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Messages - HalfABubbleOff

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Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: July 27, 2019, 03:04:35 PM »
Last two years interest hasn't covered write-offs and YTD same has held true, but did have a couple of months in the black this year.
I'm down to 89 issued/current notes, but with run out, it'll be another two years before I'm done. 
I can't totally complain, I've withdrawn more cash than I've put in now. 
My combined return is 5.41% (I've bought/sold notes on folio, so it's the closest to a real return number I have). 
In looking at the stats page, I guess I should be thankful for where I'm at with the 5.41% return.  I'm just going to chalk it up to putting in a lot of good filters to find the few notes here or there that hadn't been gobbled up in 3 nanoseconds of being listed.  Sticking with those filters when nothing good showed up.  And then turning off the spigot once the bad news started flowing out of LC. 
My weighted average interest rate is 15.85%, mostly 39% C's, 32% D's, and 21% E's.
Weighted average age of portfolio is now 49.1 months.

Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: October 14, 2017, 02:44:57 PM »
Yep, I am negative for the year now.
I'm not there yet, but it wouldn't take much.  YTD for me only $0.28 of every interest dollar of mine is making it to the total line after charge offs, and if I have one more month like August I will around $0.00 of every interest dollar. 

It's been frustrating to see a loan with the purpose of "credit card payoff" and see the amount requested far in excess of the revolving balance (example below):
Just who's getting the extra 8k?

I understand your line of thinking, however...  Every revolving loan is not reported to every credit reporting agency.  Therefore, there may well be loans which don't show up on the particular credit report that LC pulls.  There is therefore no certainty to this sort of calculation.

On the other hand, you are free to choose which loans to invest in, and some investors do use the criteria of loan amount matching up with revolving balance shown. 

As long as you are free to choose, why is this "frustrating"?
It would be nice to see loans with purposes such as payoff credit card & consolidate debt go directly to the debt holders from LC without stopping in the borrower's checking account first.  So, it is better known that the money being lent is going for the stated purpose instead of a hope and a prayer that it is being used as intended. 

According to the average returns showed by LC, there is a delta between the interest rate for the borrower and the actual return.  Wide Delta.  Instead of receiving 17% on D's, we get 8%.  Half the return is lost to defaults.  What if you could marketplace consumer loans, but in this case, compel the borrower to provide proof ownership of a vehicle, home ownership, or partial ownership.  If you look at the detailed borrower stats, they show if they own home (Own) or mortgage (partially own).  This may work because at the outset of the loan, everything thinks it will work; the borrower is not thinking about defaulting so it may not seem significant to use his assets as collateral (because he doe snot think they will beneeded to repay the principal anyhow).  But now, consider, that many of the marketplace loans are backed either fully or partially by these assets.  A $3.5K loan request can be backed by a $7K used car.  A $40K loan for a large purchase may be backed by a mortgage in which he's bough 50% of 400K house. 

Could such a model improve yields?  The overall interest rate would have to be lower (but perhaps not by much).  But most importantly, the Surrender $ from Default will go down.  I mean look at how ominous the numbers look like the MINUTE a loan payment is late.  That won't be the same if we knew there's real collateral.  One may ask- well if they have a car and wanted to consolidate debt, why wouldn't they just sell the car if it was that important.  But that's not how debtos think.  They are optimists assuming both. 

I think it might be interesting for a closer look.

Something along the same line of thinking... for the "debt consolidation" loans, it would be nice to see that the borrower has listed who exactly is going to get a check and for how much.  As well, that check goes directly from LC to that debt holder, without passing through the borrower's bank account.  It's been frustrating to see a loan with the purpose of "credit card payoff" and see the amount requested far in excess of the revolving balance (example below):
Just who's getting the extra 8k?

Investors - LC / Re: Madden case update
« on: July 01, 2016, 08:48:47 PM »
It is not a surprise that cert wasn't granted.  The U.S. Solicitor General both blasted the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals ruling, but also said that the district court has not yet ruled if Delaware laws apply in this case or not. 

So, it was "too early" for this case to make its way to be heard by the USSC.  The possible twists and turns in this case means it's going to be around for at least a few years. 

Investors - LC / Re: Does Anyone own Notes from these Loans?
« on: July 01, 2016, 08:34:09 PM »
Sorry do not have any of those.

Would it be appropriate to say "go fish" now?   :)

"TheStreet's Jim Cramer says beleaguered LendingClub (LC)  is too risky and that investors should stay away from the stock.

"Lending Club is a company that we have disliked," Cramer, TheStreet's founder and manager of the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio said in an interview at the New York Stock Exchange."
and... "Cramer says the company has "accounting irregularities," that concern him, which would prompt him to sell the stock.
But it's not just because of LendingClub's recent problems. Cramer says he doesn't like alternative lending because he thinks "lending is harder than people realize."

