009 and are divided by your Total Dollars Invested for the Purchase Period to get a simple rate of return. This rate is annualized using our estimate of a Note's weighted average life, currently 15.9 months.


5
Investors - P / Expected Future Annualized Return
« on: July 28, 2014, 01:57:03 PM »
I am trying to estimate my expected annualized return over the life of my Prosper account. All my cash proceeds are automatically reinvested into new loans and I plan to continue this over the next 5 years. Prosper currently shows my Seasoned Annualized Return at 12.59%,  Average Note Age of 318 days (10.45 months), allocation is roughly equal A, B, C, D.

LendingClub provides a chart showing how ALL portfolio's overall returns decline as Average Age of Portfolio increases. When "Average Age of Portfolio" is 24 months, nearly all accounts end up with annualized returns of 6-8%.

Prosper doesn't provide any stats on historical long term expected returns.

Is my current 12.5% return doomed to 6-8% annualized over a 5 year period?

6
Interest Radar / Re: IR Platform not updating reports
« on: July 24, 2014, 06:13:35 PM »
Yes, but I'm hoping the IR Strategies I rely on for auto buying are indeed accurate. It makes me uneasy to see reports that are incorrect because it could be an indication something could be wrong in the strategy stats and we wouldn't know it.

7
Interest Radar / IR Platform not updating reports
« on: July 24, 2014, 05:40:13 PM »
I noticed that my IR report for a loan has not updated since May 2014, while the same loan in LC is showing payment updates thru July 2014.  I uploaded my most recent csv file to IR and logged off and back on. IR payment report still not updated.

Any ideas on how to fix this?

The top report is from IR and the bottom from LC for SAME Loan:


8
Foliofn - LC / Re: Historical Sales Info
« on: July 24, 2014, 01:24:23 PM »
From the IR website:

Quote
The first line in each cell shows how many notes are for sale right now, and at what average discount or markup. The second line shows how many notes were sold the previous day, and at what actual discount or markup.

So they are showing both open offers and notes sold.

Where do they get that information on the notes "sold the previous day"?

9
Foliofn - LC / Historical Sales Info
« on: July 24, 2014, 12:03:01 PM »
Where can I find historical FolioFN sales information?

FolioFN does not have an API and does not report any historical sales.

However, I noticed that InterestRadar reports the number of notes sold on previous day broken down by several stats.  https://www.interestradar.com/tradestats

Where are they getting this information?


10
Investors - LC / Re: Desktop-based FolioFn client?
« on: July 24, 2014, 11:21:23 AM »
I'm a software developer who's interested in P2P lending. I've been poking around the LC site and it appears that they've (perhaps accidentally) exposed a RESTful API for FolioFn. I don't think that it would be very difficult to wrap it up in a GUI and distribute it. My goal would be to make something lightweight and easy to use -- a replacement for the existing, painful UI that Folio provides.

Would the LC community be interested in a desktop-based client for FolioFn, likely for a one-time fee? If it's something that people would use, I'm open to feature requests.

Yes, absolutely!  Is it completed?

11
Tony,

What is your actual IRR?  What method do you use for your IRR calculation? (ex. Excel XIRR, InterestRadar).  Does it include cash drag?

12
Yes, it was also checked.  Nathan got the problem solved from his side.

Thank you Nathan!

13
My account has hundreds of notes over the last 6 months, but still not working with BlueVestment.  The "Auto Investing" in first image still says "No".

I emailed Nathan and am hoping he can fix it on his side...

Here are my screen shots:






14
I noticed your account number in your screen shot which you should edit and crop out.  :)

15
I sell about $15k per month...

What are the min/max/average size of your loans you sell?  As a buyer, how would you react if you saw 10 of the same notes for sale at the same time (ie. 10 x $50 notes) vs. a single $500 note? Would your normal search pick up both?

Pages: [1] 2 3