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Messages - nmay2k

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Investors - LC / LC technical issues
« on: October 21, 2016, 09:22:57 AM »
Weird things are happening with LC. 1) no loans released yesterday 6 AM release 2) the bookmarked link did not work this morning and it could not find the DNS server. The resources server was down until 11 minutes after the loan release.

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Investors - LC / Re: Where did all the loans go?
« on: July 26, 2016, 10:31:45 AM »
it's been slow. I haven't had a loan meet my criteria since the 19th. For fractional loans, there are currently 747
A: 352
B: 337
F: 58

top 3 sub grades
A5: 100
B4: 95
A1: 79

I don't remember A1's being so popular before...I guess folks who don't need loans are getting loans?
This appears to be the usual slowness at the end of the month and then things magically pick-up at the start of the month. They are probably holding loans back for the start of the month when new money comes around. 

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Investors - LC / Re: 1247 new loans dropped
« on: July 21, 2016, 02:02:49 PM »
the 7/14 18:00 release was about 2300 loans, 96% of which were accepted between 7/6 to 7/14 (about 200 per day). I am not sure why these loans were held back to be released in one batch on 7/14. Also strange was 40% of these loans were A loans, 20% B, 20% C, & 10% D. A's are usually not that high (A5 was the highest frequency, followed by A4 and A1). I have not really tracked A1 loans, but it seems unusual to have A1s in the top 3 (i guess they found a whole new source of loans). About 67% of these loans are funded to date. About 50% of A loans and 50% of B loans are funded to date and 100% of the C & D loans. This release appears to be targeted for the new money bonus investment deadline of 7/15 perhaps giving everyone a chance who moved money between 7/6 and 7/15 for the deadline to load up on A/B loans. Perhaps best to have the new influx of money go into A loans rather than C loans. So if you are into A1 loans, it was xmas.

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Investors - LC / Re: Does Anyone own Notes from these Loans?
« on: June 30, 2016, 05:52:22 PM »
56140000 for example

You can find loans ending in 4 zeroes on folio and their payments look normal. They appear to be just another loan.


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Investors - LC / Re: Liquidity of Funds?
« on: June 29, 2016, 09:13:09 AM »
9 mo CD is rare, best 1 yr CD is 1.26% and best 11-month CD is 1.27%. Do you think you can do better than that on LC picking loans with 9 to 12 months left? probably. Besides plain savings can get you 1.05% so not sure the CD is worth it (you get $160 for the hassle of dealing with a CD). The issue will be whether you can get all $8000 invested. And the answer is probably not. So transfer $1000 and see if you find find enough loans on secondary with 9-12 months left to invest it all and keep the rest in a high yield savings. Be very picky about the loans you buy on secondary market or else you might as well just let the money sit in savings.

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Investors - LC / Re: Lending Club Site is Down
« on: June 16, 2016, 10:13:48 PM »
I can login but cannot download anything from LC. Tried 3 browsers.

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I do believe they monitor this website very closely....

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Investors - LC / Re: Is LendingClub Broken?
« on: June 14, 2016, 11:31:54 PM »
What would really signal confidence in their underwriting would be for them to buy the remainder of any loan not funded within a certain time frame.

This seems strange to me.  I equate "good underwriting" with an outcome where chargeoffs occur at about the expected rate.  Your scheme would have LC buy loans when they haven't managed the supply/demand balance perfectly.  Managing this balance is one of their jobs sure, but it isn't at all the same as underwriting.
Exactly.  When LC starts buying their own loans, they now have an incentive to manage new loans towards their desired risk preference, not ours.

LC buying loans is bad for the retail investor. They should stick to the p2p only. Once they buy loans, they will buy those loans they think they can sell rather than loans we want. This will be heavily weighted to the D loans. Once you have a large amount of D loans, you want to get rid of them pronto. This means you will cater to the institutional investor who can quickly buy your inventory of risky loans. So if they buy loans they might as well get out of p2p business.

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Investors - LC / Re: Is LendingClub Broken?
« on: June 14, 2016, 11:20:34 PM »
The question I am not seeing answered is what happens to the thousands of borrowers who just say screw it and don't wait for 30 days for LendingClub to list their loan. 

