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Messages - RomanLegend

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1
Investors - LC / Re: LC Picks New Year Sale
« on: December 31, 2019, 08:45:15 PM »
What are your expected returns?  Didn't see you list it anywhere.  Curious what those numbers are these days

JD's Returns are in line with what we have been seeing statistically.  While the user has the ultimate say as to what type of loans they want to view and invest in, a common theme is if a user invests in loans with a scoring of 66+ then they will achieve returns of 9%+.  With much less risk than the average LC Investor.

For $25 bucks, it's worth the investment.


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Investors - LC / LC Picks New Year Sale
« on: December 30, 2019, 04:13:52 PM »
Hey All!

LCPicks is running a New Year Sale.  Signup now is $25 for the entire year.  Calibrate the software to the type of loans you want to see and get 1 click investing to get into your loans fast.  Try us out for free for 2 weeks, no credit card needed until you would like to formally signup.

www.lcpicks.com

PM me if you have any question and I'll be quick to help!

Thanks & Happy Investing,

-Chris   

3
Investors - LC / Re: Six month review of my Lending Club account
« on: January 24, 2019, 11:43:40 PM »
JD,

Any new update on your portfolio?

Thanks,

-Chris

4
Investors - LC / Good Loan Hanging Around
« on: August 18, 2018, 03:32:27 AM »
My software (www.lcpicks.com) spit out this loan that seems to be only 63% funded.  Check it out and let me know what you think.  Good return, good DTI, low payment.  Tell me what you guys think...

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Investors - LC / Re: Six month review of my Lending Club account
« on: March 08, 2018, 12:38:45 PM »
Awesome JD.  Really glad to hear its working out for you so far!

-Chris

6
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 11:45:18 PM »
Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.

Its nice that you say that, but it doesn't mean anything unless you are more specific.   Show us some correlation.  Show us something.

Quote
I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.

No, you've shown us that you're willing to share nothing, explain nothing, never speak in quantitative terms, etc.

How about something quantitative.

I understand your point of view and I'll see if I can share something with more substance.  However, I think it is fair to say that I will not give you anything that could jeopardize my investment.  Give me a few days.

Also, I agree with JD that in the future, when more of a track record is established we will use the results from other investors to advertise and answer rebuttal's of questions about the software.  And not advertise the inner workings of the algorithm.  A hedge fund manager tells you the types of funds in their portfolio (maybe even the top 10 stocks), but never the true blend or how much they invest in each one.  Yet people invest with them anyways based on historical return of that fund or index.  This is no different in that regard.


7
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 02:45:11 PM »
Ok.  Decided to try it.  Took forever to calculate.  I get 49.7/82.  I have no idea what that means.  The rest of the web site is just lists of notes?  I don't get it.

I don't want to speak for LC picks but it is my understand that the closer you are to 66/82 (or higher) the better off your account is.

Reminds me of the old TV show "The Prisoner".  I'm sure I'm quoting badly, but the intro goes something like this...
Prisoner: Who is number one?
Detached voice: You are number six.
Prisoner: I'm a man, not a number!

49.7 and 66  are "just numbers".  Ok, so my choices rate lower than he things is "good" based on some mysterious criteria which we know absolutely nothing about.  So...?  Unless we know something about this mysterious rating system, then those numbers have no meaning.

Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.  I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.  All I would say to you is try it for the 2 week free trial and get a feel for it.  If you do not like it, or you do not trust our approach, delete your account.  We definitely won't take anything personal.  Ultimately this is about making money and performance which we have dedicated our time to specialize in.  You have to at least respect that.

Thanks for trying us out!

-Chris

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Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 01:59:09 PM »
Ok.  Decided to try it.  Took forever to calculate.  I get 49.7/82.  I have no idea what that means.  The rest of the web site is just lists of notes?  I don't get it.

I don't want to speak for LC picks but it is my understand that the closer you are to 66/82 (or higher) the better off your account is.

Thanks JD.  And yes, you are correct.  With the way we derived the scoring we've seen the ability to repeat a 9.75%-12.5% interest rate for users who purchase loans great than 66+ (see the attached chart for reference).  These are very nice returns however we do it while maintaining a ~2% default rate (based on cash, not number of loans).

The path forward is taking whatever 'x' score you have and getting it up to 66+.  A score lower than 66, to our scoring, means that you are more likely to have a higher rate of defaults than 2%.  That is over simplifying it a bit, but that is the basic premise.   

Some loans can have lower scoring and be perfectly good loans but to maintain a very low default rate you have to be a bit more conservative.

Hope that helps,

-Chris

9
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 01:48:14 PM »
When using the 1-Click Investing feature from the subscription plan, aren't quite a few of the picks 100% funded by the time even by the fastest time one can click?  Also, would 1-click be for each loan, or for the whole batch of filtered loans?  I couldn't find any of those details on the subscription page, while on the trial period.

Initially I was doing everything by hand and I would miss loans from time to time.  More than what I was willing to miss.  Since everything is automated now I miss much much less.  The emails come out sub-second with analysis completed.  So I react to that email ASAP when I have cash available.  Honestly, maybe one a month now.  Used to be 1 a week for me.

It is one click per loan as of right now.  Future enhancements will potentially include automated investing and bulk (multi-loan) purchasing.  As customers have been asking for both recently.

