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Messages - Fred93

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Off Topic / Re: Google Finance Redesign Sucks
« on: Today at 05:04:05 PM »
The new version is horrible.  I've been very frustrated by this change.

They really dumbed it down.  This is happening to many web sites, as they compete for the smartphone user, who has a tiny screen, so can't see much.

I used to use yahoo finance, until yahoo ruined that site.  Now it takes forever to fire up, because videos load and start playing, and they download the whole database of stock symbols when the page fires up so they can guide you as you type.  (Google does this thru the network!) 

So I've been using google finance every day for the past few months, and now suddenly it is worthless.  Not only the problems you cite, but also they've ruined the charts.  They draw a curve no matter what the volume is.  If you're looking at a thinly traded stock, you want to see those disjoint lines, so you can see that it is thinly traded.  Now they just draw a curve, whether it means anything or not.  No option for OHLC bar chart. 

Foliofn - LC / Re: Folio API note selling
« on: March 11, 2018, 06:04:49 AM »
It is almost impossible to "engage" LC's real software people these days.  You get answers from intermediaries who don't really know, and don't really concentrate on the question, so you get a lot of muddled and quite frankly wrong answers.

I use the new buy function, but I've never switched to the new sell function, so I don't know the answer.

Investors - LC / Re: What percent of IGP notes will default?
« on: March 06, 2018, 08:38:17 PM »
Go to this page...
Click on the "loan statistics" tab.
Scroll to the bottom of the page.

There you will find a chart "loan status migration" which shows you the statistics for chargeoffs of loans that enter certain statuses. 

It says that net 30% of in-grace-period loans charge off.

There's also a link below the chart which gives you more detailed information.

I would guess that the number would be higher for EFG loans, but that is a guess.  I have no evidence.  Further it is almost impossible to get evidence, because the IGP status is not encoded into the historica loan payments file that Lendingclub makes public.  For other statuses, such as 30-days-late, one can use Lendingclub's numbers from the chart, or calculate your own numbers from the loan payments file.  Not so for IGP.

Foliofn - LC / Re: Trouble with /foliofn/notesRawData.action
« on: February 17, 2018, 03:12:32 PM »
Yeah. they have the new documentation on the site now.

Wow.  They really prettied it up since the version they gave me a year ago.  Looks like only very minor text changes, not counting the new and exciting legalistic footnotes.  Mostly formatting.

Sadly to say that the new api does not work.... at least for me. It gives me the dreaded "Internal server error"   ;D

Unfortunately it is a common characteristic of these web APIs that they won't talk with you at all until you get about 20 things exactly right.

I can assure you that once you find the detail you have wrong, you will get past "internal server error".

Investors - LC / Re: Ridiculous number of defaults, anyone else?
« on: February 15, 2018, 10:33:02 PM »
What grades did you invest in?

What is the average age of your portfolio?

A,B, and C.  I don't see anywhere that tells me what the average age of my portfolio

On the main summary page, just to the left of your ANAR number, make sure you've selected "primary notes".  Now click on the words "understanding your returns".  This will take you to a page with a chart showing everyone's returns, broken out by portfolio age.  Your account will be shown as a large dot.  You can see how you stack up vs other folks with similar age portfolios.  To the left of the chart it shows you the average age of the loans in your portfolio. 

If you had all 3-year loans, and they all ran for the entire 3 years, and you had this portfolio long enough so that you have a mix of loans of different ages, they would average out to 18 months.  Most porfolios are mix of 3 and 5 year loans, and lots of loans pay off early, so 15-20 months is the typical age of loans in a mature portfolio.

Portfoios with small # of loans experience significantly varied returns just because of the luck of the draw.  Its like flipping pennies.  Even tho you know the probability of heads should be 50%, you can flip 10 times and get only 3 heads, and that isn't strange.  Its just what happens with a small number of flips.

In statistical lingo, the performance of your portfolio is a SAMPLE of the performance of the strategy you are following.  With such a small portfolio (75 loans) you may well be following a strategy that will produce 4.5% returns, but your sample right now is returning 2%.

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 09:09:26 PM »
Those are the scoring values we've correlated to account performance.

Its nice that you say that, but it doesn't mean anything unless you are more specific.   Show us some correlation.  Show us something.

