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Messages - GS

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1
Investors - LC / Re: Has anyone seen this
« on: May 26, 2017, 09:01:06 AM »
This is one area that has always been unclear to me, as well.  It is possible they are trying to debit then account and just not posting a memo?  I also wonder if like with a bounced check, the person trying to process may absorb a fee for failure?  Anyone know?

I think some borrows close their linked account to prevent withdrawals.  There used to be a "payment failed due to account issue" type memo, but I don't think I've see it used in a while.  Once that happens, no point in trying to debit it. 

2
Investors - LC / Re: This is new to me on collection log
« on: February 15, 2017, 03:23:51 PM »
I used to see "skip trace" all the time in collection logs, but I haven't seen it in a long time.  I looked it up awhile ago, and it means they've lost contact and are using the borrower's references, job history, etc., to try to get in contact. 

Bottom line is that I've never seen another payment come in after a skip trace.

3
Investors - LC / Re: I'm thinking of pulling the plug on this experiment
« on: February 13, 2017, 01:34:59 PM »
Yes, I know some have argued (nonattender) that perhaps the fed's stats represent a broader segment of consumers than the segment LC lends to, so maybe this isn't the best data series to use for comparison.  Perhaps.

Speak of the guy who isn't here - and he shall appear. ;)

So, yes and no - I believe I brought up that subprime auto was tanking (and that Jamie Dimon had called it, almost a year ago now) and that the fed's stats were too wide to show that signal deterioration in a such a small frequency band.  I also bitched and moaned, a bit, regarding prepayments (and thereby reinvestment risk) being very high in the lower LC grades (and SeanMCA is still probably looking for smoking gun that says "LC is refinancing these borrowers out from under you!")... and I toyed with, as well, the notion that FICO is "bad" at picking up on CC refinances that go into an installment tradeline, thereby not sufficiently dinging and/or even raising the score of a borrower who does CC->installment debtcon...  All of that aside, I think Anil then chimed in with a comment that the fed stuff has to be taken with a huge grain of salt, anyway, as it doesn't capture credit inflation (the same thing that buying a bunch of new loans will do to one's NAR) and that new credit being extended is probably making the fed stats mostly useless/overbroad, at least for picking up signal that there's any deterioration in particular sectors/segments/niches (and I think MPL is probably still at niche scale, in fed stats).

Then, maybe, the last thing I said was that LC's 6% target expectation (worded in a way that made it sound like they'd controlled a lot for "selection" and had levelled not only a mixed grade portfolio, but ANY grade portfolio down to an expected return of ~6% wasn't an encouraging sign for retails, but it was probably good for LC (you can have - and we can sell - any package over a certain minimum size and it will yield ~6% - no thoughts of "grade" necessary: "you can have the car made in any color you want as long as it's ~6% yield").

Bottom line being, I think - and I read LC's recent 8K to state this (though I may be reading it wrong?) - that ~6% is "expected return".

That's not gonna be appealing to a lot of people who have enjoyed selection/notepicking/underwriting-arb - whatever you want to call that - but it's gonna be very appealing to the majority of insty players and a (probably the majority) bunch of retails who are not 'picky' (or pick by "gut instinct" - read: "I ain't paying for nobody's vacation when I ain't had one in years - screw those guys!"  And screw *that* guy, says I).

That said, flocking to "the next big thing" and pulling out of LC where you've got a near-certainty of not losing money - versus chasing yield in any untested, johnny-come-lately real estate platform where the underwriting is not just wet behind the ears but also still in a diaper - seems to me to be a gross over-reaction and very, very bad form - and I will not feel bad at all for anyone who loses money...

You've been warned.

Going full-bore from LC into any of the new "crowd RE" stuff is like saying:  "I feel uncomfortable in this stagecoach because one of the wheels is wobbly and there are occasionally bumps.  To mitigate that, I'm getting into the brand new coach with smoother wheels - it's designed to carry nitroglycerine, sure, but the seats are nicer, and their new suspension system should make the ride a lot smoother!"

Trim tabs... go into wind-down... sell all your notes and run screaming that you're not making ~10% anymore - but don't get blown up!

I kind wonder how LC calculated that 6% ... My LC homepage still says 9.5% for my personal returns, 8% if I turn on folio sales.  My "Understanding Your Returns" page looks like I'm the Warren Buffet of peer to peer lending.  But the reality isn't so pretty.

4
Investors - LC / Re: Roth IRA with P2P Lending
« on: February 12, 2017, 07:59:58 PM »
The bad thing about transferring it month by month is that there is a service fee from the IRA custodian for each transfer.  One thing you can do to speed up the process if you want out is to try sell your notes on folio. 

