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Messages - Fred

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1
Investors - LC / Re: a view of LC's deteriorating investor returns
« on: March 20, 2017, 02:21:47 AM »
Here's what I'm doing. 

I withdrew all my capital in 2016.  Now my mission is to withdraw cash to reimburse myself for taxes I've paid for prior years through the end of '16.  Add $500 for lost cash equivalent interest, and I'll be even except for '17 and thereafter taxes.  Meanwhile, I am still also reinvesting in new notes if there doesn't seem to be any reason not to.  Philosophy:  I want a return of my money while it's still there to grab back.  Am parking it in short term treasuries and credit union money market.

Looks like the LC Party is over for many people -- including me. 

Time to go home, get some sleep, and find a new "game" tomorrow.

If I am not restricted by my employer to do short-term trading, I may go back to options again.  However, I may have to accept investing in ETFs for a foreseeable future.

2
General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: OCC FinTech Charter
« on: December 03, 2016, 02:39:13 AM »
The requirements are quite high though:

Quote
Companies that seek a charter are evaluated to ensure they have a reasonable chance of success, appropriate risk management, effective consumer protection, and strong capital and liquidity.

I'd say in RL's debacle, LC failed on the second one -- appropriate risk management.

3
Foliofn - LC / Re: stale incorrect data in notes-ext.csv file
« on: November 30, 2016, 02:48:28 AM »
If you look on the web page for this note, which my software cannot do of course, ....

Have you tried calling https://www.lendingclub.com/fusionCharts/chart?  This should give you the FICO points in the chart:

  <trendLines>
    <line alpha="30" color="666666" displayvalue="499-" startValue="57.0"/>
    <line alpha="30" color="666666" displayvalue="520-524" startValue="152.0"/>
    ...
    <line alpha="30" color="666666" displayvalue="820-824" startValue="1292.0"/>
    <line alpha="30" color="666666" displayvalue="845-850" startValue="1387.0"/>
  </trendLines>
  <categories>
    <category label="04/13"/>
    <category label="05/13"/>
    ...
    <category label="10/16"/>
    <category label="11/16"/>
  </categories>

4
General Prosper Discussion / Prosper CEO leaving the online lending company
« on: November 19, 2016, 12:45:10 PM »
Not sure if this has been published here or not, but here it is:


Prosper CEO leaving the online lending company
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/prosper-ceo-leaving-the-online-lending-company-2016-11-14


Online lender Prosper Marketplace Inc. said Monday that Chief Executive Aaron Vermut is leaving the company at the end of November.

David Kimball, Prosperís finance chief, will take over as CEO on Dec. 1, the company said.

5
Investors - LC / Re: LC prepayments rising
« on: November 17, 2016, 12:50:47 AM »
Very interesting! I was wondering if it was a quirk in the data

No quirk in the data.

If I have to guess, the LC "risk officers" were probably (unconsciously) bringing their prepayment mindset from the mortgage world (PSA Model), where it is assumed that prepayment at month 0 is 0 -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSA_prepayment_model.

6
Just stumbled on this link earlier today.  Anyone has more details?



7
Foliofn - LC / Re: One of your notes cannot be sold. Note ID: 54785846.
« on: November 07, 2016, 06:10:51 PM »
They removed the bogus note ID from the message.  Now it says "There has been an error."


Seems the issue is on multiple places (in LC source code).  One developer/team might have fixed his, but others have still not finished yet.

8
Unfortunately, during my period of unemployment, I lost my government-issued identification ....

You cannot get a replacement for this ID?

Now that I no longer have a daily income -- and lack the ID and bank account required by most institutions -- the stress of trying to supply myself with daily groceries has driven me to attempt to acquire a loan online.

Let me know your LC Loan ID, perhaps I can manually invest in your application.

9
Foliofn - LC / Re: One of your notes cannot be sold. Note ID: 54785846.
« on: November 06, 2016, 11:41:12 PM »
I downloaded the full Folio note inventory (https://resources.lendingclub.com/SecondaryMarketAllNotes.csv) and I did not find note_id 54785846.

Seems your note is somehow not in the inventory (e.g., charged-off, paid-off)?

The closest note_id I found was 54785845: 
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=23835508&order_id=33564260&note_id=54785845



10
Investors - LC / Re: LC FICO vs Loan Grade
« on: November 01, 2016, 09:35:02 AM »


Perhaps it would be better if the Y-axis is % rather than $ (i.e., for each grade, show % of population of loans having the FICO score in x-axis -- the area under the curve for each grade should sum to 100%)?

11
Investors - LC / Re: LC FICO vs Loan Grade
« on: November 01, 2016, 03:44:20 AM »
For the secondary market, IMO, loan "Status" is a more significant measure of risk than FICO score or trend.

12
Investors - LC / Re: LC FICO vs Loan Grade
« on: November 01, 2016, 03:39:11 AM »
From the pmthistall.csv file I extracted all vintage 2013 Q1, grade D term 36 month loans. All are fully matured now (either Fully paid or Charged off). Bottom line was that I could find no value for N that resulted in improved profitability.

How did you measure "profitability" from pmthistall.csv file?

13
Investors - LC / Re: LC FICO vs Loan Grade
« on: November 01, 2016, 03:32:11 AM »
Suppose Joe's score was 750 when he took out the loan.  Now, a year or two later, his FICO score drops by say 50 points, and suddenly you think you need more interest?  Maybe you do.

Yes, I do.

I compare FICO score of a borrower to credit agency's (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) rating of a company.   When, say, Moody's downgrades the rating of a company, the company's existing bond price decreases, causing the yield to go up, thus "more interest."


14
Suggestions / Re: lendacademy web server problems
« on: November 01, 2016, 03:12:51 AM »
Hi all, just an update from our end. Our hosting provider isn't being very helpful resolving this issue so we are going to move to another hosting provider that is optimized for our current forum software.

Do you mind sharing who is the current and next hosting provider?  Current=Linode?  Next=ASmallOrange?

15
Foliofn - LC / Re: how often is folio inventory CSV file updated?
« on: October 26, 2016, 11:16:25 PM »
Can't you just join the Payment History file with LoanStats to get the time series for FICO scores?

Doesn't necessarily catch most recent FICO change except at the monthly posting, but should help build the FICO trend.

LoanStats only has 1 record per loan, no history.

Payment History contains LastFICOBand by month, but the file is not updated daily,

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