I am willing to share as much as I can, and I think I've shown that especially within this thread.

No, you've shown us that you're willing to share nothing, explain nothing, never speak in quantitative terms, etc.

How about something quantitative.

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 14, 2018, 02:24:41 PM »
Ok.  Decided to try it.  Took forever to calculate.  I get 49.7/82.  I have no idea what that means.  The rest of the web site is just lists of notes?  I don't get it.

I don't want to speak for LC picks but it is my understand that the closer you are to 66/82 (or higher) the better off your account is.

Reminds me of the old TV show "The Prisoner".  I'm sure I'm quoting badly, but the intro goes something like this...
Prisoner: Who is number one?
Detached voice: You are number six.
Prisoner: I'm a man, not a number!

49.7 and 66  are "just numbers".  Ok, so my choices rate lower than he things is "good" based on some mysterious criteria which we know absolutely nothing about.  So...?  Unless we know something about this mysterious rating system, then those numbers have no meaning. 

Foliofn - LC / Re: Trouble with /foliofn/notesRawData.action
« on: February 14, 2018, 04:14:25 AM »
It is typical that when you speak with LC the front line folks don't know anything about your question.

Good to see you made it thru the maze.  Sorry to see another competitor tho.  The secondary market is damned competitive. 

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 13, 2018, 10:48:49 PM »
Ok.  Decided to try it.  Took forever to calculate.  I get 49.7/82.  I have no idea what that means.  The rest of the web site is just lists of notes?  I don't get it.

Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Portfolio Score
« on: February 13, 2018, 04:52:08 PM »
So have a few of you created accounts and handed this guy your account key?  Tell me your experience... ie nothing bad happened?  You think he's safe?

Foliofn - LC / Re: Trouble with /foliofn/notesRawData.action
« on: February 13, 2018, 04:48:03 PM »
Fred93, maybe we're missing something. I have the Word document 'Lending Club Secondary Market APIs Documentation.docx'. The Word properties say it was last modified 1/12/2018. Section 1 is the 'Listings' API, partially copied below. But it doesn't return the Order ID, so we don't see the value. (Sounds like you've gotten it to work though  ;))

Wow.  Are you sure it's 2018?  I have a doc with last mod 1/12/2017 by Dhanya Moni, and one with 5/4/2017.  I think the later document just corrects some typos.  Same title as you wrote above.  Both of these documents contain the new buy & sell API endpoints which don't require the order ID.

Just to be super clear here... Are you saying that the doc dated 1/12/something that they sent you does not contain the new buy & sell API endpoints?

PS: When this was new, I tried and tried over and over to get them to return the "loan ID" and "order ID" in the listings endpoint, but was unsuccessful.  Wasn't even any conversation.  It was as if somebody snuck in a few minutes to wedge in a couple of new endpoints and was immediately assigned to other things and couldn't take time to consider anything.  My logic was that one needs to be able to get information about the LOAN, and the only way to do that is to have the loan ID.  If you want to access the note web page, for example, you need the triple: note ID, loan ID, order ID.  I think this was done way back when as some sort of wacko pseudo-security feature.  It's mostly a pain in the ass.

Foliofn - LC / Re: Trouble with /foliofn/notesRawData.action
« on: February 13, 2018, 04:05:07 AM »
They updated the folio API a year ago, but have never posted the update to the web site.

Ask them to post the updated API doc from a year ago.

Maybe you could do some real research, and give us facts instead of platitudes. 

For example, I just don't buy the idea that "many" employers check credit history.  If this is true, please name them, or give us a reference to a source with some credibility and some numbers, eh?  Without some backup, I say either you made this up, or the guy who wrote the article you copied from made it up.

By the way, historically, about 10% of Lendingclub loans have defaulted.

Investors - LC / Re: Cumulative ROI by Vintage Beginning 14Q1
« on: February 03, 2018, 12:27:24 PM »
I often see that 30 day delinquency and 60 day delinquency both show me what looks like a trend, but going in opposite directions!  Extrapolation from either of these in the early months is just very noisy.

Investors - LC / Re: Ridiculous number of defaults, anyone else?
« on: February 02, 2018, 05:13:52 PM »
What grades did you invest in?

What is the average age of your portfolio?

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