I think the next 30 days are make or break for LendingClub, and for those of you who have had success earning a return on your investment buying notes.  Discover Personal Loans or SoFi, or any others with adequate capital, will end LendingClub if they don't quickly figure out how to fund their backlog of loans.

It is like buying a burger or a car. If you like Mercedes you will buy one and that Subaru because of the stock price. I am not switching to these other platforms as an investor. Didn't like prosper, or SoFi. There is some brand loyalty here. Now Proper has laid off and I do not think they are doing much better since the LC debacle. When you are the leader, you tend to stay the leader in good and bad times. Sure they are going to feel the pain from the 5/9 event. But like anything else, they will learn from it and be stronger for it. It's a setback for sure like the VW emissions issue but they are probably not going to kill them. 

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Investors - LC / Re: Is LendingClub Broken?
« on: June 14, 2016, 11:09:36 PM »
As I've tried to explain here before, I don't look at the earnings report for Jack in the Box before I order a burger.  I've decided that it's a good product, and I consume it.

I understand what you are trying to say but that is a really awful analogy. Your relationship with Jack in the Box ends once you eat the burger. Your relationship when you buy a note from LC might be as long as 5 years.

Ok, so what about buying a SUV with a 5 year loan? Do you check Ford's stock performance before you buy?

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Investors - LC / Re: Retail Loan Availability
« on: June 14, 2016, 11:02:02 PM »
With all the loans not getting funded on the fractional platform, I don't blame LC for giving the whole loan program the first crack at new loans.

There are currently 85% of loans unfunded W loans vs. 15% of loans unfunded f loans. So it's not like the institutional are making a dent in their whole loan program. The reason they switched to whole loans is because they are more desperate to sell them. Selling them as w requires only 1 investor versus a f may more more than 1 investor....So even though it is likely f loans have a better funding record then w(s), they are probably going to continue the trend until they dump all the May loans they own.

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Seems like one has to be committed to buying and reinvesting principal and interest payments until they reach that critical mass of owning enough notes that pay interest to recoup their investment since once you buy a loan and if you wish to liquidate it you would be forced to do so at a discount through Folio. 

Not all loans sold on folio are at a loss. There are people who buy them at a premium. Also if you hang on to them till they are paid-off, there nothing to recoup. It is hard to estimate how many loans are sold on folio at a premium because they may have simply been removed rather than sold.

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Investors - LC / Re: 0 New Notes Today
« on: June 14, 2016, 10:01:44 PM »
Current loan inventory break down. Notice 84% are w, only 16% are f. There are currently no f for 6/11. Also note the oldest w are from 6/9 vs 6/1 of f (perhaps indication of institutional action). The June 13th 18:00 release are the recycled loans from the end of May as well as the 6/14 14:00 (see images below shows release date by accept date count). It does look like they are working off the May inventory from the debacle before they will accept new loan volume. The early May unsold volume (5/10 ~ 734 loans) was recycled on 6/8 6:00 (~3330 loan release) but these appear to be gone from the inventory at the moment. If you filters captured what you wanted in May, because very few new loans are being added in June, your filters probably won't find anything due to the recycle (unless the loan never funded). So perhaps best to have some patience and come back in July. Ironically, 7/15 may be ideal time since it is he end of the bonus period for new cash.








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Investors - LC / Re: 0 New Notes Today
« on: June 14, 2016, 09:23:26 PM »
Hopefully this is temporary.  I can't imagine they would offer (select) customers the 2% bonus deal for depositing (and investing) new funds and then make no loans available to invest in, unless they hope you'll just buy whatever dreck no one else wants.  Maybe the 100+ job openings on their website indicates a shortage of labor for running the operations there.

ding ding ding BINGO!

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Investors - LC / Re: WT*????????????????????
« on: June 14, 2016, 07:33:15 PM »
I think the tide is slowing turning. The secondary market (folio) was hard to compete with. Since June 2nd (~ the low) the folio average sales price mark-up has been steadily rising from 1.62% to 3.1% (so fewer people are liquidating their accounts). So until June 2nd the cash was probably mostly flowing into folio. Now the cash should probably flow to LC if only the loans were there to invest into. I had moved some cash to get some deals on folio but looks like that has dried-up. Not sure how much cash needs to sitting on the sidelines for LC to crank up the volume. But I think they will probably want to dump the loans no one wants first with those desperate to invest their cash quickly and save the good loans for later.

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