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Topics - viking

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31
Interest Radar / Derogatory Public Records 0 (1 over $100)?
« on: April 12, 2013, 03:12:17 AM »
What does "Derogatory Public Records   0 (1 over $100)" mean?
See here: http://www.interestradar.com/loan?LoanID=4277308&NoteID=

32
Do you invest in loans with a "Last Major Derogatory"? If so, under what condition(s)?

33
Interest Radar / Timing of IR Loan Update
« on: March 28, 2013, 06:10:00 PM »
@rev,
As was shown and discussed here http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=801.0 and here http://www.lendacademy.com/lending-club-loans-being-snapped-up-quickly/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sociallending%2Fcnry+%28Lend+Academy%29         
         
Loans are posted on LC at  2 AM (02:00),  6 AM (06:00) , 10 AM (10:00), 2 PM (14:00), 6 PM (18:00) and 10 PM (22:00) PDT.     
         
The graph below shows an example of the number of available loans (Grades A-G) on the LC and IR platforms.
   
         
IR updates the loans every hour, but only between 3 AM and 8 PM. Would it be possible to start update at 2 AM and stop at 10 PM instead so that the loans posted at 2 AM & 10 PM could be available on IR as well (those loans may be gone at 3 AM which is the next update)?         
         
The Graph below shows an example of the number of available loans immediately after LC and IR posts them. I selected an example were the loans were funded quickly.


In this example, the loans were posted on the LC platform between 10:00:17 and 10:01:50 and the loans were posted on the IR platform between 10:04:30 and 10:05:10. However, it appears that the LC loans were actually captured by IR at around 10:03 (because that is when LC had 526 loans available) and there was then approximately a 2 min delay before they were posted on IR . Is this correct? If it will take about 2 min to post the captured data on IR, then it may not be possible to capture and post the data earlier? Otherwise, it would be great if IR could capture and post the data at 10:03 so that as few loans as possible are missed (in the example above, 4 loans were not available to invest in using IR)

As shown in the graphs below, which shows nine examples LC loan posting times at high time-resolution; 3 days and 3 times/day, it should be OK if IR captures the loans at 3 min after the hour.


As can be seen, LC usually has posted the new loans within 1 min (or possible 2 min) after the hour. I am not sure if the API posts them earlier?

In summary:
1. Can IR update at 3 AM and 10 PM as well?
2. IR already updates the loans very quickly after they are posted on LC. However, is it still possible to update IR a little earlier? For example, capture and post at 3 min after the hour?

[attachment deleted by admin]

34
Interest Radar / Vintage Issued between 2013-03 and Today?
« on: March 27, 2013, 05:33:46 AM »
Today is 3/27/13.
I selected Loan Grades A-F and Vintage Issued between 2013-03 and Today.
Only one loan was found (Interest 7.9%)!?

I wasn't not sure if 2013-03 meant 03/31 or 03/01? From the result, it appears to mean 03/31. However why was one loan found?

35
Investors - LC / Effects of Employer = N/A
« on: March 24, 2013, 04:44:14 AM »
I have always thought that self-employed individuals were at a higher risk of default than regular employees and including them in my investments would therefore result in lower returns. With the new IR Customer filters, I run a test of this as self-employed borrowers are usually listed with Employer=N/A.
Here are the results (analysis per this post: http://www.lendacademy.com/forum/index.php?topic=658.msg2999#msg2999)

All D-G Loans


When directly comparing Employer = N/A with Employer Not = N/A, the results are clear; higher Average IRR (9.30% vs 6.60% ) and higher lower bound for IRR (8.40% vs 2.50%) as well as a lower risk/reward ratio (39.7% vs 55.2%). However, because there are relatively few borrowers with Employer = N/A, the results are only marginally better when excluding this group from the total group of D-G borrowers (Av IRR 9.30% vs 9.20%; Lower IRR 8.40% vs 8.30% and Risk/Reward 39.7% vs 40.8%).