-Chris

10
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 01:44:06 PM »
So have a few of you created accounts and handed this guy your account key?  Tell me your experience... ie nothing bad happened?  You think he's safe?

Fred,

We've thought about, and take security of this site very, very seriously.  After reviewing the security specs we decided to invest in heavier vault protection.  The biggest thing we did was create two separate vaults.  One stores passwords the other stores keys.  Another thing we did was make it virtually impossible to get to both.  This does not come with a small cost but we saw the value in the investment for the end users.

This is a good/fair question and should be asked to any company who is asking for your API key.

Hope that helps,

-Chris

11
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 09, 2018, 08:10:20 PM »
the higher the score of a note the less likely the loan is to default

How do you relate profitability with the default risk? In theory, the interest rate should already track with the default risk. Taking greater risk is rewarded with higher returns and conversely investing in lower default risk should have lower returns.  You may be able to arbitrate if you can beat LC's algorithm, but they've been getting better with time. 

Is your method an improvement on LC risk ratings? Or is the portfolio score giving a risk adjusted expected return?


I ask because I've toyed with doing something similar myself and I'm curious how you went about it.

Yea, it was quite the evolution along a slow road to settle on the best strategy...

I agree that if LC was perfect the interest rate would track with the default rate.  By asking a lot of questions over the years to their customer service you realize that not all loans are treated equally.  They also have a vested interest to process as many loans as they can to the market so they can make their money in platform fees etc...  Speed reduces due diligence based on statistics. 

Given all of that, there are holes.  Initially, I thought it would be more.  But the algorithm spits out about 2-4% of all the loans on the market annually.  These are the loans that are represented by a score of 66+.  Loans with lower scores can still be viable investments but those loans have indicators that they carry a higher default risk than the higher scoring loans.  Once you are buying in the 66+ group you are more confident that you will have a lower default rate (<2% based on the amount of cash defaulted) and the performance of your portfolio now depends on the avg interest rates that you are purchasing (highest LCPicks score with the highest interest rate available).  I realized I could get my portfolio to my target ANAR I wanted much quicker/easier once I was more confident in what I was buying.  So I started with risk mitigation first and maximizing my interest rate second.

My personal account was the initial guinea pig account with all the learning inefficiencies in it and I have 372 loans with only 19 defaults. A second, very interesting finding was once I switched methods the loans that I had default were actually defaulting less than previous loans.  Aka, paying back 20 of the 25 vs 5 of the 25.  Makes a real difference in performance over time not to mention new/continued purchasing power of future loans.

Hope this helps.

12
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 08, 2018, 03:22:05 AM »

Taxable account
53.3/82 (winding down taxable account, sold most of the good notes on folio a while ago)

SEP IRA
53.3/82  (winding down IRA, sold most of the good notes on folio a while ago)

ROTH IRA
53.5/82  (stopped reinvesting recently, didn't sell notes on folio)

These are pretty good numbers.  Do you have a large volume of notes in each?

Note totals:

1836 (394 Issued/Current)
3968  (648 Issued/Current)
5577 (2401 Issued/Current)

Yea, that is a large volume.  What is your ANAR for each as well as loan distribution by percentage?

13
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 08, 2018, 03:17:41 AM »
Quote
71 / 82 is the highest portfolio score I've seen yet.  Great job!  I'd be interested to see your loan distribution by grade.

My grade breakdown:

Grade   %
A        19.20%
B        34.40%
C        26.40%
D        16.00%
E        4.00%

Can you do the avg score by grade as well?  Thanks.

14
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 07, 2018, 12:03:55 PM »
One thing we have been really working on is the overall portfolio score (portfolio health, if you will).  I was wondering if anyone would mind creating their account and posting their LC Picks Portfolio Score. 

Chris-  can give a little more background on the portfolio score?  I'm curious what you are measuring and how to best use it.  Undoubtedly there are aspects that you cannot share and I wouldn't ask for the algorithm, but can you give us a short sales pitch on why to use it?


Sure thing.  The basic premise is that the higher the score of a note the less likely the loan is to default (we've shown <2% default rate).  What we've derived is that if you invest in only loans with a score of 66+ you can easily get ANAR of 9.7%+.  We've seen as high as 12.5% but 9%-10% seems to be very repeatable.

From there, we realized that most clients will already have existing portfolios with many loans in them.  So we also wanted to score every loan that a user has already purchased. Which can get a bit tricky considering vintage, etc...  So now, you can see how likely your portfolio is susceptible to defaults by seeing how close you are to 66+.

If your score is 59 then we would suggest investing in the higher end scoring (70+) until you can get your whole portfolio score up to the mid 60's.  If your score is already really good say 70's, then you can be a little more liberal in buying slightly lower ranked loans if it has a desirable/higher interest rate (15%+, etc...) to maximize your overall portfolio return.

15
Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 06, 2018, 11:44:14 PM »
I like what you are doing with this.  I just put in my D-G grade account, as built (mostly) by BlueVestment.  64 charged off loans so far, distributed as shown below.  Overall score on this is 44.6/82.



The LC Picks strategy is really to invest in scores of 66+ to average 9-12% returns.  If that principal was followed you would have only realized ~6 charge offs.  Allowing more of your money to work longer.   

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