Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Rob L

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 142
1
Investors - LC / Re: Review of my lending club account
« on: September 19, 2020, 11:26:01 AM »
There's no correlation between my well earned low opinion of LC and my desire for you or anyone else to do very well with investments there. These are two separate things. I wish nothing but the best for you and apologize if you were offended. It was not my intent. None of my comments were directed towards you or your investment methodology. My posts were only information for your and others consideration to be dealt with as desired. I enjoy reading your reporting. Since I left LC it's about the only information I see regarding how things are going there.

2
Investors - LC / Re: Review of my lending club account
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:55:26 AM »
Couple of years ago, I had the same thought that LC will court retail investors when institutions bail and retail investors will come back when they can't find another attractive alternative (fixed income not generating anything, equity market very volatile).

But, I think retail investor wagon will not arrive at the LC station. Neither LC has any interest in bringing them back, they seem to be focused on getting retail funds through other indirect means such as banking, Nor retail investors are interested in tying up funds for 3-5 years without a way to redeem early.

But as you said, we will see.

Very true but I miss your point. Once again the Fed has instituted "Zero Interest Rate Policy". The incentives to reach for yield by investors is possibly greater now than ever. That would argue for more rather than fewer LC investor accounts. At any rate the current chart obviously shows the exodus started much longer ago than 9 months and the retail investor base had essentially vanished by then; like smoke in the wind. Lately though I've actually been thinking LC should see an uptick in new retail investors chasing yield. There are very few fixed income alternatives that have a positive real rate of return. We'll see :)

Both your reasons seem quite true. Without the existence of Folio and the liquidity it provided if needed I'm not sure I'd have invested in LC notes in the first place. That was always a very big deal to me. The day Prosper dropped Folio was the day I dropped Prosper. Never bought a single Prosper note after that announcement. When I exited LC I used Folio in a substantial way and worried the entire time it could be lost at a moments notice; particularly after it was bought by Goldman.

3
Investors - LC / Re: Review of my lending club account
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:43:38 AM »
Quote
The current chart shows the mass exodus of retail investors. Almost no accounts less than 9 months old.
For perspective a comparison from around 5 years ago. A very different picture.

I think it would be hard to compare the last 9 months to any other time period.

Very true but I miss your point. Once again the Fed has instituted "Zero Interest Rate Policy". The incentives to reach for yield by investors is possibly greater now than ever. That would argue for more rather than fewer LC investor accounts. At any rate the current chart obviously shows the exodus started much longer ago than 9 months and the retail investor base had essentially vanished by then; like smoke in the wind. Lately though I've actually been thinking LC should see an uptick in new retail investors chasing yield. There are very few fixed income alternatives that have a positive real rate of return. We'll see :)


4
Investors - LC / Re: Review of my lending club account
« on: September 15, 2020, 10:01:01 AM »
The current chart shows the mass exodus of retail investors. Almost no accounts less than 9 months old.
For perspective a comparison from around 5 years ago. A very different picture.



5
Interesting artcle but says what we already knew.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/08/28/capital-one-cuts-card-limits-amid-u-s-jobless-aid-impasse

Capital One cut the limit on my business card last week. Doesn't matter to me but wonder if there aren't plenty of other businesses that it would.

6
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: August 08, 2020, 07:36:27 PM »
Folio is dead.
I finished liquidating my Lending Club investment "under the wire" by 8 months using Folio sales.
I'm thankful that I got it done in time (and it was only a matter of time). Turns out it was a good time to invest in stocks.
I'm not young (70), I don't feel old, but every day is a blessing.
Didn't want to potentially leave my heirs (my trustee) with 3 years of "stuck with it" and never invested in 5 year notes for the same reason.
There no doubt are others that are similarly inclined and will offer notes for sale at significant discounts just to be out.
IMO, bargains will be offered to those with the time horizon to accept them.


7
Interesting read from the NY Fed:

Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2020/20200806

8
In an unusual moment of clarity I realized what is the subject of this thread. It's something of a follow up the the "To What Lengths Do Some Folks Go In Planning Their Income Taxes" thread from last year. In that thread I posted the spreadsheet computation for a single year's decision. The retirement planning software I'd used for many years was no help so I had to do it manually. I was asking the wrong questions of it. The fundamental problem once in retirement is to find the most tax efficient investment/conversion/spending plan given the asset mix acquired leading to retirement. Obvious, but I can be slow on the uptake sometimes.

