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Messages - mikedave

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Investors - LC / Re: IPO Pop - Place Your Bets
« on: December 10, 2014, 11:51:27 PM »
$19.26 on day one, $10-12 in three months, $15 in two-three years. I'll have a Guinness

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Investors - LC / Re: IPO Eve. IPO Changed to $15 a share!
« on: December 10, 2014, 11:47:38 PM »
after some consideration I decided not invest to the ratio of what I could gain to what I could lose just seems way too high.  Might live to regret this,best of luck to those that decide to invest.  To those that decide to stay I would strongly consider getting out before the lockup period is over (180 days).  Often IPOs tank once the insiders are allowed to sell.

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Investors - LC / Re: IPO Eve. IPO Changed to $15 a share!
« on: December 10, 2014, 08:31:41 PM »
Based on 2013 financials I calculate the new P/E ratio to be about 740.   This is pricing in an incredible amount of growth.  They would have to grow revenue by ~30X to hit a reasonable PE ratio so 7mil x 30= 210mil  can they do this in a reasonable time frame?  If they were to double revenue every year (something they have badly failed at this year so far) if would take 5-6years growth to make the current valuation reasonable.

Still deciding weather I should take the shares, if I do it will be looking for a quick pop, definitely getting out way before the insiders shares unlock.  This is pure gambling.




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Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club IPO DSP How many shares could we get?
« on: November 26, 2014, 07:50:23 PM »
This is depressing, if I can't get more the 100 shares this is hardly worth the effort, not to mention the inevitable transaction costs.  Would start to get interesting at 4x to 5X this number, but your logic is pretty good, this is unlikely.

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Investors - LC / Re: Borrower Deceased
« on: November 21, 2014, 12:16:00 AM »
I've sold borrowed deceased notes, not sure if it still works.  I'd try to dump it if i were you.

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Investors - LC / Re: "Own" & N/A
« on: November 02, 2014, 10:32:18 AM »
OWNing your own home could mean that grandpa let you have the old trailer on the back of his property you are currently living in with your girlfreind and seven kids.

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Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club IPO for retail investors
« on: October 21, 2014, 01:11:36 PM »
I will probably invest, depending on the terms

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Investors - LC / 1 in 3 U.S. adults have 'debt in collections
« on: July 29, 2014, 08:03:34 AM »
http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/29/pf/debt-collections/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_business

I had no idea it was anywhere near this high.  I assume people with debt in collections would have credit ratings too low to get loans from LC, is this true?

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Investors - LC / Re: Auto Selling on Folio
« on: July 14, 2014, 01:48:00 PM »
IR has worked pretty well for me.  My only beef with it has been on the couple occasions it has gone down I was not informed and basically didn't learn about it until I saw I had no or very few notes for sale.

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Investors - LC / Re: Selling Crashing FICO Notes
« on: July 12, 2014, 12:15:57 PM »
I can't seem to sell these notes lately even at big discounts.

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Investors - LC / Re: wave of grace notes
« on: May 25, 2014, 07:51:44 PM »
These things do seem to come in waves.  If you have ever worked in retail you've see the same effect. Nothing... nothing ... nothing... 20 customers all at once.  I'm sure there are some deep statistical theory to explain it.  I try not to read too much into the bad patches, or the good ones either for that matter, but human nature looks for patterns where there aren't necessarily any.

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Investors - LC / Re: wave of grace notes
« on: May 19, 2014, 01:28:37 PM »
Actually I can't complaint too much.  This wave of grace notes amounted to 1% of my portfolio and doubled my loss rate to about 2%.  At an average age of my portfolio of 8months I expect about 1/2 the risk is done from what I've read so I am on track for ~4% default rate overall which is about what I expected according to IR's stats.

Folio sales have been great, it has been a sellers market for the past month or two for sure. I have more than made up the loss to defaults with the little trading I do.   For the last week or so though it has really slowed down I've hardly sold anything.

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That person is probably just selling his late notes

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Investors - LC / wave of grace notes
« on: May 11, 2014, 10:46:56 PM »
I got about 10 grace notes this weekend, is it just my bad luck or is LC slow to process payments or something?

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Interest Radar / Re: Auto-sell and Inventory Management not working
« on: May 08, 2014, 01:13:31 PM »
hey it is back.. mine is working now also

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