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Messages - apc3161

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1
I was thinking similar about short covering. I managed to buy in at $3.15 and $3.20, so I'm happy. At the current level I'm up about $2k on my position and I am looking forward to at least another $1-2 rise. If the share price gets anywhere close to $6 I'll be ecstatic.

And it's really funny to say I'd be happy about $6 share price when the IPO was for $15 or more. 

Back to trying to get the last of my notes to sell...

Can you explain in very simple terms why you think the stock is a good investment if the underlying product they sell is bad (as evidenced by the fact that you are selling all of your notes...)?

2
Foliofn - LC / Re: Folio buying automation execution speed
« on: February 16, 2018, 04:33:03 PM »
LC has added new endpoints to their folio API.  You can now pull all notes updated in the past X minutes (you supply the X).  That should drastically reduce your download time if you pull only what has been updated in, say, the past 1 minute.  They're still working on the documentation so it's not on the site yet.  The API is working so you can ask them for the docs.

So is the previous strategy of downloading the CVS file and filtering it no longer how it's done?

3
Foliofn - LC / Re: Folio buying automation execution speed
« on: February 08, 2018, 06:27:46 AM »
I followed the same path as hdsouza and agree with his comments. Login, filter, diff, and analyze. After a lot of work it's down to 0.5 seconds. Twice a second, I pull the new filtered notes, analyze, and buy any good ones. And I'm not getting the best notes by any stretch of the imagination.

I think you could answer this question by trying to buy notes from yourself. Select one of your own notes to sell. You already know the noteId, orderId, and loanId, and AskPrice. Put it up for sale at a high price, and immediately try to buy it- you should succeed. Now put it up for sale at increasingly lower prices. At some point, you might find that someone buys it before you, even though you knew the details in advance.

I'm planning on trying this test soon. Would be interested if anyone else wants to try it too.

Can you clarify on "Login, filter, diff, and analyze.". As far as I know, there is just a CVS file you have to download then analyze, then purchase notes via their API. Where is this "login" part?

4
Investors - LC / Re: What is Your Minimum Acceptable Return
« on: January 14, 2018, 12:29:16 PM »
Around ~8% on average (i.e. 10%+ in good years)

Thought process:

1) Unfavorable tax situation (interest is taxed as regular income, losses are capital losses)
2) High yield bond index funds yield ~6%. I consider p2p riskier and as such need higher returns.
3) It's more work than an index fund. Not as easy to just "set and forget".

Of note, LC advertises 3-5%, as such they must think/hope that is okay for investors. I believe they are wrong and this will be proved, and investors will really start to pull money from their platform if they don't make it more investor friendly (at the expense of borrowers and shareholders)

5
I too had a similar problem with canceled payments, severe problem. I also talked to LC and we decided it was probably secondary to payments being too close to the sale date, such that payments automatically cancelled the sale. What I did to avoid this is stop purchasing notes (on-time notes) with payment date > 25 days (i.e. they have an upcoming payment). I did this recently. I'll see if this helps improve the situation.

6
Foliofn - LC / Re: Buy notes on the secondary market with API
« on: January 09, 2018, 05:53:10 AM »
Does anyone have an automated  way to get the list of notes available on the secondary market. I am not referring to the DOWNLOAD FULL INVENTORY but a list based on selection criteria - DOWNLOAD SEARCH RESULTS.?
I dont believe LC had Oath or some kind of authentication other than using the brower and loggin in manually, correct?

Write a program to download the notes (the .csv file) from the provided URL. Then you write a program to filter the loans in the .csv file. As far as I know, you have to download the entire non-filtered csv file with every single loan, you can't download a list of loans based off of any criteria.

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Buy notes on the secondary market with API
« on: December 10, 2017, 11:46:35 AM »
You can try emailing LC directly, they've been pretty supportive in my experience.

