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Messages - Fred93

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1
Investors - LC / Re: My hardship loan experience
« on: August 02, 2020, 07:21:19 PM »
Under 10% being hardship and less than 10% of those being delinquent seems really good, seeing as how 20% of the country has lost their jobs.

Be careful with the interpretation of those percentages.  Loans default over time. 

That means you should look at delinquency in units of "% per year", not just "%".   If you don't get the time element in there you will confuse yourself.  Covid hardship status hasn't been around for very long, which means there hasn't been much time for many of them go late yet.

I'm happy to see the "hardrship only" check box.  LC owes us visibility.

2
General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC Payment File Download Issues
« on: July 21, 2020, 03:02:13 PM »
Message from LC today says "Fix for this issue is in flight."

3
General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC Payment File Download Issues
« on: July 19, 2020, 06:16:58 PM »
Actually, if you check the size on disk, it will say 895 even though download says 874.

Sure.  874 x 1024/1000 = 895

Every few years I hit one of these file-download-stops-at-a-repeatable-point problems.  This is a curious place to stop, and impolite of it not to produce an error.

The data stream is coming from...  ec2-52-42-46-127.us-west-2.compute.amazonaws.com [52.42.46.127]

4
General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC Payment File Download Issues
« on: July 18, 2020, 05:47:15 PM »
I just now tried.  I get 874 MB, and the resulting .zip file is declared invalid by both Windows Explorer or WinZip.

5
WSJ is paywalled.  Article says banks don't know who is going to pay them back, so they are pulling back across the board.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/flying-blind-into-a-credit-storm-widespread-deferrals-mean-banks-cant-tell-whos-creditworthy-11593423001?mod=hp_lead_pos5
Quote
...Millions of Americans are out of work and behind on their debts. But, in many cases, the missed payments aren’t reflected in their credit scores, nor are they uniformly recorded on borrowers’ credit reports.

The confusion stems from a provision in the government’s coronavirus stimulus package. The law says lenders that allow borrowers to defer their debt payments can’t report these payments as late to credit-reporting companies. From March 1 through the end of May, Americans deferred debt payments on more than 100 million accounts, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion, a sign of widespread financial distress.

The credit blind spot has further clouded the outlook for lenders.  ...

Interesting that the legislators wrote into the law a provision to keep banks from reporting deferrals, in the hope that deferral would not reduce availability of credit to these individuals, and this has had the opposite effect of the one desired.  They've reduced the availability of credit to everyone. 

LC sees this pullback as their customers (banks, who buy loans from LC) disappearing.


6
Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: June 18, 2020, 12:57:52 PM »
I think you can agree that the buyer needs  to be aware of the hardship status.  That requires software work.

7
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: REITs vs Real Estate Crowdfunding
« on: June 15, 2020, 03:11:21 PM »
There are so many of these spam messages lately linking to some crowdfunding real estate site, almost always from some new user with only a few posted messages (and meaningless ones!) that it seems quite likely that these crowdfunding sites must be in big trouble.

8
Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: June 15, 2020, 03:10:03 PM »
Good!  For awhile they were allowing people to buy and sell hardship loans, but they never implemented reasonable user interface or API to allow buyers to see that they were buying hardship loans.  They failed big time in their fiduciary duty to buyers!

So now that's fixed.  Good.

9
Investors - LC / Re: hardship fields in spreadsheet wrong
« on: June 14, 2020, 05:43:27 PM »
Same fields are present in the files you can download from LC containing all loans. 

Only downside is that those files update only once a month, and new loans don't appear until we're 2 weeks into the next quarter.  But for existing loans as of June 1st, the info is all there in the LC files.

I haven't tried to do any of the sort of analysis you suggest.  Such results would be interesting.  One caveat tho, I don't quite know what it means when someone is on a hardship plan.  It could mean he's in hardship.  It could also mean he's just tricky enough and unethical enough to claim hardship to delay his payment, because the covid19 situation gives him cover.  I'm sure there is a mix, and much in between, but we have no way to evaluate what it might be. 

