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Messages - dontvote

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1
I'm psyched. Those fields were stupid anyway.

2
sorry what's the collateral again? also, what's collateral we don't truck with collateral round these parts.

3
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: Robinhood?
« on: August 11, 2014, 09:44:31 AM »
sharebuilder for all of my dollar cost averaging needs.

4
Introductions / Re: Newbie feeling late to the party?
« on: May 01, 2014, 06:53:44 PM »
+1 for better math!

5
General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Money in both worlds?
« on: May 01, 2014, 06:52:21 PM »
I have money in both and my returns are significantly higher in prosper (strangely since I use identical criteria to pick loans) but allocating capital is a super chore without all of the cool 3rd party things that invest for you at LC.

Nickelsteamroller has a link that I'm exploring but haven't implemented yet. After that I'll be indifferent probably. I'm not sure how different the pool of loans is for each service but though prosper is pretty far behind LC in 'maturity' it's still pretty good.

In the beginning I wanted loans on both platforms to reduce platform specific risk. Now LC is looking pretty stable and prosper hasn't died yet.

6
Introductions / Re: Newbie feeling late to the party?
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:25:54 PM »
$200 note size for a 100K portfolio leads to 500 notes. That's about right to hit the averages even if you're picking at random. The problem is that if your loan selection sucks, more notes won't help. If you automate you can always blame the robot.

7
Notice that the lender they bought has a nice little valuation too. 140MM for a company that originated 340MM in loans is pretty sweet.

8
Investors - P / Re: 134 Loans Available on Prosper on Easter Monday ?
« on: April 21, 2014, 09:10:15 PM »
P2P investing is a disease, not something that's wrong with you. Don't beat your self up over relapsing. Just go find your sponsor and confess and remember: one day at a time.

9
BlueVestment / Re: BlueVestment or PLS?
« on: April 16, 2014, 11:37:41 AM »
you have to install stuff for pls. I skipped it for this reason.

10
Investors - LC / Re: Peter's Tax Post
« on: April 07, 2014, 01:45:42 PM »
maybe it's "same as last year" or a that fact that it's a land mine that doesn't need to be stepped on, active or not.

11
Investors - P / Re: Prosper Returns Dropping?
« on: April 03, 2014, 12:56:30 PM »
it's interesting because my loans from this time frame outperform my lending club loans by about 5%. I guess my crappy algorithm works better with prosper's crappy underwriting. I'm multiplying negative numbers over heah!

So I was doing some research on nickel steamroller and I noticed that the 2011 and 2012 vintages are performing relatively poorly.  Any idea why?  2009 and 2010 look fine, and 2013 Q1 and Q2 look fine so far (though the 2013 needs some more seasoning).  I've seen some people say their underwriting was "worse," but what exactly does that mean?  Was Prosper too lax with making sure people were telling the truth?

I've also seen some people say interest rate by grade has been dropping.  Does anyone know of a source where interest rate by grade over time is graphed?  Obviously, I know I can go calculate it myself with the data dump, I was just wondering if someone had already done it...

12
Investing - General (not P2P) / Re: Bit Coin as an Investment?
« on: April 03, 2014, 12:53:09 PM »
this is what I thought the default was. are currencies treated differently (i.e. are not considered property like usd would be)?

Bitcoin to be treated as taxable by the IRS and will be given stocks and barter treatment:

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/morning_call/2014/03/bitcoin-is-property-irs-rules.html

Thought this may be interesting to some.

13
Investors - LC / Re: Is it really worth .25?
« on: February 07, 2014, 02:43:42 PM »
This reminds me of a quote from Albert Einstein: “Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid."

Obviously Albert's prodigious talents did not extend to aphorisms.

14
Investors - LC / Re: What's This "Best Note" Selection Business Anyway?
« on: February 07, 2014, 02:30:45 PM »
what I'm saying is true in aggregate - you have to invest in every loan to have equivalent return across grades

if you feel that you can pick loans within the range better than 'all loans' your 'skill' will have more impact among higher yielding loans.

I will tell you without asking anyone else that people who are picking loans think they are going to beat the averages. people who pick people who are picking loans think the same.

Even in aggregate, the risk/reward should never be the same across all loan grades. If you made the same amount of money investing in G5 notes as you would investing in A1, then everyone would put their money in A1 because they would prefer to not deal with defaults. The higher return is the compensation you receive for putting up with higher default rates. Some people want zero defaults, so they put all their money in low-risk grades. Likewise, some people aren't bothered by having defaults, so they put money in higher risk notes.

you're right, there is a volatility of return which is higher in the riskier notes that will give them some additional risk premia but that should be really small since we're looking at all loans in aggregate. while G loans may have a standard deviation of default rates that changes across time and that deviation will be larger than that of grade b loans I don't see why it would be a large amt.  Additionally, since a bad economy will ostensibly affect riskier notes more that should add to their return requirement (all else being equal).   I was trying to simplify to say we'll know if the models are working well if we see aggregate returns at *about* the same level. And we do outside of the lowest risk notes.

15
welp, first its a tax credit so has nothing to do with your income or other shenanigans. second to get the tax credit you have to submit the invoice from the installation company so either you file the paperwork or they do. I'll look into it in april so I can be a little more certain.

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