Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - fliphusker

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 31
1
Investors - LC / Re: Anyone selling Florida loans?
« on: September 13, 2017, 08:06:02 PM »
Figured I would pop in as have not been here for awhile.
With Florida being one of the sand states, like you, I never had a single loan from there. And you are correct if I remember my backtesting correctly that they have a higher default rate.
I'm fairly certain I've excluded FL in general, I believe it was mentioned a couple years ago, that FL as state had a higher than average default rate. I don't recall.

Yep, just have 10 active loans in FL, origination dating back to 2015.

2
Investors - LC / Re: Selling Houston loans
« on: September 03, 2017, 02:12:32 AM »
I have a ton of Tex loans. Did not even think. Yup, I am below average investor. :(

3
Investors - LC / Re: Winding down my account
« on: August 21, 2017, 11:10:42 AM »
Thanks, Dr. Everett! I will still do some lurking around. I am not reinvesting but not going to take losses selling either. I do not think I have bought more than 10 notes off of FOLIO that was at a markup. Doubt I will sell any notes under 1% either and just take my chances. Most of my FOLIO notes will fully mature in less than 15 so not overly concerned there.
Have had some limited success selling 5-7% markup. I do plan on expanding that this month and going down to 3% and see what sells. I am just in no hurry.
I am planning on calling LC and inquire about them not contacting some of my late notes and see why that is not happening. Do not quite get that they will call an IGP 3x per day but I have notes that are 30 days late that only emails have been sent.
I assume that if a note is priced at let's say 5% for 1 day and does not sell odds are it is not going to sell the 2nd day?

4
Investors - LC / Re: Winding down my account
« on: August 18, 2017, 06:28:42 PM »
I need to dig through here and look up your secret sauce recipes for selling notes. :)

5
Investors - LC / Winding down my account
« on: August 17, 2017, 05:11:24 PM »
First off I would like to thank so many people here as I start to wind down my account. Rob, Fred, Anil Dr. Everett, Rawraw and Nonattender. (Sorry I have no doubt I am forgetting others. Each of you guys has taught me and many others so much about LC. You guys did not have to take time out of your lives to help nubs like me who get into LC with a severe lack of knowledge, but you do and do not lose your marbles doing so.

Why am I winding down my account? Pretty easy.
I have been battling with LC since January about notes where the FICO scores are missing data. These notes are unable to be sold directly on FOLIO. These notes appear on NSR as 499 FICO and will not sell. Even though I have no real idea what their FICO is. LC is in no hurry to fix this. What else in the future will they not fix? Not going to find out.
I am actually fine with my returns, for the most part. Some of my risky FOLIO stuff did not pan out, but I am OK with that. I did not go into this with blinders on. I knew the risk I was taking with these loans. Just running into notes that are going bad when I was on the primary market when I first started.
The BKs are starting to mount. This part I know is just part of it, but it just shows the weakness in LCs underwriting.
I have seen a noticeable shift away from contacting late borrowers. I have a number of notes that are 16-30 days late where LC has only sent them an email. I do not understand why they will contact a guy twice a day and others not at all. I dislike the uniformity to this.
As we have seen that LC has started really catering to the institutions and away from the retail investors, I think the service they provide us has slipped as well.

Am I being a bit nit-picky? Ya probably.

So again, want to thank so many here and Lend Academy for their great tutorials and articles and for the forum. I will continue to lurk around here. Maybe in the future I will come back and start reinvesting in LC, just not now.

:)

6
LendingRobot / Re: LendingRobot and NSR Invest join forces
« on: August 16, 2017, 04:44:06 PM »
Why are they on a desert island and how did they get there? Where is this ship? Working on my humor today. :P
Survival of the fittest. reminds me of 2 lions and only 1 meal on a dessert island. Lets join forces and go down with ship.

7
Investors - LC / Re: Another unhappy surprise with Automated Investing
« on: August 11, 2017, 01:54:31 PM »
Did something very similar when I first started. ($1,800) I did not know I could ask for my money back. Was too embarrassed to ask here at the time too.
Others will probably know this better but assume that length of time is a disclaimer and it will be very quick.
Good luck and hope you get a refund quickly.

8
Investors - LC / Re: Best way to measure true return?
« on: August 10, 2017, 12:31:14 PM »
Does anyone use Google docs to calc XIRR? If so can you give me a quick tutorial?

9
LendingRobot / Re: LendingRobot and NSR Invest join forces
« on: August 10, 2017, 12:26:23 PM »
Have you ever chatted with NSR? I am going to assume not. I generally get a response from them on their chat within hours, if not immediately. Did BETA testing with them and they are great to deal with. Every one of my questions and concerns has been replied to.
As an NSR user, I am excited to see what changes. That is, if I remain investing in the FOLIO market.
"•Access to our dedicated client service team"  ?!  Yeah.  Uh-huh.  Not so much.

10
I still will never understand this narrative. What is a good note? What makes a bad note? Your interpretation will most likely not be the same as another's.
If they are bad, why would anyone invest in them? Because there is nothing else to invest in?

11
Investors - LC / Re: Strategy of buying grace period notes
« on: August 06, 2017, 04:56:17 PM »
The other thing to keep in mind is if the note starts going 16 days. LC very well might not only take your interest but principle too due to fees. I am sitting on a note that I have tried selling that is 30 days late for the past 3 months and has three months left on it. $0.15 fee kills the $0.05 I get in interest.
I would be really interested in reading how those guys who buy the loans at 90% discount fair that the notes in absolutely going to default. I get it that they are grabbing some collection fees and the occasional note that starts paying. I guess it must work for them otherwise there would not be a market right?

