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Messages - Reginald

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1
General Discussion / Re: Fundrise Income eREIT
« on: November 30, 2019, 11:11:10 AM »
Here are the numbers from my FundRise account -
You can find them at: https://fundrise.com/account/performance


Because this is cut and paste you have to read it like this:

Columns:
-------------
Name
Q1
Q2
Q3
Partial
Q4
YTD


Data by REIT
-----------------
Reporting NAV
1.7%
1.7%
1.2%
1.0%
5.8%
Income eREIT
Operating
2.4%
1.9%
1.7%
1.4%
7.6%
Growth eREIT
Operating
2.5%
2.1%
1.1%
2.3%
8.3%
East Coast eREIT
Stabilizing
3.2%
2.1%
1.6%
1.4%
8.5%
Heartland eREIT
Stabilizing
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.9%
5.8%
West Coast eREIT
Stabilizing
1.8%
1.7%
1.8%
0.8%
6.3%
Los Angeles eFund
Ramping up
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
National eFund
Ramping up
0.0%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
Income eREIT II
Ramping up
1.7%
2.6%
1.7%
1.2%
7.3%
Growth eREIT II
Ramping up
0.0%
2.5%
0.2%
0.5%
3.4%
Weighted average
1.7%
1.7%
1.2%
1.0%
5.8%

2
General Discussion / Re: Anyone looked into Cadre?
« on: November 30, 2019, 10:32:44 AM »
I too am evaluating opening an account and investing with Cadre. Here are some examples of what they are offering:


https://cadre.com/insights/opportunity-zones-101-guide/



Cadre is a New York-based financial technology company that provides individuals and institutions direct access to large commercial real-estate properties. Wikipedia
Founded: 2014, New York, NY
CEO: Ryan Williams
Headquarters location: New York, NY
Founders: Ryan Williams, Jared Kushner, Joshua Kushner
Managing directors: Dan Rosenbloom (Investments), Dimitrios Pilitsis (Investments), Josephine Scesney (Finance, Operations)
Type of business: Limited liability company




Important Disclosures
Performance Not Guaranteed: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are not guaranteed and may not reflect actual future performance.

Risk of Loss: All securities involve a high degree of risk and may result in partial or total loss of your investment.

Liquidity Not Guaranteed: Investments offered by Cadre are illiquid and there is never any guarantee that you will be able to exit your investments on the Secondary Market or at what price an exit (if any) will be achieved.

Not a Public Exchange: The Cadre Secondary Market is NOT a stock exchange or public securities exchange, there is no guarantee of liquidity and no guarantee that the Cadre Secondary Market will continue to operate or remain available to investors.


Managed Portfolio

Automatic diversification into 5 assets
Target Return Range
10-15%
IRR
5-7%
Yield
JOIN WAITLIST

Premier Place

Office
Dallas, TX
Target Returns
12.4%
IRR
7.1%
Cash Yield
JOIN WAITLIST

Central Park

Multifamily
Orlando, FL
Target Returns
10.3%
IRR
5.7%
Cash Yield
JOIN WAITLIST

Magnolia Ridge

Multifamily
Denver, CO Metro
Target Returns
10.0%
IRR
6.1%
Cash Yield





Let me know if you have positive or negative feedback!

Thanks

3
Investors - LC / Re: LC loan quality shift April 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 12:48:43 PM »
It does indeed seem that LC is sending the better quality (lower liklihood of late/non payment) to Institutional Investors. The quality has dropped, and along with the any hope of a reasonable return given the risk  :-\

4
Investors - LC / Re: Other Investment Options at Strata
« on: August 22, 2019, 12:34:09 PM »
A rollover is not the same as a Transfer. You can make multiple transfers into and out of a Strata Account IRA, as long as the type of IRA doesnt change. Institution to Institution transfers, are simpler and do not involve them cutting a check and sending it to you.  - Contact the recipient institution and fill out the paperwork there. Its an ugly process, and takes a week or so to settle. I advise doing it no more than once a year unless you are desperately in need of it in the other IRA account.

If you "withdraw" from your Lending club account (Under the Transfer Tab menu), it moves money into Strata and out of LC, however its still part of the same IRA account at Strata. From the IRS point of view nothing has happened. At this point the money sits there and earns bank interest. Something like .02%/yr. Once you have enough money in the Strata account to transfer to your other IRA (eg., Schwab IRA) you can initiate the transfer from there (eg. Schwab). This is still not a taxable event. Do not rollover, transfer.

I believe Strata charges $25 or so per transfer. So fewer is better. Once the account value goes below a threshold like $10,000 the annual fee, which is normally paid by LC to Strata, has to be paid as well.

Seems that when you get down to something like $200, its all work and very little upside. Strata wins in the end with the annual fees and transfer fees.

Does anyone know if they have an account closing procedure too? Hopefully its not as arcane. All in all its a real drag trying to get your IRA money out of Strata and back to where it's fairly liquid again.  Strata has been an experience I wish I never had.

