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Messages - storm

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31
General Lending Club Discussion / Re: LC Stock Down to $3.66 per Share
« on: January 31, 2018, 05:28:10 PM »
Maybe because us platform investors are taking a good look at our 1099s and shaking our heads at the ever increasing charge-offs and diminishing returns.

32
BlueVestment / Re: BlueVestment server down?
« on: January 21, 2018, 04:51:40 PM »
Seems to be working ok at the moment.

33
Investors - LC / Re: Worst Month Yet
« on: January 14, 2018, 03:45:02 AM »
au88, is this accurate? I believe the 3k limit you are referring to is actually 3k of losses that can be deducted beyond all gains.

In your example above, the first 30k of gains/losses offset, and the next 3k of losses are deductible against ordinary income. Any losses beyond that 3k would need to be carried forward.

Interest from LC is counted like regular income, not capital gains.  You can offset your capital losses only with capital gains.  For example, if au88 made a killing in the stock market this past year and had $5k in gains, he could reduce the amount of carried losses to $25k ($5k + $3k).

34
Thank you, lascott, for crunching these numbers.  I hope you and everyone else here has a much happier new year!!!

Combined ANAR:  8.31%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   15.00%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 40.9 mos
Number of Notes: 6,768
A (0.0%) B (13.0%) C (44.0%) D (21.2%) E (17.2%) F *** (3.5%) G *** (1.0%)
Payments  36 (38.4%) 60 (61.6%)

vs All Accounts: 94.56%
vs Similar Age Accounts: 0.00
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: 0.00

XIRR:  8.74%
XIRR trailing twelve months:  2.42%

35
Foliofn - LC / Re: Folio: Cancel Notes
« on: December 10, 2017, 07:47:39 PM »
On Folio's My Account page, click the little check box to the left of Note ID in the column headers.  This will select all your notes for sale.  Then click the Cancel Order button.

36
Investors - LC / Re: Tax question
« on: November 30, 2017, 07:42:57 PM »
Yes, it is investment income...like interest earned in a savings account.  Charged off loans are treated as capital losses.  Capital gains/losses also apply to any traded loans.  You can deduct up to $3,000 in losses in a single year unless you have gains to offset it.  Anything over $3,000 can be rolled over into the next year.

37
Investors - LC / Re: Dear LC
« on: November 15, 2017, 02:27:53 PM »
From where I'm sitting, LC needs to really improve their underwriting and collection efforts.  My last statement shows 58% of my YTD interest is negated by charge-offs.  I am well diversified in the middle grades.  I would rather have fewer quality low-interest loans to pick from than the garbage they are peddling now.  The ROI guidance is complete fiction.

38
Combined ANAR: 8.37%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   15.05%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio:   38.3 mos
Number of Notes:   6,657

Grades A (0.0%) B (11.2%) C (44.9%) D (22.0%) E (17.2%) F (3.6%) G (1.1%)
Payments  36 (36.6%) 60 (63.4%)

XIRR:  8.78%
Trailing 12 month (TTM) XIRR:  3.07%

Sold off a bunch of late loans and invested in a few new loans.

39
Investors - LC / Re: Excess interest payments
« on: September 21, 2017, 11:58:53 PM »
Paying off an amortized loan is rarely precise.  The pay-off amount greatly depends on what day in the payment cycle the last payment was processed.  Also, many lenders will perform a lengthy review of the loan to make sure all principle and accumulated interest is received before declaring the loan paid.

I suspect the pay-off amount was overestimated, and the borrower was credited the difference after the review, but is not reflected in the example.  I've also seen many loans go late only to be fully paid shortly thereafter.  (It is incredibly frustrating if you do any selling on Folio.)  In that case, my guess is LC cancels the regular monthly ACH withdrawal and schedules a new withdrawal with the pay-off amount or instructs the borrower to mail a check which is processed well after the regular monthly payment is due.  In the meantime, the interest continues to accumulate.

40
Investors - LC / Re: 5 Key Things to Know About Investing at LendingClub
« on: August 20, 2017, 08:33:37 PM »
I think it's because they have nothing good to say. They are in a tough position. They are losing money themselves. They are losing investors, but also can't raise rates or make lending more stringent because there is more competition than there use to be. Nobody is happy with how things are: The investors, lending club, etc. I guess the only people who are happy are those who default on their loans, and get away with it.

Well said.

According to this LC Blog post, things are improving.  Unfortunately for many of us, the loss from the 2015-2016 loans are eclipsing the returns from newer vintages.

41
Investors - LC / Re: 5 Key Things to Know About Investing at LendingClub
« on: August 15, 2017, 03:30:41 PM »
Received it on both my taxable account which I've been pulling out of and my IRA where I'm reinvesting.  Don't think it is targeted.

42
I think we conceded early on in this thread that LC's ANAR was not very accurate, but it is right there when you log in.  It doesn't depend on my bad math and Excel skills.  It is quick to change when returns go up or down though.  XIRR is very slow to show a trend change.  Calculating simple interest from month to month doesn't factor in compounding.  There are pros and cons to all these calculations.  Keep that in mind when judging the numbers.

There are some 2%+ CDs out there.  Probably not a wise idea to lock up money right now if the Fed keeps raising rates.  I agree that the stock market is likely to meet some resistance before going any higher.  Some ETFs like VCLT (Vanguard investment-grade long-term corporate bonds) are paying 4% annualized monthly dividends if you buy and hold and ignore the share price fluctuations.  Not too shabby if you are looking to diversify unless I'm missing something.

43
Storm, your CANAR is almost 9%, and your XIRR is even higher (per your previous post). Out of curiosity, by what standard did you have another really bad month?

I've been doing this for over 9 years, and the ANAR and XIRR are very much imperfect and lagging indicators.  When I annualize my month-to-month numbers and do a 1 year trailing XIRR, my return is closer to 5.5-6%.  Furthermore, my monthly charge-offs are typically 2-3 times the gain I'm making.  I haven't had a negative month yet, but I've come very close.

I haven't completely lost hope, or I would have sold all my notes by now.  6% return is nothing to sneeze at, but looking at the trend plus the high amount of charge-offs are having me re-evaluate this investment.

44
unusual to see many people here winding their accounts down at around the same time. i am as well. something in the air maybe?

My returns have been trending down for about a year now, and just when it looks like it is leveling off, I have another really bad month.  I have a smaller IRA account that I'm still investing in (not reported here), but the returns are going south on it too.  Meanwhile, the DOW reached an all time high today.  Why should I keep my money at LC?

45
Combined ANAR:  8.84%
Weighted Average Interest Rate:   15.12%
Weighted Average Age of Portfolio: 36.4 mos
Number of Notes: 6,624

A (0.0%) B (9.6%) C (44.6%) D (23.2%) E (17.6%) F (3.7%) G (1.2%)
36 (34.7%) 60 (65.3%)

vs All Accounts: 92.22
vs Similar Age Accounts: 0.00
vs Similar Age and WAIR Accounts: 0.00

XIRR:  9.53%


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