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Topics - avid investor

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Investors - LC / What's Your LC ROI?
« on: February 14, 2020, 10:57:41 AM »
I've been investing in LC notes since 2008.  I used to post on here a lot, but not in recent years. 
We've all seen the changes, downturn of ROI (mostly due to increase in write offs), paucity of notes to invest in, etc.

I'm at a crossroads, having fine-tuned my investments through the API to the most conservative based on my criteria, and seeing something of a rebound in my ROI.  On the other hand, I have over $11,000 in sideline cash since there are so few notes available.  It used to be an October through December problem, but here we are in February and there's still nothing to buy.  69 notes available this morning, all dogs.

I'd like to hear from my fellow investors on what they are seeing for ROI.  I can't trust LC's ROI % calculations.  Not when I look at my LC IRA accounts (which have had no cash added or subtracted for years).  That ROI is pretty simple to calculate.  How much has the account grown in 1 year?  That's the ROI % with no cash added or subtracted from the account.  That calculation never comes up to their number.

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Investors - LC / Note Aging Algorithm
« on: January 23, 2018, 02:31:31 PM »
Does anybody have a reasonably good note aging algorithm that they want to share?  The "31 - 120" that LC provides is virtually meaningless as a predictor of near-term losses.  I'm not looking for 100% accuracy, but I realize that payments to date / months since origination is not a good way to go because borrowers might have been paid way ahead months back and yet have not paid in 3 months.  Similarly, a borrower that is on a payment plan to catch up might be harder to factor in.

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Investors - LC / Quick Overview of Folio Strategies?
« on: October 19, 2015, 01:35:24 PM »
Hi all.  I have never traded on the Folio platform.  Frankly, I'm not sure of the typical expectation for selling notes on that platform.

Hi understand selling under-performing notes.  Buyers willing to buy them are going to discount their current value in hopes that the borrower will pay them off and the investor will get a large payday. 

For well-performing notes, what is a reasonable expectation for the sale price?  For example, if you have a $100 original note at 16% with a $90 balance, no late pmts, etc., what would a fair price typically be for this note that has 4 years to go?

Any help understanding the typical "sell" strategy would be appreciated.

Thanks!

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Investors - LC / API Giving ISE's for "Get Portfolios"
« on: March 03, 2015, 08:50:39 AM »
Anyone else having this problem?  It seems to happen erratically but somewhat regularly.

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Investors - LC / LC Business Loans
« on: February 11, 2015, 09:08:17 AM »
Are LC's business loans (up to $300k) also unsecured loans?

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Investors - LC / Notes I Had Funded "Disappearing"
« on: January 28, 2015, 08:36:36 AM »
Since the new API was rolled-out, I have been maintaining a detailed status on all notes I funded.  For notes where the "last update date" was not today's date, and the status was "In Review" or "In Funding", I simply changed their status to "Declined" as it seemed safe to assume that these were loans not issued, and therefore no longer reported to me in the "Detailed Notes Owned" output.  Using this method, I was always able to match up the details for any status with the LC web platform data.

Something happened on 11/6/2014, however, and I now have a bunch of notes that were in "Current" or "In Grace Period" on that day that I am no longer getting any updates on.  Was this the day that LC issued an "oops" and "bought back" a bunch of notes that were issued?  It doesn't seem to have happened since.

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Investors - LC / Bad Data in Loan - Crashing My API Client
« on: January 09, 2015, 04:28:46 PM »
Multi-byte characters in the empTitle field of loan ID 38509961 is crashing my UTF-8 dependent client process.  Apparently this data is not checked when borrowers have finger-fumbles in applying for a loan.  Beware.  Hope he gets funded/rejected soon!

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Investors - LC / LC Loan Aging
« on: December 14, 2014, 07:30:42 PM »
So, now that we can get the latest status and payment information for each of the notes we hold through the new API, it's no longer necessary to download the .CSV all the time to get the info.  Yeah!  Among other things (like calculating ROI), I want to get better aging info for past due accounts beyond "31 -120 days".  Always thought that was BS, as it tells you nothing about the trends in your notes (like are you going to have a huge write-off next month, or is this amount more evenly distributed 30/60/90/120? 