Thanks for starting this thread.  I wish that Strata would list the names of the companies they work with. I would rather stick some of that money into something like Gold or Silver bullion.

Good Luck everyone.

5
Investors - LC / Re: LC new interest rates Aug 2019
« on: August 22, 2019, 11:18:17 AM »

According to those still actively purchasing notes, LC returns are looking better than they have in years. There are clearly many risks of course. Where is that crystal ball when you need it?


I think you are right that the lower grade C&D grades are starting off well in 2019, but that could change over time if we are in a recession.

Risks do indeed abound with lower grades OVER TIME. Dont confuse the "Rates" that Lending Club is paying on unsecured notes with the rates you can get elsewhere, especially US Treasuries. I've seen skyrocketing charge-off rates decimate any real return in the long run. 



Check this out for more details on LC's Loan Statistics page: https://www.lendingclub.com/info/demand-and-credit-profile.action


6
Investors - LC / Re: How did this note ever recieve an A1 grade?
« on: November 10, 2018, 12:37:52 PM »
Huh - just noticted another one - lines of credit 7,  total lines of credit 21 ? why the huge discrepancy?  All this with 12,500/month income.  ;-)

7
Investors - LC / How did this note ever recieve an A1 grade?
« on: November 10, 2018, 12:28:11 PM »
Found this in my recent chargeoff's.

13 payments were made with 23 to go.
Loan Summary
Note Issuance Date   4/20/17
Note Amount   $25
Loan Amount   $12,000
Rate   A1 : 5.32%
Term   36  months
Status   Charged Off
Recent Credit Score   560-564
Credit Score Change ?
Down
Received Payments

 Check the origial listing:

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanDetail.action?loan_id=105101138

  • Is this the best LC can do in underwriting thir loans?

     
  • Can you spot at least 1 red flag?

Member_112971850's Profile (all information not verified unless noted with an "*")
Home Ownership   MORTGAGE
Job Title   lieutenant
Length of Employment   10+ years
Gross Income   $12,500 / month
Debt-to-Income (DTI)   7.57%
Location   110xx
Member_112971850's Credit History (as reported by credit bureau on 4/7/17)
Credit Score Range:   720-724
Earliest Credit Line   04/2001
Open Credit Lines   7
Total Credit Lines   21
Revolving Credit Balance   $12,609.00
Revolving Line Utilization   45.50%

Inquiries in the Last 6 Months   0
Accounts Now Delinquent   0
Delinquent Amount   $0.00
Delinquencies (Last 2 yrs)   0
Months Since Last Delinquency   40

Public Records On File   0
Months Since Last Record   n/a
Months Since Last Major Derogatory   n/a
Collections Excluding Medical   0

8
Investors - LC / Re: LC increases interest rates 11/8/2018
« on: November 10, 2018, 11:25:52 AM »
Really, what does a quarter point increase really matter with LC's skyrocketing chargeoff rates?   The bottom line is what is the total return. These are not secured loans we are talking about here.

Investors,

Take a look at your last month's statement (found by clicking on your account name, open the PDF for the month or summary for the year), On the first page of the summary, on the right-hand side, look at the EARNINGS SUMMARY. Is your total what you expected?

On the LC statistics page,  https://www.lendingclub.com/info/demand-and-credit-profile.action , look at the interactive table entitled LOAN PERFORMANCE DETAIL. In it you can see that the Adjusted Net Average Return has never been that great. There are some serious effects of chargeoff's going on there.
 

Every vintage of loans coming from LC since 2012 is worse than the year before. See the interactive diagram entitled "NET ANNUALIZED RETURN BY VINTAGE " at: https://www.lendingclub.com/info/demand-and-credit-profile.action

My point is that this interest rate increase is not enough to sustain the investments given the change in the rate of chargeoffs (which are creeping upward). In addition more stable and tax favored investments such as 3 -5 year municipal bonds, Insured CD's and Treasuries make LC loans a bad investment -despite the meager 25 basis points.

9
Investors - LC / Re: Is LC no longer interested in retail investors?
« on: October 19, 2018, 03:22:15 PM »
I've noticed that over the past 6 months or so, my automatic investing (with filters!!) are finding fewer notes that qualify. I have tightened my own requirements since last year, following a sharp rise in charge-offs.

I dont know if that has anything to do with the question of retail vs commercial investors, but I do think that LC seems to give up the better quality notes super fast probably to commerical vendors or third party apps that are designed to cherry pick the loans automatically (as opposed to using their default 'automatic investing' algolrithm with 'filters').

In an attempt to find why so many loans were suddenly charging off, I started to use several diffenent filters, and then mark the qualifying loans by putting them into portfolios. While I seem to have made a dent in *new* (early) chargeoffs, I cant find very many loans that qualify, so I increased the amount to be invested in each note. Even with that I end up with extra dead money in my account.

As a retail investor, I think we are given the leftovers after commercial interests have picked over the better loans. I believe commercial players have more data, expertise and systems that can pick notes, so they have a distinct advantage.