Next, I tried a strategy from IR's strategy shop,
D-G Top Score


In this case, the results are marginally better when including the borrowers with Employer = N/A; Same Av IRR (14.20% in both cases); slightly higher lower bound for IRR (10.30% vs 10.20%) and slightly lower Risk/Reward ratio (15.3% vs 15.9%).  Note that because there are only 44 borrowers with Employer = N/A, the standard error is large when trying to analyze this group by itself and the results are therefore unreliable.

(I am a bit surprised that there are were 44 borrowers in the Employer = N/A group; I thought that I had come across at least 10 in the last few months, so I checked IR for the time-period 2012-12 - Today, and only found 7 so I am assuming that my memory must be wrong...)

In summary, at least for the D-G Top Score Strategy, the effects of excluding borrowers with Employer = N/A from the investments seems, surprisingly, negligible!

[attachment deleted by admin]

36
Interest Radar / URL link to IR asks for Login even when Logged in?
« on: March 23, 2013, 02:03:50 PM »
I have created permanent links to IR strategies (in an Excel Spreadsheet). When I click on these links, IR always asks me to log in even if I am already logged in.
Even after I log in again, it only takes me to the analysis page, but without the strategy loaded.

Note that Lending club links from the Excel sheet works fine (LC does not ask me to log in again)

Can this possibly be fixed?

p.s. Copy/paste the link works w/o needing to log in.

37
Interest Radar / No Notes Downloaded at 10:05 AM?
« on: March 19, 2013, 02:04:23 PM »
It appears that IR failed to download the LC loans at 10:05 AM.
I checked a few notes on LC with application times on 3/19/13 between 6 AM and 10 AM but they were not found on IR.
See for example:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=3845737&previous=browse
http://www.interestradar.com/loan?LoanID=3845737&NoteID= (Loan not found: 3845737)
and
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=3703959&previous=browse
http://www.interestradar.com/loan?LoanID=3703959&NoteID= (Loan not found: 3703959)

Anyone else noticed this?

With the rate loans are picked up, the "good ones" in this batch may be gone by 2 PM  :(.
Hopefully IR will DL again at 2 PM.

38
PeerCube / Is there some way of looking up a loan based on Loan ID?
« on: March 15, 2013, 12:54:47 AM »
Is there some way of looking up a loan based on Loan ID?

39
Interest Radar / Discrepancies in Loan Data on IR vs LC!?
« on: March 14, 2013, 01:46:49 PM »
Look at this loan on LC:
https://www.lendingclub.com/browse/loanDetail.action?loan_id=3726085
and on IR
http://www.interestradar.com/loan?LoanID=3726085&NoteID=

LC shows: "Months Since Last Major Derogatory: 52 "
IR Shows: "Last Major Derogatory: N/A"

Which is correct....?

40
With the much lower number of notes available in the last few weeks (I used to see around 1,100 notes total vs around 500 now) I was curious to see how the Number of Available Loans varied throughout the day and night (times are PST):
GRADES A-C:

GRADES D-G:


Note
1. Most loans are posted to the website at 6 AM (06:00) , 10 AM (10:00), 2 PM (14:00), and 6 PM (18:00). However there are two small additions at 2 AM and 10 PM as well (it has been consistent for the few days that I checked).         
2. Usually, the largest fraction of  new loans is posted at 6 AM (which is not surprising since most applicants may apply after work).         
3. As expected(?) the lower grade loans (D-G) are disappearing relatively faster than the higher grade loans (A-C); e.g. between 10 AM and 2 PM, D-G dropped by 73% while A-C dropped by 29% and between 2 PM and 6 PM, D-G dropped by 68% while A-C dropped by 29% .
4. It is interesting that most notes are purchased during the day rather than than in the evening (the rate of decline is much lower after the 6 PM addition). I wonder if this is because the institutional investors are picking up most of the notes during work-hours?

EDIT: I guess that the LC Prime purchases are also happening during work-hours, and this may partly contribute to the fast decay.

