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Topics - twigster

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1
Investors - LC / wide range of FICO scores for A loans
« on: September 27, 2017, 12:40:51 PM »
I started converting over my portfolio to A loans since December of 2016.  At that time I had basically no A loans, now I have about 1100.  Since they are all fairly new loans (just reinvesting to buy new A loans), there haven't been that many bad loans yet, so far there are 6 in late 16+ through charged off.  I notice that there is a tendency for the bad loans to have lower initial fico scores (say 680-684) and the initial FICO range is very broad for A loans in general. 

I will note that I backtested screening on FICO in nsr and that screening on FICO has a slight negative outcome historically.

Yesterday I did a screen on existing loans to invest in with FICO greater than 750.  Most of those returned were A loans, although there was a wide range.  There were even some E and F loans in there.  I didn't see right off why the E and F loans with above a 750 FICO would be assigned that grade level.  I have attached screen shots of two of the these high FICO high interest rate loans.

I have general confusion of how lending club uses FICO in the underwriting process and why certain loans with lousy FICO could get an A grade and loans with really good FICO could get a E grade.  I would expect the assigned grade to be more correlated with FICO than it appears to be.  An insights appreciated.


2
General P2P Lending Discussion / US vs UK Tax Treatment of Peer to Peer
« on: October 01, 2016, 01:33:10 PM »
From this podcast:
http://www.lendacademy.com/podcast-75-mike-baliman-london-fintech-podcast/

I gather that the UK used to have similar tax treatment of p2p lending, ie. inability to write off capital loss against interest from other p2p loans.  Now they have changed it as follows in the UK tax law:
Quote
If a peer to peer loan isn’t repaid the lender can set the loss they suffer on the loan against the interest they receive on other peer to peer loans before the income is taxed.
from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/peer-to-peer-lending

Wonder if anything is going on to clear up this seemingly unfair aspect of the US tax code as it relates to p2p loans?  Anyone know if this subject is before the IRS to get a ruling?

I don't think that the authors of the tax system anticipated the obvious unfairness of this.  A simple example is you have 10 p2p loans at 10% interest and one goes bad in one year, so you basically break even.  Due to US tax law the loss on the one is not allowed to offset the interest gain so you pay taxes on the interest of the 9 good p2p loans (limit capital loss to $3k) -- so it would seem logical that at some point the IRS would address this. 

3
Investors - LC / BRV Requests: Responses from Lending Club
« on: May 19, 2016, 12:48:59 AM »
I have seen many requesting a BRV type arrangement with LC, here is the response I received back from LC.  I do not think I was aware of PFSC previous to this response. 

Quote
We have taken steps to provide continuity to protect investors and borrowers if Lending Club were to go out of business, including arrangements for backup servicing. If our platform were to fail or we became insolvent, we would work to transfer our Loan servicing obligations to our third-party back-up servicer.

For example, we have executed a backup and successor servicing agreement with Portfolio Financial Servicing Company (“PFSC”). Under this agreement, PFSC stands ready to service borrower loans.

If our agreement with PFSC were to be terminated, we would seek to replace PFSC with another backup servicer. Read more about the specific risks of investing with Lending Club at: https://www.lendingclub.com/public/risk-of-investing.action.

Best Regards,

4
Investors - LC / Final Days of Lending Club CEO Article
« on: May 17, 2016, 11:04:07 AM »
Note sure if this has been posted elsewhere or not, but I found this article very informative with more details about events proceeding the end of the CEOs tenure than had I had previously seen. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inside-final-days-lendingclub-ceo-003000314.html

5
Investors - P / Annualized Return and Past Due Notes
« on: January 13, 2016, 01:44:27 AM »
Both Prosper and Lending club show a Annualized Return on the account page.  With LendingClub there is a slider to include or exclude the effect of past due notes.  The Prosper figure I assume does not take into account the effect of past due Notes, correct?  Here is what they say:
Quote
To calculate Annualized Returns, a total gain or loss is calculated by summing all loan payments received net of principal repayment, credit losses, and servicing costs. The gain or loss is then divided by the average daily amount of principal outstanding to get a simple rate of return. To annualize that rate, we divide it by the dollar-weighted average Note age of your portfolio (calculated in days) and then multiply it by 365. Our Annualized Return calculation includes all Notes issued and sold by Prosper Funding LLC and Prosper Marketplace, Inc. since July 15, 2009.
Also, if you use the ending account value in Prosper to compute XIRR then the computed figure would then again obviously not include the effect of past due notes, correct?