So, there is software out there that addresses this problem.
For starters, one is widely mentioned and recommended. Its a free browser based program that seems to be an excellent place to start:
https://www.i-orp.com/Inflate/index.html

After finding this it sounded vaguely familiar. "lascott" had recommended it last year in that previous thread (paragraph c). I tried out b) but never tried this one. Duh. Guess I didn't exactly know the right question to ask anyway.
https://forum.lendacademy.com/index.php/topic,18192.msg57790.html#msg57790

Also I found but know nothing about:
https://incomestrategy.com/
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=236567

And it's more expensive version for financial advisors:
https://www.incomesolver.com/

There are dozens of similar programs out there.
Now that I think I'm asking the right question, anyone "been there, done that" with a personal favorite?

9
Off Topic / Re: Cash Parking
« on: July 07, 2020, 07:42:58 PM »
FYI on Ally checking. I was happy I helped my kid moved some money $25K to one of their CDs for 2.5% before some of these drops. Their future house downpayment.



Yeah, very well!
Just now I received this moments ago from Ally:

"Robert, we want to let you know that the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) for your Online Savings Account is changing from 1.10% APY to 1.00% APY on all balance tiers. Your new APY is effective 7/8/2020 and will show online in your account details on 7/9/2020. Remember, while savings rates fluctuate, our commitment to helping you grow your money never wavers."

Hunger Games: "May the odds be ever with you" :)


10
Off Topic / Re: Cash Parking
« on: July 02, 2020, 01:32:09 PM »
Cheap money is good and all, but there are drawbacks as well (including what we are seeing with savings rates) that I feel like no one really wants to acknowledge.

I anticipate the ride back up to normal rates + less overspending could be very painful.

There is recent evidence to support what you say. From Dec 2008 until Nov 2015 the FED implemented ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) targeting the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) at 0 to 0.25%. From Nov 2015 until Oct 2018 the FED slowly raised its FFR target to 2.25% and was letting its balance sheet contract. The FED raised the FFR one more time on Wed 12/19/2018 up to 2.50%. This was too much to bear for the US economy (at least as indicated by the stock market which dropped 25% from Oct 2018 until Christmas Eve 2018). The stock market tantrum caused the FED to stop increasing rates and stop contracting its balance sheet. 

In Jan 2019 FED chief Powell earnestly apologized for the error of his ways and by May 2019 the stock market had recovered all its losses hitting an all time high. The FFR remained at 2.5% through July 2019 then from Aug through the end of Oct 2019 it was lowered in three monthly 25 bps steps to 1.75%. This caused a terrific stock market rally of 18% to an all time high in Feb 2020. We all know what has happened since. Today the stock market is 9% above the level it was at in Oct 2019 (9 months ago) and ZIRP is once again the order of the day.

The point is that in Jan 2019 the US economy was unable to accommodate what is an anemic FFR of 2.5% after 7 years of ZIRP and three years of very slow increases. How long will we be stuck here in ZIRP again? You mentioned ride back up; will the horse ever leave the stable?


11
Off Topic / Re: Cash Parking
« on: July 01, 2020, 06:55:18 PM »
Saw this one coming a mile away:

"Dear Valued Customer,
We're writing to let you know that the Annual Percentage Yield (APY) for your Kasasa Cash Checking Account with TAB Bank is changing from 3.00% APY to 2.00% APY for balances from $0.01 to $25,000 effective 7/1/2020.

As our country continues to deal with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been major shifts in interest rates for deposit accounts. At TAB Bank, we are committed to providing the best possible rate that we can under the current circumstances."

Not any heads-up; the change is today! I've gone from $50k max deposit to $25k and from APR 4% to 3% to 2% ($166 per month to $42 per month). Don't you just love the FED's printing press? Hey, 2% on a checking account still ain't bad. If I don't make the required debit transactions of 15 in a month the APR is 0.5% so what the heck. Still it's much better than having the Wells Fargo checking account I had (0% APR) and they were charging me $14.95 per month for Quicken downloads.

I remain very pleased with the TAB website features and overall experience.




12
We have a number of credit cards we rarely if never use. Pretty much put all our CC purchases on our 2% cash back CitiBank Mastercard. This past week one was cancelled (Capital One) and the limit on the other (Chase) was lowered. Our FICO is excellent but I understand this is a sensible risk reduction on their part.

13
An update; yesterday was a particularly bad day for financial stocks.



14
Investors - LC / Re: What is the lifecycle of a "hardship" loan?
« on: June 24, 2020, 11:26:29 AM »
"Neverlate" used to be an important factor. Is it still around? If so will a loan go through hardship, then grace and come out the other end still Neverlate?

15
Yep, I got it done. Thanks for the tip.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 142