41
Suggestions / Can't add Attachments
« on: March 07, 2013, 09:37:31 PM »
I tried to create a new post and wanted to attach a graph (in png format; I then planned to insert this graph as an image).
I added the attachment and clicked on "Post" but got this error (I tried it twice):


An Error Has Occurred!
Cannot access attachments upload path!

42
LC's has several loan attributes available that are not present in their historical data. For examples of those such attributes, see for example IR's "Borrower Credit Information" or PeerCube's " Comprehensive Borrower Details".

Because these extended attributes are not available in LC's history files we cannot filter these attributes and evaluate historical performance.

Are there any existing models that we can we can use that would incorporate these extended attributes in order to reduce the risk?

The only one I am aware of is PeerCube's Bad-Loan Experience Index (http://andirog.blogspot.com/2012/10/lending-club-loan-purpose-default-rate.html). However it is not clear if this model now incorporates any of the extended attributes? I have also not seen how this BLE index is calculated?

Any other models?

43
Interest Radar / Workflow for Selling Notes on FolioFn?
« on: February 23, 2013, 03:48:16 PM »
Using IR, and using all available tools including Collection Alerts, Missed Payments, Loan Status etc., what is your current workflow for finding notes that you want to sell, how do you price them (and how do you enter the notes on FolioFn)?

I am primarily interested to know how people with a large number of notes practically handle this somewhat daunting task.

44
General P2P Lending Discussion / Effect of Payment Plan on Credit Score?
« on: February 17, 2013, 10:26:39 PM »
The main reason for someone to not default on a loan may be the detrimental effect it would have on their credit history & score.

Does anyone know how [much] the credit score is affected by a default vs a payment plan? Does LC or Prosper even report a payment plan agreement to the credit bureaus? (If not, then I am surprised that not more borrowers use this tactic "to beat the system").

Maybe the payment plan borrowers only gets reported at the end of the term if the borrower hasn't paid back in full at that time?

45
Investors - LC / Evaluating Investment Strategies
« on: January 21, 2013, 06:47:32 PM »
We have all heard the expression, "The higher the risk, the higher  the reward". 
       
How do you view this when it comes to investing in LC Notes?   

Let us first consider some possible parameters:
When investing in stocks investors often consider, for example, the ROI (or IRR), Risk/Reward ratio and Sharpe ratio:

ROI: Is the total return on investment
IRR: Is the internal rate of return and takes into consideration when money was invested. This allows comparison with other investments, such as a CDs and Bonds.

Risk/Reward ratio: In case of Notes, the risk is that the borrower defaults on the loan or pays less than expected (e.g. on a payment plan). The reward is basically the interest rate minus fees (annually 0.46% for 60 months loans and 0.70 for 36 months loans) .
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/riskrewardratio.asp#axzz2Ie4jA3Yi

Sharpe Ratio: The Sharpe ratio tells us whether a portfolio's returns are due to smart investment decisions or a result of excess risk. The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance has been. It is defined as SR= (Rp-Rf)/Sp, where Rp=expected portfolio return, Rf= risk free return (e.g. Bank account), and Sp= Portfolio standard deviation= Portfolio Standard Error*sqrt(N), where N is the number of notes in the portfolio.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/sharpe_ratio.asp#axzz2Ieg8kkYj

Next, let us consider these parameters when investing in different loan grades. I used Interest Radar for the statistics below;
Quote
Loan #   Interest   Loss %   Std Error   IRR (α=.05)     ROI     Av IRR   Risk/Reward   Sharpe Ratio   Grade
20443     7.50%        1.80%      0.20%       4.3% - 5.0%     5.70%    4.65%      26.01%               1894              A
29635     11.70%      3.10%      0.20%       6.7% - 7.6%     8.60%    7.15%      27.88%               4433              B
19199     14.60%      5.00%      0.40%       7.3% - 8.7%     9.60%    8.00%      35.66%               2078              C
12251     17.30%      6.40%      0.50%       8.2% - 10.2%   10.90%   9.20%      38.28%               1594              D
5896       19.50%      8.10%      0.80%       8.0% - 11.3%   11.40%   9.65%      42.81%               734               E
2311       21.60%      9.50%      1.60%       7.0% - 13.2%   12.10%   10.10%    45.20%               243               F
572         22.80%      13.00%    3.30%       1.8% - 14.6%   9.80%     8.20%      58.51%               45                G
Where I calculated: ROI=Interest-Loss; Av IRR=(Lower IRR+Upper IRR)/2; Risk/Reward=Loss/(Interest-LC Fee*); Sharpe Ratio=(AV IRR-2%**)x sqrt(Loan#)/Std Error
*) LC Fee = 0.58%; **) Bank Interest =2% (This is my minimum return)