Looks they charge $100 per transfer for a partial transfer and $250 for a full transfer.

https://quikforms.com/viewform/zpWO-MeLbKwAm

5
Investors - LC / Re: I'm thinking of pulling the plug on this experiment
« on: February 12, 2017, 07:48:56 PM »
Chasing return is never a recipe for success with your investment portfolio. You will always be behind the curve and chasing high fliers of today to be disappointed tomorrow. History is full of such examples. If you solely got into Lending Club because of high return, you might be better off re-evaluating your whole investment philosophy and whether you have the mindset to be an investor instead of a trend-chaser.

I got into Lending Club and Prosper from diversification perspective and for direct access to an asset class (consumer lending) that is not typically available to retail investors. Once I reached the level of exposure I wanted to this asset class in 2014, I stopped adding any new funds to the accounts. Since then I stop reinvesting and withdraw cash when account levels get too far ahead of my desired allocation.

I echo the cautious approach of rawraw when considering other alternative lending options. You need to consider, beyond returns, what is different about these other new options, what do you know about the sectors these options are involved in, and why could you do better with these newish options versus tried and true options in same sector, if any.

I've always had the mind set of a long term investor.  I don't really equate periodically examining my portfolio to determine if conditions have changed, something is underperforming, or if I Made a mistake, to "trend chasing".  But I can't ignore the returns trailing off.  We get into investing for the returns, it is a big factor.

I got in here, too, for the diversification, and because the returns were comparable to long term stock market returns, and because I thought if I stick with mostly B C notes it wouldn't tank too bad in a recession.  Now, Im not too sure.  There is big difference from starting at 9-10% to 5-6%, when the economy goes south. 

I haven't decided if I'm getting out, maybe just start scaling back .... If I were to get out, I'd probably just send the money back to my vanguard account, not do something crazy with it.

6
Investors - LC / Re: I'm thinking of pulling the plug on this experiment
« on: February 12, 2017, 10:38:10 AM »
I only have about 10% of my retirement savings in LC, but it's underperforming everything.  It is starting to feel like wasted opportunity, plus it's a lot of work.  I log on daily to list late notes, etc..  But it would take me about 4 years to wind the account down naturally ...

7
Investors - LC / I'm thinking of pulling the plug on this experiment
« on: February 11, 2017, 10:03:19 PM »
For the 4 years I've been in LC, I've recorded my Friday account value.  Today, I made a chart of the year over year percent return, and it's really trailing off.  Now below 6% over the last 52 weeks.  I attached the chart.  Anyone else chart their returns, and seeing anything similar?

8
Investors - LC / Re: How much is too much?
« on: December 11, 2016, 10:00:48 PM »
For me, it is not a dollar amount so much as it is a percentage of your portfolio.  I'd say 5-15% of your investments .... I'm currently at about 8% ... Like Fred said, diversify.

9
Investors - LC / Re: Can someone explain this to me??
« on: November 25, 2016, 11:33:46 PM »
8)
Still not seeing many of your claims.  Glad this stock worked out for you, because based on the process you've shown in this thread... Well, may not be repeatable

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

In May you told him to cover ... The stock is up nearly 100% since then ....

10
Investors - LC / Re: Why does LC limit loan term to 36 or 60 months?
« on: July 16, 2016, 03:53:13 PM »
I needed a loan recently, and looked into both LC, Discover and BofA. As a borrower, Discover was better than LC, hands down.  Discover had no origination fee, and a better interest rate.  And I'm not nor have I ever been a discover hard holder.  I think LC was 17% for me and Discover was 11%.

11
Investors - LC / Re: Retail Loan Availability
« on: June 10, 2016, 09:03:41 PM »
With all the loans not getting funded on the fractional platform, I don't blame LC for giving the whole loan program the first crack at new loans.

12
Investors - LC / Re: You have to love Wall Street
« on: June 07, 2016, 08:45:22 PM »
I liked the company private, too.  But damn, sell the company at 15  a share and buy it back for about 5 a share.  What a screw job for investors who held on to the thier IPO shares.

13
Investors - LC / Re: Is LendingClub Broken?
« on: June 05, 2016, 05:06:13 PM »
Could be in a downward spiral, unfortunately.  The news of the CEO's problems spooked investors, with less investors, the loan numbers must drop, less loans will mean the stock price drops, and the stock price drop will spook the investors, repeat ...

The primary thing LC needs to do is reassure investors, and a BRV seems like a good start.

14
Investors - P / Re: payment reversed 2+ months later?
« on: May 29, 2016, 10:11:47 AM »
Well damn, their ACH authorization does say the borrower can terminate the agreement up until 3 days before the transfer. 

15
Investors - P / Re: payment reversed 2+ months later?
« on: May 28, 2016, 06:32:24 PM »
You'd think the borrowers would have signed something saying they authorize ACH transfers and will not dispute or inactivate ACH transfers for their linked account.

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