8
Investors - LC / Re: Dear LC
« on: December 02, 2017, 12:24:46 PM »
No doubt 2015 and 2016 are bad vintages.

I guess what I do not understand is how low of a return is LC willing to advertise before something changes.  I am referring to the banner they post all over the place.  Attached.

It used to say 8-10, then 7-9, then 6-8, then 5-7 and now 4-6.  How low will they go, before they realize people are not willing to invest in this asset class for that return.

I never expected huge returns from LC but I did not anticipate negative returns in the long run. 

I stopped re-investing about a year ago in my main account and at this point Im in the red every month, withdrawing funds as they become available. Current ANAR: 3.58%.  I invested using mostly BlueVestments Bluepicks aggressive algorithm in my main account (BlueVestments still claims a 11.7% return!!! - I wonder how they can justify that on their website still).

I am still re-investing in my IRA account where I have only a small amount invested, using Bluepicks moderate algorithm (they still claim 7%) and Im still in the red each month. Current ANAR: 0.57% :(.  Well see.

Bluevestment has had the worst modelling of all the 3rd party applications in my opinion.

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Discount on notes Liquidation
« on: November 17, 2017, 07:21:51 PM »
Wrote it all myself.

Would you be willing to share your code, or link to tutorials where one learns to do this?

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Investors - LC / Re: Dear LC
« on: November 17, 2017, 10:44:11 AM »
I guess what I do not understand is how low of a return is LC willing to advertise before something changes.  I am referring to the banner they post all over the place.  Attached.

It used to say 8-10, then 7-9, then 6-8, then 5-7 and now 4-6.  How low will they go, before they realize people are not willing to invest in this asset class for that return.

I've wondered this myself. At 4-6 and perhaps even 5-7, I can't see the argument for p2p versus corporate bonds secured by actual assets.

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Foliofn - LC / Re: Discount on notes Liquidation
« on: November 17, 2017, 08:45:16 AM »
My program runs several times per minute, and I have no reason to believe others are different.

Fred, did you program this yourself, buy such a program, or are you using one of the 3rd party apps (e.g. NSR, peercube, etc.)

12
Investors - LC / Re: LC Article on Seeking Alpha
« on: October 26, 2017, 06:22:42 AM »
The probability of bankruptcy is higher in high yield bonds. And high yield bonds are often unsecured...

I think the probably of bankruptcy in those funds is much less than the probability of a consumer stopping installment loan payments, as demonstrated by LC performance.

13
Investors - LC / Re: LC Article on Seeking Alpha
« on: October 20, 2017, 08:37:50 AM »
What would you consider outrageously great returns? I'm relatively new to Lending Club and would like to hear the perspective from someone who has been around a while.

Thanks
.

I think returns need to be 1-2% greater than a high yield bond fund (e.g. HYG which gives ~6%), so at least 7-8%. At the end of the day, these are non-secured loans, so the return has to be higher than corporate loans which are at least "secured" by assets that could be sold in the event of bankruptcy, where bondholders have first right.

In addition, LC has a terrible tax structure, all interest is taxes as income, but losses are only seen as capital gains losses. Bonds funds don't suffer from this if you just hold on to them. So LC needs to have increased returns secondary to this effect as well.

Right now, in my opinion, there is basically no reason to keep money in the program if returns are 3-6%.

14
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: October 16, 2017, 01:50:42 PM »
They definitely lowered standards and lowered rates after going public to try and increase revenue, but LC has been hurting as well (just look at their profits, stock price, etc.). I think the big difference is just the increased competition in the field. Before it was just LC and prosper. Now Goldman Sachs, American Express, Discover financial, Sofi, Earnest, Bestegg, etc. are all in the same field. There is just so much competition. As a result, both LC stockholders and LC investors are hurting. The only people who are benefiting from all of this are borrowers (especially the ones who just take their $40,000 and run away, lol).

15
Foliofn - LC / remaining automated options?
« on: October 02, 2017, 08:45:57 AM »
With NSR now stopping folio automated investing, after lendingrobot has already done so, what are the remaining options?

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