I am doing some comparisons between accounts and just want to verify the above 'fault' with Prosper in that there is no easy way it seems to compute the adjusted return or accurately use the figure that Prosper gives.   

6
LendingRobot / Assign to a Portfolio
« on: November 14, 2015, 09:46:32 AM »
Is there some way to automatically assign auto purchased notes to a specified portfolio?  If not it would be a good feature to add. 

7
Interest Radar / When is the web site being merged?
« on: November 13, 2015, 05:08:30 AM »
I see from the announcement on your web site that there is a parnetship between Interest Radar and BlueVestment and further that:

Quote
The Plan
In two to three months we will start merging the two websites, bringing to BlueVestment the additional features currently available on Interest Radar. Once full functionality has been achieved on the BlueVestment platform, the Interest Radar website will be discontinued.
What Changes Now
For now, nothing changes for you. The Interest Radar site will still offer all of the features it always has, and will continue to be available until the merger with BlueVestment is complete. Your current subscription will be fully honored, regardless of the implementation timeline.

This was announced on June 7th -- is there any update on the merging of the two websites?

8
Archived Sites - No Longer Operating / Apparently Site is Closing
« on: November 13, 2015, 05:00:04 AM »
Per their web site:
Quote
P2PQuant Is Closing

We've decided to close the virtual doors on P2PQuant.

Existing users can still buy notes until December 31st. After that the site will go dark.
We are no longer accepting new users.

P2PQuant was always a side project for both the founders. We've enjoyed it but decided to focus our time in other places.

The site never became very popular. And after 16 months returns with our model were not much better than average.

We recommend customers start using Lending Club's automated investing tools or BlueVestment.

Thank you for using P2PQuant.

9
Investors - LC / LC Statistics From 9/24 and 9/25 look wrong
« on: September 26, 2014, 01:57:38 AM »
I downloaded the 2014 - 06/30/14 all loan statistics on 9/24 and 9/25.  What I would like to do is to start automatically downloading these statistics files daily and track changes in such things as status, recent credit score, etc. 
The downloaded files are LoanStatus3c_secure1_1409240125.csv and ....0126.csv (attached).

However when comparing the two files it seems strange that the loan status changes in one day don't seem to make sense.  Example loan id 20127968 moves from a status of 'Current' to 'Late (16-30 days).  If the snapshoting is done daily, it should move from 'Current' to 'In Grace Period'.  Then loan 19687844 moves from 'Fully Paid' to 'Current' which makes no sense.   
The combined statistics file is LoanStats3c_serure...._comb.xlsx.  There is a column at the top ORIG_140924 for the original loan status from 9/24 and NEW_140925 for the new loan status from 9/25.

One other related question.  Is there a way to pull up a screen with loan details/payment history of loans not in our own account, just by the loan ID? 

I well might be doing something wrong, or not understanding the statistics file.  What I am hoping to accomplish is to freeze daily changes in a larger pool of loans that I have in my account and then do analysis on such questions as when to sell a loan, etc.

[attachments contain first 700 lines of each file because of size constraints]



10
Interest Radar / Not Late Selections Don't Seem to Work for Folio
« on: May 04, 2014, 01:06:13 PM »
Just started playing around with IR.  I am on the analysis page.  When I select both the Not Late For selection options under the Foliofn Filters section and Run, the first folio loan that lists is loan 9806499 note 36200812 which was late previously.  On the Folio site when selecting the Never Late flag this loan does not list.   
https://www.lendingclub.com/account/loanPerf.action?loan_id=9806499&order_id=14863216&note_id=36200812

Any pointers on how to get the previously late loans not to be selected would be appreciated. 

