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Messages - rawraw

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1
Investors - LC / Re: Folio ending August 28th.
« on: August 09, 2020, 09:24:54 PM »
My account just recently got to the point where it rounds to zero.  LendingClub was a great ride,  but since I never used it in a tax advantaged account that spike in losses a few years back made it tax inefficient quicker than I expected.  Plus returns have come down a lot vs. the days where I could sell notes before they missed their payments :)  I miss my virtually risk free profits.  It was a fun ride!  The notes I bought during the LC scandal on the secondary market performed extremely well.  For those sticking around, this may be a similar situation - buy those severely distressed notes :)  If I didn't have prior commitments for my capital, I'd probably be funding up a small LC account for one last hurrah.

The portfolio I manage for my parents continues to do well.  But they've always been in the low grade notes.  I used to constantly warn some extreme people on this board about the risk they were taking with those high grade notes.  Several years later, most left because they complained about their returns and those charge offs  :-\  Who could have seen chasing yield ending badly?

2
Got to get those risk weighted assets ready for credit losses 😊

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Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: June 25, 2020, 10:13:52 AM »
If it makes you feel any better, the hardship equivalent loans we've been making at my employer are performing quite well. So hopefully it won't be an expensive mistake

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Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: May 13, 2020, 07:21:39 AM »
I doubt LC will give any guidance on this, since it is forward looking.

How would I approach it? Well I'd start with the base charge off rates for the loan attributes in 2008 time frame. This would give us a base rate of charge off by risk characteristics.   From there you can make judgements on whether to adjust it up or down depending on the trends in the economy.

They won't just keep deferring, that is typically a frowned upon lending practice. But there are unique rules being applied now, so it may defer longer than we expect. I'd assume LC is making this up as they go. I work for a consumer lender and we are making it up as we go as well

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General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC workforce reduction
« on: May 09, 2020, 11:23:14 AM »
One thing banks do in crisis is shrink assets. This keeps capital ratios strong. So I am not surprised they don't want to grow a bunch in consumer loans, but the drop is quite amazing

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This is why origination businesses trade at lower multiples. Very volatile earnings stream

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Investors - LC / Re: LC interest rates huge update 3/30/2020
« on: April 15, 2020, 09:08:30 PM »
Oh wow. Seems like a great opportunity

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General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Is It Time To Use The 'R' Word?
« on: March 19, 2020, 12:27:39 PM »
I'd say yes we are in a recession.  Will this last 2 quarters to be called a recession?  Unsure about that.

I think banks will be OK.  I'm starting to buy bank equity and debt exposures.

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Introductions / Re: Open minded lender needed. Here's my situation!
« on: February 29, 2020, 02:31:43 PM »
You are going to need to look into Subprime type lenders. If it's your only BK, some lenders will like it because you can't file BK again for some time. Good luck

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Foliofn - LC / Re: folio loan model prices
« on: February 20, 2020, 10:34:55 AM »
If  you want to trade on it, you'll need to do it more than once a day. Mispriced notes are bought quite quickly

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General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Lending Club Is A Bank
« on: February 20, 2020, 08:06:44 AM »
Fred, I think they meant institutional debt providers, not purchasers of loans
 
Without a portfolio of loans, LendingClub will have extreme volatility of earnings. Balance sheet interest income will mitigate that issue a bit

13
A consistent theme we have seen is younger countries skip the innovations of old and go straight to the new stuff. This has to do with a lack of infrastructure and generally the old innovations take more infrastructure. For example, you see this in many countries where they skipped land lines straight to cell phones. In China, everyone is using Fintech.

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Investors - LC / Re: What's Your LC ROI?
« on: February 15, 2020, 02:52:34 PM »
There is no fact on whether the returns are good or bad. It really depends on the alternatives, your portfolio, and your requirements. Will it be the highest returns possible? No, that would be equities. But perhaps you need more predictable income streams or you want to reduce the volatility of your investments. For me, I'm still a relatively young person although not as young as I once was 😂  and the returns were good enough to be my fixed income alternative earlier. But due to the tax issue and the fact I've decided just to go all in on equities (more or less), I don't have need for an investment like this. But I manage an account for my parents near retirement that suits their requirements very well. It really depends

15
Investors - LC / Re: What's Your LC ROI?
« on: February 15, 2020, 06:55:17 AM »
I don't have my ROI.  I do know that I was involved for ~9 years, but my balance was only large for a year or two since I started as a broke college student.  I have withdrawn 21% more money than I have deposited.  When my account was small, I had zero losses for a long time (because there used to be a way to sell notes before they went bad).  As my account grew in size, that corresponded with the negative trends in LC performance.  I didn't have nearly as risky mix as many on this board, but I had several negative months.  I have always invested in a taxable account and the swing in losses made me hit my tax deduction threshold.  Moved the money to leveraged SP 500 funds, which are more tax efficient.  I know the prior sentence may sound like a joke, but it is an underutilized strategy for buy and hold.

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