However, last year... in April, Cramer had "answers to his questions".
"Cramer said he was skeptical of LendingClub when it came public but now has answers to his questions. The stock has fallen to more attractive levels from its initial public offering price." 

Investors - LC / Re: How worried are you about LC future?
« on: May 19, 2016, 02:03:39 AM »
Not worried about LC's future. 
1) They receive a small amount of cash from every payment to service the loan, so regardless if they do not issue a single new loan there is at least some positive cash flow from recurring payments.
2) New notes can only be funded if they reach the 60% threshold (or whatever percentage it is now).  LC could, in theory drop that % down to get more loans funded albeit at lower total origination fee.
3) LC apparently has already extended the amount of time for new loans to get funded, and if they haven't then they should.
4) The debt they currently have is only related to the loans they have provided and are backed up by the investors.
5) They have access to large sums of cash at this point.
6) Other lenders could swoop in and make a target of LC for takeover attempts.  The customer list is worth money alone, the loan servicing is worth money, there are cash flow streams even if the loan origination comes to a temporary or long term halt.
7) The SEC and NY subpoenas are troubling, but also expected, I doubt they'll find much, but never know. 

Investors - LC / Re: Lots of notes not issuing
« on: July 01, 2015, 04:01:26 PM »
Yesterday 0 of 25 Not Yet Issued notes were issuing.
Today 9 of 25 are now in "Issuing" status.

Investors - LC / Re: Loan posted more than 1.5 days after submitted
« on: June 29, 2015, 10:36:02 AM »
Just a WAG on my part, but the market is saturatated with notes right now and any new notes would further dilute the money available among even more notes and risk even more notes either not funding or only partially funding.

Investors - LC / Re: Lot of loans but not quality loans
« on: June 26, 2015, 09:23:57 PM »
Okay, in the 8 months since I started investing in LC, and learned a few expensive lessons, I tightened up the criteria to narrow the selection of notes that I would invest in.  For the past several months, usually a few make it past the filtering criteria.  I've never seen this same set of critera filter in dozens of notes before.  So, yes, if more notes are being poured in on the top, I should expect more to make it through. 

However, this is all very sudden.  The data geek in me is asking, why all of a sudden am I going from a handful of notes to just under 100 notes.  The data geek in me is wondering if this is in error, that the data we are being provided with and the filtering criteria is this accurate?  Is LC being flooded with a number of stolen identities?  Is this like the flood of notes a while back that were pulled back?  What is driving this huge increase in loans becoming available?

I know we don't know the answers, but when something changes significantly, it's time to question what changed?  I mean, I don't mind having a bigger selection, but what is driving so many notes becoming available all of a sudden? 

Investors - LC / Re: Lot of loans but not quality loans
« on: June 26, 2015, 09:49:02 AM »
I've been wondering about the quantity of notes lately.

I'm a very small investor in this, my account is just over $5k.  So I'm very picky and have my criteria set tightly.  There have been some days where I have 0 loans to pick from, but usually 2-5 loans are available, and maybe as many as 8, but only right after the routine release of new notes.

However, the past few days there've been a ton of new notes to pick from.  Using the same filtering criteria, and removing the "notes already invested in" selection, there are now 89 notes that "meet" the same criteria that usually generate only a handful of notes.

I do recall there was a problem a while ago where notes were accidentally issued to the fractional market and LC pulled them back a few weeks later, I hope that this same mistake wasn't made again.

Also, when I run a 2nd filter, with slight different criteria, but if the loan is approved, usually there are even fewer notes available, usually 0, but occasionaly 1 or 2.  Now there are 42 notes, and they are "approved". 

Investors - LC / Charge off or sell off?
« on: February 24, 2015, 02:36:02 PM »
Hi Folks,

I'm a relatively new investor in P2P lending.  So, while I have tried to research this question, I can't seem to find any good info on what the advantages and disadvantages are of retaining a note bound to be charged off as compared to selling the note on folio for a deep discount and taking the loss that way.  About all I can find says, if you sell it off you won't have to worry about future recoveries and can take the whole loss against your gains that year.  My account is not an IRA so there are tax implications. 

Any good links or advice that you've run into on the pros/cons of either?

At the moment, I've one note that "straight rolled" from issue to now 90+ days delinquent, and the borrower's credit score is dropping like a rock.  I've another note that recently went into Chapter 13, so there's nothing I can do about that one.  And a few others just rolled into the 30+ days bucket. 

I am diversified with $25/note investments, with a few exceptions from folio purchases, so these bad apples are not spoiling the whole bunch.  Just trying to figure out what the lessor of two evils are at this point, either way it's a stinky diaper. 

Thanks in advance!

Investors - LC / Re: Longest credit history ?
« on: January 28, 2015, 06:08:13 PM »
I would say no because here a slightly longer one:

However, the borrower for this loan is no longer on the green side of the grass.

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