12
Investors - LC / Re: Strategy of buying notes 1/2 way during their term
« on: August 06, 2017, 04:46:27 PM »
I ran a strategy for a number of months with something similar to you Emily. Was a high-risk high reward strategy where I really did not care about the FICO score as long as it was stable for 8 months. 16 YTM min and notes could not be more than $12. These notes, of course, were never late, but definitely did not stop them from going late or defaulting. :( The strategy ran well for awhile then a big rash of BKs really sucked a lot of the profits out of it.
Been going with a new strat the last four+ months that is way less risky. Only buy about 50 notes per month. So I am just small time so I can be very picky. Two notes just popped up in IGP out of the blue that has not made their first payment to me. So I am seriously contemplating my future with FOLIO. The time involved with handpicking can be frustrating. Ending up with buying multiples of the same notes from NSR is excruciatingly frustrating.
Emily what you mentioned about the FICO score not telling the whole picture in regards the FICO direction is the main reason I could never go automated in buying FOLIO.

13
Foliofn - LC / Re: Secondary Market Inventory LOW
« on: July 26, 2017, 10:58:44 PM »
Not to change the subject here, but how do you guys stay away from buying these loans on the secondary market? I know Dr. Everett had issues with it, did not know if others did too.

This loan actually does show up as never late.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=79033857&order_id=151904258&note_id=129371299

Not sure if you guys actually mind notes that have a changed payment date, but I dislike them. Able to weed them out?
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=81406945&order_id=115132190&note_id=129975864

This last one is not as dramatic as the one I saw yesterday. Has the initial bounce from the loan and then the slow retreat back to where his FICO started. I am sure I am not the only one who dislikes those big FICO swings. Not still shows an up FICO.
https://www.lendingclub.com/foliofn/browseNotesLoanPerf.action?showfoliofn=true&loan_id=74654169&order_id=105731054&note_id=120141043

If an automated system could throw such loans out I would absolutely switch to it.

14
Foliofn - LC / Re: Secondary Market Inventory LOW
« on: July 26, 2017, 02:35:43 AM »
I will always find it baffling that people will pay a 5% markup on notes. I actually tossed all my notes on there at 5% markup and have sold a few. I never do that but do think I will start from now on doing it.
I don't doubt the statistics but I buy about $2500 from folio each day and I have seen a significant lack of well priced loans. On a positive note, the lack of available loans has dramatically increased my sales. In fact, yesterday was record day of $15k of sales with healthy mark-ups.

According to LR forum post, LR Folio quit date might have been 7/11, almost two weeks. The quick analysis I did was based on 7/08 and 7/22 Folio listings at noon (I corrected the dates in earlier post that previously mentioned 8/08 and 8/22).

Average YTM moved up from 15.88% on 7/08 to 18.21% on 7/22. I don't monitor Folio trend closely except time to time looking at PeerCube Folio Pricing Overview page at https://www.peercube.com/folionotes/index that lists a few stats for guidance to our users who manually price notes. I am getting back into analyzing Lending Club data again so you might see new posts sharing my findings.

Thanks Anil!
Has it been two weeks since LR quit their FOLIO?
Going to assume that 4.9% is well within statistical norms?
3.5% drop in markup is huge and shows that the amount of loans that were bloating the FOLIO market where not accurately priced to sell for most people looking to buy. I am also going to assume that the YTM average also moved up significantly overall. Not sure if you would have that number. I would assume that most of those notes trimmed out of the market had a YTM from 0-5.
Not sure how close you follow FOLIO and trends but has such a drop happened before? If so, what was the cause then if there was one?

15
Foliofn - LC / Re: Secondary Market Inventory LOW
« on: July 23, 2017, 10:42:11 AM »
Thanks Anil!
Has it been two weeks since LR quit their FOLIO?
Going to assume that 4.9% is well within statistical norms?
3.5% drop in markup is huge and shows that the amount of loans that were bloating the FOLIO market where not accurately priced to sell for most people looking to buy. I am also going to assume that the YTM average also moved up significantly overall. Not sure if you would have that number. I would assume that most of those notes trimmed out of the market had a YTM from 0-5.
Not sure how close you follow FOLIO and trends but has such a drop happened before? If so, what was the cause then if there was one?
There has been encouraging changes in last couple of weeks on Folio. I quickly compared two Folio listings from today (8/22) and 14 days ago (8/08) both were captured about noon.
  • The number of notes listings decline by 30.5% between 08/08 and 08/22 but decline in unique loans listed is only 4.9%. It indicates that while the amount of notes available has declined the variety of loans available hasn't declined much.
  • The average markup declined from +3.90% on 08/08 to -0.34% on 08/22 indicating the newer listings are more reasonably priced to sell than previously.
  • The markup at 75% of listings declined from +7.62% on 08/08 to +2.68% indicating majority of listings have lower markup than previously.
  • The average Ask Price has declined from $31.29 on 08/08 to $29.27 on 08/22 while outstanding principal has almost stayed the same $29.90 on 08/08 to $29.00 on 08/22.
  • Majority of decline has been in notes with Current (30.0%) and Issued (77.2%) status.
For a while, the Folio notes listings were getting too bloated with majority of listings had no reasonable chance of selling. Bloated listings create challenge for buyers who have to shift through lot more notes to find they want to buy. I am sure large amount of such listings were gumming up the systems at Folio and buying services.

I have not paid much attention to the overall amount of loans on the FOLIO market, but was it at nearly 800K? When I was paying attention probably a couple of mounts ago, it was generally around 600-650K.
Sure we all know that what, 90% of the notes on FOLIO is probably incorrectly priced. (Is it higher?) So did it just take the people out who was setting every one of their loans at a markup at let's go with 5%?
I have not seen a drop in quality notes to buy via handpicking.


Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 31