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Messages - megamx26

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Investors - LC / Increased number of "cease and desist" requests
« on: April 30, 2016, 05:13:11 PM »
Anybody else noticing an increasing number of late payments are requesting cease and desist all communication?

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@lascott  whoops, here it is

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Update on mine at 4.1 months

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Finally hit the 3 month mark weighted which tool a while to load in my $100k test.  Here are the results so far







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Investors - LC / Find all notes that were late in the past
« on: December 04, 2015, 06:00:52 PM »
Is there a way to get a list of all my notes that were late at some point in the past even if they're current now?

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Auto selling tool
« on: September 02, 2015, 11:05:34 PM »
Yea, i'm only interested in enough to keep it going since right now it just runs on my computer.

Any other feature requests people would like to see?

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Foliofn - LC / Auto selling tool
« on: August 31, 2015, 12:58:50 PM »
Hi guys, I made a script on my end that I'm using now to sell on Folio and I'm considering productizing it.  Few features including:
- all the same features as lending robot
- sell a note if it was in grace period in the past (or worse status) and then bounced back into current
- sell a note if it drops by more than a certain fico amount
- change discount based on the communication between reps and client

Future feature:  based on your notes characteristics, a recommended selling range based on past folio note sales that we monitor

My question to you guys, are there any other features you would like to see?  Is this a product you'd pay for and if so how much?

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Investors - LC / Clarification on "Loan Status migration Over 9 Months"
« on: August 31, 2015, 12:43:16 AM »
I was looking at the stats again on lending club and want to confirm the following chart that I understand it properly.

What it says is if an account enters grace period, it has a 27% change that it will result in a charge off within 9 months (whether or not that means it goes into current and then later ends up defaulting).

The reason I'm asking is I had a few notes go into grace and I'm trying to figure out if I should sell them and if that makes sense to purge any and all grace notes

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Sell Strategy
« on: August 27, 2015, 05:58:49 PM »
Check out the Peercube blog https://www.peercube.com/blog

Anil has done some research and has shown that 50 point or more FICO drop notes have a 50% chance of defaulting.  I don't like those odds, therefore, I sell notes that drop that far.  The reporting doesn't clarify why they drop but it would be for any of the normal reasons:  missed payments, too much credit used, poor debt to income ratio, etc..  You can have an 800 credit score and it drops to 750...you are gone from my portfolio.  Those notes sell well.  I assume because it is still a 750 FICO as opposed to something like a 600 dropping to a 550.
Hmm I just looked through my portfolio and found a note for example that had the following fico scores.

750(original)   then 700 then 680 then 750

Based on your rule I would have sold it but it jumped back up to 750 and might have missed out

Sure, you would have or you would have sold it for +1 or 2% or broke even on it.  The chance is 50% that it fails or that it plays out fine.  It is a coin flip.  Half of the notes I sell on down FICO will be fine.  As I do this I slowly weed out the 'bad' notes.  The ones that drop that much are usually in the first few months.  I rarely have a note that is older than 10-12 months do anything drastic up or down. 

I am not trying to sell you on the strategy I choose to follow; I could care less.  I look at it as a pretty reliable way to flush notes out of my portfolio that have a 50% chance to fail.  It has worked for me.  It isn't perfect but if you find a way to perfectly predict how a note is going to perform I would love to hear about it.
Wouldn't I have lost a few % by selling it when it hit 680?  I don't see a lot of notes sell for a premium when they have a big fico drop

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Sell Strategy
« on: August 27, 2015, 01:36:19 PM »
Check out the Peercube blog https://www.peercube.com/blog

Anil has done some research and has shown that 50 point or more FICO drop notes have a 50% chance of defaulting.  I don't like those odds, therefore, I sell notes that drop that far.  The reporting doesn't clarify why they drop but it would be for any of the normal reasons:  missed payments, too much credit used, poor debt to income ratio, etc..  You can have an 800 credit score and it drops to 750...you are gone from my portfolio.  Those notes sell well.  I assume because it is still a 750 FICO as opposed to something like a 600 dropping to a 550.
Hmm I just looked through my portfolio and found a note for example that had the following fico scores.

750(original)   then 700 then 680 then 750

Based on your rule I would have sold it but it jumped back up to 750 and might have missed out

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Yeah, yea. Easy to do in one of the most benign credit environments we've seen in a while. Lots of people did the same thing for years in cre and subprime loans. Good luck
Any chance you can post your Understanding Your Returns page?

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Sell Strategy
« on: August 21, 2015, 05:33:33 PM »
My tracking at this point is just what I usually remember or scribble down on some paper.  I only have 500+ notes so I don't have a huge amount of money in this.  My discount percentages are what I have learned from trial and error on Folio.  Down trending current notes almost never sell for more than +2% and that is rare.  Grace period notes of any type never go for more than -10%, in my experience.  The amount that sell at -10% is not worth my trying it at that price point to waste the day of grace period it would take to see if it sells so I start at -15%.  Bad notes may fall all the way to -30% or more in grace period before they sell but that is a darn sight more than you will get on a bad note that is 16-30 days late.  The biggest thing that hurts your returns in this are notes that default.  So, every penny you get before that point makes a big difference in your returns. 

What I have personally noticed is that once a late payer...there is a good chance they will be again and/or an eventual default happens.  Others may disagree and they may have the data to back them up.  I am sure someone out there is successful with a 'grace period buying strategy'.  I don't know what it is and I don't care to figure it out at this point.  What I can tell you is that dumping any/all grace period notes has helped my returns.  So has selling 50 point or more FICO drop notes.  Every month Lending Club posts FICO scores I go through my notes with a fine tooth comb.  Incidentally, that's why Prosper's lack of FICO updates every month drives me bananas.

Maybe I have divulged too much!
Thanks for the info, I appreciate you sharing.  Why do you sell the FICO drop notes?  (is this usually the creditor going out and looking for more credit?)

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Sell Strategy
« on: August 21, 2015, 04:25:26 PM »
When mine go grace I threw them up for sale at -15%.  Each day I mark them down 5% until they sell or they go even later (in which case I take the markdown to -40%) or they pay and go back to normal.  Even if they go back to normal, I mark them for sale at a 'normal' rate and then discount them until they sell.
Are you happy with this strategy?  Have you tracked to see if it performs well for you

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Foliofn - LC / Sell Strategy
« on: August 21, 2015, 03:41:25 PM »
According to LC it seems that notes that enter grace period have a 27% of charge off (i'm assuming that takes into consideration the lifespan of a loan.  ex.  it may be in grace now, go back to normal but later on end up going back to grace, late then charge off).

Given the number is 27%, is it worth it to just sell all notes that hit grace for up to 25% discount?

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@lascott  :  curious, why are you going more conservative?

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