Another way of saying this is even if we suppose everyone is perfectly ethical, different people have a different threshold for asking for things like a hardship plan.  The threshold could be quite different in different parts of the country.

My cousin is a physician who specializes in rehab after injury.  She swears that postal workers have a lower threshold of pain than the general population.  I doubt any scientific study has been done. 

Would you interpret the distribution by state as a measure of hardship, willingness to ask for help, or ethics, or what?

10
Investors - LC / Re: hardship fields in spreadsheet wrong
« on: June 13, 2020, 08:17:05 PM »
Oh yea.  Got fixed within a week or so of my complaint.  All good now.

11
Foliofn - LC / Re: Goldman to buy Folio
« on: May 15, 2020, 12:52:40 AM »
Wow.  Makes folio instantly "legit" in the eyes of many folks.  ...which sounds good for LC investors.

On the other hand, Marcus is a direct challenge to LC's business, which makes one wonder whether LC can trust GS as a partner.

But LC cares so little for the retail investor these days that they probably no longer care whether folio is a good partner or a bad partner.


12
Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: May 13, 2020, 01:45:09 AM »
So what's the lifecycle of these hardship loans?

Good question. 

I also want to know what the chances are that such a loan will pay vs charging off.  We have no data on which to estimate.  LC says everything is fine, but it doesn't look fine to me. 

LC's various computations (ANAR for example) presume that these loans will behave just like loans that are paying, but I don't believe that. 

The delinquency spreadsheet that LC publishes shows that delinquency GOT BETTER after covid19, but this is fake news because they don't show that they are including a bunch of nonpaying loans as current in that calculation. 

Quote
They are listed as current now, but not making payments. Presumably at some point they're supposed to start paying--can they just keep on deferring? For how long?

Surely its a one-time thing,eh?  Otherwise that would be so stupid I just can't imagine.

Quote
And once they start finally being "late", do they go through the usual lifecycle for a late loan, starting with 15-30 days, and then 120 days? Or does the lateness "backdate" to the original deferred payment once they are late?

I've not seen any explanation on this.  The hardship "feature" has been around for a long time, so we could look back at some pre-covid19 hardship loans and track their lifecycle.  Unfortunately, LC makes them very difficult to find.  I have not put forth the effort.  Perhaps after they fix the spreadsheet bug it will be easier.

I suggest you pose your question to LC directly.  I believe the lifecycle of a hardship loan would be a worthy subject for a nice explanation for the FAQ at the very least.

13
Investors - LC / Re: hardship fields in spreadsheet wrong
« on: May 12, 2020, 04:51:21 PM »
Got an answer from LC today...
Quote
Please know that we are aware of this issue with the hardship plan columns and we are working to resolve it. We hope to have a resolution as soon as possible and we appreciate your patience during this time.

14
Investors - LC / Re: hardship fields in spreadsheet wrong
« on: May 08, 2020, 11:13:28 PM »
I had the same experience.  I realized only recently that my software had been buying loans indicated by LC as "never late" loans when in fact these loans had not made payments for a few months, which is completely bogus. 

The shame is on LC for this.  This is just plain misleading.



15
Investors - LC / Re: hardship fields in spreadsheet wrong
« on: May 08, 2020, 10:31:49 PM »
My guess is that they're attempting to hide this from retail.

Sloppiness, extreme disinterest, indifference, lack of caring, lethargy, lassitude, incompetence, all much more likely that evil intent. 

I'm guessing that the new covid19 related deferrals are really a different (new) program than the old hardship program and the software changes to implement it were a quick hack job with little review, and nobody at LC pays attention to the retail program any more, so when they didn't bother to write the code to update the fields in the spreadsheet, nobody noticed, or maybe one guy did notice at about the time he was handed his pink slip last week.

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