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Messages - rawraw

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General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC Stock Does 5 for 1 Reverse Split
« on: October 02, 2019, 08:08:43 AM »
Since they have no earnings then by definition they have no multiple; right?
If they don't have earnings you look at other multiples, like price to sales.

General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC Stock Does 5 for 1 Reverse Split
« on: October 01, 2019, 06:44:00 PM »
What multiple does LC trade at now?

Fred, what do you mean profits? They make loans for less than a bank and will take over 😂

Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: July 29, 2019, 09:33:38 AM »
Sad to see everyone preparing to leave. It's been a fun ride

Investors - LC / Re: Parting gift for you all
« on: March 17, 2019, 08:37:18 AM »
What kind of job causes a conflict with LC? Unless you are working for a firm that just doesn't allow that type of investment

General Discussion / Re: GroundFloor equity offering
« on: March 04, 2019, 04:59:58 PM »
The way they market these raises are a red flag to me.

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club loan default prediction model question
« on: February 20, 2019, 08:08:50 PM »
Good luck to you rawraw.  You'll find auto finance to be a rewarding and challenging industry
It certainly seems that way. I've had exposure to it via reviewing the models and such, but never created them myself.    Thanks for  the luck:)

Investors - LC / Re: Recovery Payment Received for Charged Off Loans
« on: February 20, 2019, 08:06:41 PM »
You can put the list in Excel and use this formula: =match(AnilLoanID,RangeofLoanIDs,0).    Rank by the result. Things with numbers are matches

For example, =match(187383,A:A,0)

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club loan default prediction model question
« on: February 16, 2019, 08:50:58 PM »
There are a lot of opportunities to get started in auto finance if you have the right skillsets.  The typical skillsets that auto finance companies look for are STEM degrees and business degrees.  You can easily look up on a job aggregator to see the job descriptions.  Most auto finance companies are like every other company in they want to be able to make data driven decisions about loan applicants ability to repay on loans.  If you don't have previous financial or lending experience I believe you can still get in the door at an analyst or IT developer level and build your experience.  Even if you can't find an auto finance job you can find an analyst job at a bank and learn about credit and lending in that position.  The important things to know in auto finance is credit bureau data and loan portfolio management.

Getting started in predictive modeling is more broad.  There is a huge swath of companies and industries looking for that skill.  In fact even if you current job doesn't require you could probably take it on as as side project and show how your model would help your current organization.  Here is the secret untold story about predictive modeling that most academics do not tell you.  Predictive modeling is 80% data acquisition and management and 20% modeling.  So make sure you are a data skill hawk meaning that you can download, pull, connect, manipulate, slice, dice, warehouse, store, and distribute data.  That means having skills in SQL, Python, R or other data programming tool.   Trust me your bosses would like it even if you can just manage multiple data sources and provide meaningful data analysis.  Chances are the business decision makers in an organization doesn't know how and doesn't know the data exists.   

Getting your chops up in the statistical and applied math of predictive modeling can be done on your own via online learning or in a more structured classroom setting.  Do it in baby steps if you have no applied math background.  Start with basic statistics 101 and move on to more advanced.
Thanks. I have broad experience in the lending and data analysis. But I've started to learn python and may be moving into a role that is for an auto lender.  Should be fun if it happens

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club loan default prediction model question
« on: February 16, 2019, 07:45:38 AM »
Thanks for all of the replies.  I should have shared a little about myself and my methods.  I have experience building predictive credit models in financial institutions.  My primary tool of choice to build predictive models is R.  I'm very fond of the GLMNET package and my methods resemble Frank Harrells "Regression Modeling Strategies".

Very good. Thanks for the tip on the book.
Please share a bit more of your experience if you will. It would be so interesting so see how things are now.
Claim "secret sauce" where appropriate.

1) Is LC offering enough loans that meet your criteria for you to be able to stay fully invested? Would it be too much to ask that $ amount?
2) Presumably you are using the API to access new loans at the four "feeding times". Is there still a race? Do you consider speed important?
3) What's the Term and Grade allocation of your portfolio 36(%A, %B, ...) and 60(%A, %B, ...) where %x is a percent of the total $ principal invested?


My modeling method is using a Cox Prop Hazard multivariate survival model tuned with GLMNET.  Nothing really special.  I've never put a survival model in production and wanted to give it a go.  I've worked in auto finance for the last 7 years and have done applied math and data analysis for most of my career.  I've built credit scoring models for large lenders.  It is actually quite fun in my opinion.

1) to be honest I do it as a hobby.  I've only invested a few thousand in the last couple of years.  I'm doing it to keep my chops up and it interests me.
2) yes I'm using the API.  I don't invest enough frequency to see if speed is important
3) 36: B 10%, C 33%, D 17%, E 14%     60: B 2%, C 11%, D 4%, E 5%, F/G 2%
Are there any resources you'd recommend for someone starting in auto finance and predictive modeling?

My point was that if you find a large consumer lender who is publicly traded, you can hedge it that way

We used to have a user Core who had 100% returns on Folio doing trading.  But his strategy was at capacity with 20k or something.

If you want to hedge, just find another large consumer lender.

Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: January 04, 2019, 08:27:21 PM »
The predictability of your curve is a nice feature of this asset class.

General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: How to compare p2p investments
« on: December 18, 2018, 09:28:03 PM »
I think these are bots talking to each other

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