We see that ROI and Av IRR gives the same relative order of the Loan Grades, with F loans giving the highest returns and A loans giving the lowest return. As we would have expected from the statement "The higher the risk, the higher  the reward", the risk/reward ratio is just the opposite, with A loans having the lowest risk/reward while F (and G) loans having the highest risk/reward. Note that G loans have the highest Risk/Reward, but only has a mediocre return. Thus, the higher the risk/reward of G loans does not  mean higher reward (IRR). .

Next consider the Sharpe Ratio; It is highest for B and second highest for C loans, which both have a higher ratio than the A loans which had the lowest Risk/Reward ratio. This is because there are many more B loans in the testing portfolio and the volatility (as given by the standard deviation) is therefore lowest for the B group. In other words, with a B Notes portfolio we are "more certain" that we will get an IRR around 7.15% than an IRR of 10.10% with a portfolio of E notes.


Next I will consider a more sophisticated strategy than simple portfolios based on Loan Grade. Again, I have used Interest Radar and used variations of their proprietary IR01/IR04 score strategy named D-G Top Score (The First strategy is the original strategy):
Quote
Loan #   Interest   Loss %   Std Error   IRR (α=.05)      ROI     Av IRR   Risk/Reward   Sharpe Ratio       IR01              IR04
1113        19.50%     3.10%      1.80%      11.0% - 18.1%   16.40%   14.55%     16.38%               233                 400+              L
2172        19.10%     3.00%      1.20%      11.9% - 16.6%   16.10%   14.25%     16.20%               476                 400+              L, M
3042        19.20%     2.80%      1.00%      12.7% - 16.5%   16.40%   14.60%     15.04%               695                 400+              L, M, U
3342        19.20%     2.80%      0.90%      12.6% - 16.3%   16.40%   14.45%     15.04%               800                 400+              L, M, U, H
                              
2562        19.40%     3.20%      1.00%      12.4% - 16.5%   16.20%   14.45%     17.00%               630         390-399 & 400+       L
7107        18.80%     4.50%      0.70%      11.1% - 13.8%   14.30%   12.45%     24.70%               1259        390-399 & 400+      L, M
11579      18.60%     4.90%      0.50%      10.9% - 13.0%   13.70%   11.95%     27.19%               2141        390-399 & 400+      L, M, U
14990      18.40%     5.40%      0.50%      10.3% - 12.1%   13.00%   11.20%     30.30%               2253        390-399 & 400+      L, M, U, H

In this case the highest return (IRR) is from the the 3rd strategy down, which gives IRR=14.60% (in green). Interestingly, this strategy also has the lowest risk/reward ratio of 15.04% (Red)! Thus, when we apply a more sophisticated strategy, the higher return does not necessarily mean an increased risk/reward ratio! The only "disadvantage" of this strategy is that the Sharpe Ratio =695 is not the highest (highest is 2253 in blue for the last strategy, with IRR=11.20% and with twice the risk/reward ratio), but it is still in the top 50% of the strategies. Furthermore, a Sharpe Ratio of more than  3 is usually considered Excellent (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/sharpe_ratio.asp#axzz2Ieg8kkYj).

Another thing to consider when choosing a strategy is the availability of Notes meeting the criteria and other parameters that I may not have touched on.

How do you determine which strategy is the "best"?

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