Folio Filters Criteria:
Discounted 10%-19%
Discounted < 9%
YTM
0-29%
30-100%
FICO Trend
Up
Note Late For
< 180 days
180+ days
Age
4/5 months
6-11 months
12-23 months
Current Status
Current
Under Show:
Foliofn Listings



11
NSR Invest / Portfolio Analysis numbers
« on: April 30, 2014, 09:59:46 AM »
I am trying to reconcile the loan numbers in the portfolio analyzer for LC.  On the first screen, analytics -> Lending Club/Portfolio Analyzer there is a number of notes, in my case 289 which is equal to the total number on LC (total of in funding, issued & current, fully paid, non current, and charge offs).   After running the Analysis it shows, under 'All Matching Loans/Total', a count = 277.  My total loans break down as follows:
In Funding = 2
Issued & Current = 274
Fully Paid = 8
Non Current = 4
Charge Offs = 1
In the extended listings on NSR it shows current = 255, Issued = 9, late 16 - 30 = 2 late 31 - 120 = 2, default = 0 and chared off = 1.  255 + 9 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 269.  It does not show the 8 fully paid loans which appear to be part of the 277.  The numbers don't seem to tie as there are 274 Issued and Current but on NSR is it only categorizing 264 as issued and current.

Under grade the numbers don't seem to tie at all.  For example for D loans my numbers are as follows:
Issued & Current = 31
In Review = 2
Fully Paid = 1
but the count field on NSR grade D shows 24.  Some of the other count fields seem to be off as well, but the total of all the grades is 277. 
Under the extended sections for loan grade D it shows 17 as current and 6 as issued which = 23, it does not show the 1 fully paid loan.

Any help would be appreciated, seems like a good alternate tool to verify ROI. 

12
Foliofn - LC / Always Pay in Grace Period
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:58:01 AM »
How about current but previously late notes that have:
* a long payment history, 7+ payments
* almost always pay in grace period
* recent credit score is even or up

 Basically wondering if those buying folio notes have found that previous grace payment is a good indicator of future default or not. 

 

13
General P2P Lending Discussion / XIRR on partially invested accounts
« on: April 10, 2014, 11:46:38 AM »
I saw some other threads discussing some aspects of using the XIRR formula to calculate returns, but not exactly how to use it with partially invested accounts, so am starting this thread.  I am currently using the XIRR formula on a couple of test accounts which have been opened for 1 year (one prosper, one LC).  I didn't start calculating returns until the accounts were fully invested.  The calculation then takes into account the period dates, start and end balance to compute the rate of return.  This all works fine.

Now on a new ROTH IRA that will take a bit of time to fully fund and may get periodic reinvestments, can the XIRR be used to tell what the rate of return is on the funds which have been invested only and not the idle cash?  Is anyone using it for calculating returns during long periods where there is a percentage of cash sitting in the account? 

14
General P2P Lending Discussion / How to Analyze Secondary Market Loans
« on: April 02, 2014, 10:33:10 PM »
Really enjoyed the podcast Chat with Reflective-Rupee:

http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/lend-academy-podcast/episode/32568034

Some questions brought about by the podcast....
Are there any sites that have more filtering criteria available to find loans (ie. more filtering criteria than are available on Folio itself)?

Can you back-test various strategies on any sites out there?

How to develop a strategy and rules for seeking loans?  There was discussion that typically investors over pay for loans with recent late payments.  Also if there have been several on time payments, reduced credit rating etc. are not so important.   So, are there strategies that have been proven or are they just trial and error?  Any recommended strategies? 

I believe this info is probably all ready out there, just unable to find it.

Again thanks for the great podcast, really interesting info about investing in the secondary market. 

 

15
Investors - P / Prosper IRA Fees
« on: April 02, 2014, 10:19:21 PM »
Anyone have current information on Prosper IRA Fees?
Amount needed to open account for no fees in the first year?
Any fees in subsequent years?
Fees to close account?

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