The name of the geam in loan picking is to reduce risk and maximise return. If you believe the LC site data that would mean choosing more B loans (or higher grades). Its hard to find lower grade loans that arent going to charge off early.

I've been hit hard with chargeoffs. The effects of chargeoffs on overall earnings are so bad I am willing  to be very selective to get have to Positive Return (Interest-Chargeoffs/Principal+Recoveries). Its better to be out of the market in cash (or ub safter investments like govt insured CD's and Treasuries) than in a market where you are statistically likely to have losees year over year.




10
Investors - LC / Re: Ridiculous number of defaults, anyone else?
« on: August 28, 2018, 11:23:34 AM »
Ryan, I agree.

Its difficult for regular people to do a good enough job of screening the loans that Lending Club has already vetted. I guess thats why there are these other third party platforms that will try to do it for you.

I use LC's filters to screen my loans but every once in a while I end up with a loser like Mr. A1 Medical Expenses.  This is an outlier, but its also a reminder that LC is not looking out for you if you just use Automatic Investing - even with filters.

Reg

11
Investors - LC / Re: Take on debt and put it in Lending Club?
« on: August 24, 2018, 12:55:21 PM »
To reduce risk, I would *only* borrow money from lenders who dont care whether or not you pay them back. Like, uhmm, for example Lending Club.  ;D

12
Investors - LC / Re: Ridiculous number of defaults, anyone else?
« on: August 24, 2018, 12:43:03 PM »
I think its a combination of Lending Club *not* doing a good enough job of underwriting, and at the same time  *not*  doing a good job of collecting or notifying people who are behind on payments. LC depends upon automatic withdrawls from peoples "bank accounts", which seem to fail from the get go. What bothers me is that LC doesnt seem to care, outside of making robo calls to a number which probably is blocking the incoming calls automatically.

Either that or people with perfect credit are scamming the investors.  Either way LC makes money on origination fees, late fees,  collections, and even chargeoffs.

Check this loan for a WTF moment:

https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanDetail.action?loan_id=132970216

This loan was made to someone with an A1 credit rating, who has not paid back one red cent.  Why would someone risk their perfect credit score?   The purpose of the loan was Medical Expenses. Its past 30 days due and will be delinquent soon. Do you think the borrower is even aware of this? Does LC care? (Do I care ? - yes I'm going to be out $25).

 :-\ 

Loan ID: 132970216 (Joint Application1) | Lending Club Prospectus
Amount Requested   
$21,000
Loan Purpose   Medical expenses
Loan Grade   A1
Interest Rate   5.31%
Loan Length   3 years (36 payments)
Monthly Payment   $632.32 / month
Funding Received   $21,000 (100.00% funded)
Investors   601 people funded this loan
Note issued on   6/18/18 3:18 AM
Note Status   Late (31-120 days)
Loan Submitted on   5/28/18 8:10 AM
Credit Score Range:   820-824
Earliest Credit Line   07/2004
Open Credit Lines   7
Total Credit Lines   20
Revolving Credit Balance   $4,134.00
Revolving Line Utilization   11.80%
Inquiries in the Last 6 Months   0
Accounts Now Delinquent   0

???  ???


13
Investors - LC / Re: Higher Interest Rates
« on: July 03, 2018, 04:24:26 PM »
FYI I'm pulling money out of my LC account as the loans either pay off early or charge off. I am then building a 3 year CD ladder with the proceeds. I'm betting on this beating LC's "solid returns" before and after taxes by a big margin.  >:(

14
Investors - LC / Re: Higher Interest Rates
« on: July 03, 2018, 04:20:41 PM »
Lending Club's interest rate hike is better than a sharp stick in the eye, but it is not enough for me to jump back in. I think I would need a bit higher rate to compensate for the perceived risk I feel at this point in the business cycle and the taxable disadvantage of note charge-offs.

In my humble opinion, LC should be compensating investors at least and extra 50 basis points for every 25 basis points (or more) Fed Funds Rate hike, when you add in the risk of unsecured, partially-vetted loans. They also should start reporting on the surge in late payments and  chargeoff's since 2015. I have no real evidence of the risk levels decreasing despite LC's insistance on their having increased dilligence. In fact, my own experience is the newer vintages are worse, and therefore deserve even more interest increases for the added risk. The new website interface makes it harder to track performance than ever. After taxes, its ugly and non-sustainable for retail investors.

15
Investors - LC / Re: New Platform
« on: July 02, 2018, 06:05:26 PM »
It seems that every week different features of their web site have stopped working.

For example,  the statistics page https://www.lendingclub.com/info/statistics-performance.action
has not worked for a long time.

Also it has become much more unwieldy to examine your chargeoff's from the "My Notes at a Glance" section if you click on the number of charge-offs, it will dump you in a general holdings page that shows all statuses. If you click on the status column you then have to pull down a menu and select charge-offs. This is about 4 extra interactions and a whole lot of web traffic to execute a simple query.  I dont think they test their web site with real data or they would notice all the web-page timeouts.

Terrible engineering. Terrible underwriting. Dubious accounting.  :-[

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