So, in order to break this down, I considered using "today - last payment date = days old".  Well, that's only true if the borrower pays the full amount each month until they just stopped paying.  If they fall 90 behind, then make a single payment, they're still 60 days behind when the payment was only 20 days ago.  So, obviously that is wrong.

Then, I thought that I would determine the aging by amount expected to-date vs. amount paid, using the method:
1) determine "loan performance days" as TODAY - issue date of the loan
2) determine "loan performance months" as "loan performance days" / 30  (truncated to the lower integer)
3) multiply amortized monthly payment by # of loan performance months to get to "payments expected to date"
4) determine payment amount past due by "payments expected to date" - (loan performance months X monthly payment amount)
5) months behind = total past due / monthly payment amount

This seems to work quite well, until I came across a loan (#1539580) where the borrower fell behind, made a huge payment, and then has skipped the last two payments.  Of course, he is past due because payments are due each month (you can't just pay ahead).  However, LC shows him as 31-120 when my method, of course, has him 7 months ahead.

Bottom line is, will LC write this guy off if he makes no payments for 3 more months, or will they let him go as long as he is ahead of the amortization schedule?

Anybody know?

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Investors - LC / Fidelity's Site - Ugliest Brokerage Site Ever?
« on: December 12, 2014, 08:55:56 AM »
So, I logged in today to see the status of my account.  Not quite so cut-and-dry as I had funded the account with more money before we knew about the 350 share limit (much less the 250 we all got), and I bought some more shares at the opening price.  So, all of the cash still shows on the Positions page., they don't update it until it settles.  The page is also hard to interpret, even with these few holdings.  Had to click all over the place to see balances, history, etc.  Thinking I'll be transferring these shares out pronto.

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Investors - LC / Any New Loans Lately?
« on: November 28, 2014, 12:24:21 PM »
Seriously.  Has ANYONE found ANY loans to buy in the last 6 feeding times?

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Investors - LC / New (Especially Quality) Notes Really Trailing Off?
« on: November 13, 2014, 06:43:55 AM »
Have had to lower the APRs of the loans I am funding to get anything that passes through my (admittedly stringent) filters.  Sideline cash was piling up.  But noticing that each feeding time only sees about 100+ new loans being dropped.  Frequently, 0 to 1 of those make it through my filters.  Anybody else having trouble staying invested at good return rates?  I don't do any A's or lower interest B's.

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Investors - LC / How to Identify "Removed" Loans
« on: November 08, 2014, 09:25:26 AM »
Ok, API users, can you help me with this one?  Now that we get all of our notes back through the API, I noticed that my notes (by status) don't total to the browser's totals.  Then I realized why.  Those that I chose to fund that were never consummated (showing as "removed" if you plug the loan-id into the LC URL in a browser manually), still show in my notes as "in funding" or "in review", but in fact are dead because of the underwriting decision (or the borrower's unwillingness to play ball with underwriter requests).  The problem that I have is how to know when to "remove" those notes from my own system, since they of course don't appear in the notes retrieved from the API.  I don't want to have to continually download the massive loans file manually just to find the status of these, and they no longer post those loans promptly, anyway.  Anyone figured out a remedy?  I thought of using the "expiration date", but that's being removed, and would never result in timely info anyway.  I guess I could just check my "last updated" date and if it wasn't today and the loan was "In Review" or "In Funding", remove it.  It doesn't seem like a very foolproof logic however.

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Investors - LC / Another Curious Datapoint
« on: November 03, 2014, 10:38:25 AM »
If you're using the API, the documentation defines empLength as "Employment length in years. Possible values are between 0 and 10 where 0 means less than one year and 10 means ten or more years."  Makes sense.  I'm glad that they stopped sending this as a string (as in "< 1 year").  However, in today's loan data, I found "empLength":120. 

First, it is outside the enumerated values list.  Secondly, it makes me question whether the element is truly measured in years.  Is this applicant that guy from that retirement commercial that has to live until 150 to retire?

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Investors - LC / LC API Failures
« on: October 29, 2014, 06:05:22 AM »
Noticing that although the new REST API is working in general, it seems to be failing when the heat is on during the normal feeding times.  I am able to perform the HTTP post to get a few new notes, then get a few blank responses (not even a header), then the HTTP post just hangs.  Anyone noticing the same behavior?

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