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Messages - jpildis

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31
Investors - LC / Re: FICOs not really updated
« on: October 17, 2016, 08:35:54 AM »
This is different... not a single note (out of over 2000) shows a change.  LC updated the 'Last Updated Date' but not the actual scores.  Trust me on this... I've been re-arranging my portfolio based on monthly FICO updates for the last 3 years.  This month is unique.

Have you reported this problem to LC?
I've tried that before and it always becomes a fool's errand.  The LC folks I've talked to in the past were very nice but their grasp of what we, as active investors, need out of their data has been quite uninspiring.

32
Investors - LC / Re: FICOs not really updated
« on: October 15, 2016, 08:56:53 AM »
May depend on where you look.
Latest FICO is included in multiple in multiple downloadable files and various online displays.
Think I saw something similar when I was doing Folio research and there were/are staleness issues.
So yeah, as the good Sergeant Esterhaus said "Let's be careful out there".

I'm basing this on downloading the note details on my holdings.  The Last_FICO_Updated field shows 10/13/16 but the FICOs are almost all the same as they were before 10/13.

33
Investors - LC / FICOs not really updated
« on: October 14, 2016, 01:58:02 PM »
Here's a good one... LC is shoing that new FICOs we're pulled on 10/13 but I cannot detect any score changes.  Be careful out there.

34
Interest Radar / Re: I subscribed annually via paypal, how do I cancel?
« on: October 14, 2016, 09:26:09 AM »
Sorry for your issues.  Please email me at jon@bluevestment.com... we'll get your BV account fixed and/or cancel your IR paypal subscription.  As for a lack of loans, I belive that's a market-wide issue unless your buying grade A and B notes.

35
Investors - LC / Re: 2015 & recent loan quality
« on: October 14, 2016, 09:23:33 AM »
I believe all of the bad press about LC has, at the margins, impacted borrowers willingness to stay current on loans.  The vast majority of borrowers wouldn't change their behavior but it only takes a few percent to really move the dial. Furthermore, I'm guessing all of the turmoil has slowed down LC's responsiveness to deal with EFT issues and slow payers.

36
Investors - LC / Re: Prosper ending relationship with Folio
« on: October 02, 2016, 09:29:48 AM »
My Folio transaction volume (mainly buying) is $25-30k per month.

37
Yes, the analysis includes all payments including recoveries. What value or actionable conclusions do you expect to make by segmenting payments by type?

Does this analysis include recoveries to date?  It would be interesting to see what portion of the return was generated from recoveries.

I think it's just interesting.  Recoveries are somewhat opaque and, from my limited analysis, only appear 12+ months after the charge-off.  I think the timing of cash flows is critical to setting expectations for potential investments.  Buying 31+ late loans at a steep discount is kind of like playing roulette... many of your bets will have a zero return and several will become 2,3,4 or 5 baggers.

38
Does this analysis include recoveries to date?  It would be interesting to see what portion of the return was generated from recoveries.

39
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: September 04, 2016, 09:12:52 AM »
So I just got my August statement and on page 2, I find these values:

- Recoveries $321.02
- Recovery Fees ($57.78)

This is great but when I look at my pages and pages on 'Non-Performing Notes', I only see $20 worth of current month recoveries.  WTF? Where can I see the detail and why is there a discrepancy?

On mine, the only activity I can see under 'Non-Performing Notes' is activity on notes that are late but not yet charged off.  At the very end of the statement there is a section titled 'Miscellaneous' that shows recoveries and fees.  If I look at a note number that had a recovery, I can find that note listed as Charged Off in the Non-Performing section....but it doesn't show as having activity.

My guess is that since the note is officially written off, the payment isn't reflected as reducing the outstanding balance of that note (which is what is shown in the Non Performing Notes section).  Once the note was written off the remaining value went to zero in our portfolios (and we write that amount off as a capital loss on our taxes).  Then the Miscellaneous recoveries are just added back into our account like a cash deposit (and we pay tax on a capital gain from a zero basis).

Ahh... I never looked in the miscellaneous section as I do a ton of Folio trading and it's full of those.  I don't understand why LC wouldn't put that information in the non-performing section but there's a long list of goofy stuff they do so I'll just add this to the list.

Thanks for answering!

40
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: September 03, 2016, 11:11:47 AM »
So I just got my August statement and on page 2, I find these values:

- Recoveries $321.02
- Recovery Fees ($57.78)

This is great but when I look at my pages and pages on 'Non-Performing Notes', I only see $20 worth of current month recoveries.  WTF? Where can I see the detail and why is there a discrepancy?

41
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 30, 2016, 12:59:41 PM »
What do you think "Days Since Payment" field on Folio browse notes represent? Have you looked at the range of values Days Since Payment column on Folio can hold?

How do you find out notes that haven't made payment for over 100 days?


The market for sub 600 FICO, 31+ day lates where a payment has not been made for over 100 days, is basically a 88-91% markdown.  Let me know if you have any anecdotes that refute that.
Last Payment Date on the notes download and it's listed on the browse screen in Folio

It's the days since the borrow made an on-time / in-full payment.  I took a non-valid sample of the 5 highest discounted notes and it tied-out.

42
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 29, 2016, 08:27:49 AM »
How do you find out notes that haven't made payment for over 100 days?


The market for sub 600 FICO, 31+ day lates where a payment has not been made for over 100 days, is basically a 88-91% markdown.  Let me know if you have any anecdotes that refute that.
Last Payment Date on the notes download and it's listed on the browse screen in Folio

43
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 08:48:38 PM »
In general, you have much better chance of selling 31+ days delinquent note at ~86+% discount, about the point when post sale gains approach zero, not accounting for time value of money.

I can show you my 31+ late note that got sold at only 67% discount this past week -- noteid=71485595.

If you guys want to sell at 90% discount, go right ahead.  However, as a trader, I'd ask why?  It's only showing your lack of understanding of how the market works.

The market for sub 600 FICO, 31+ day lates where a payment has not been made for over 100 days, is basically a 88-91% markdown.  Let me know if you have any anecdotes that refute that.

44
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 08:44:19 AM »
LendingClub recovery rates for that bucket would suggest that 90 percent is awfully high. Unless you're worse than average on risk, seems that's a big difference. Isn't charged off notes recovery rate like 5 percent?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

Well, 90% is where the Folio 'ask' meets the invisible 'bid'.  There's lots of inventory between 85-90% discounts that don't move so I guess the people "who have figured it out" don't have the capital to snap-up the under-priced inventory?  I've watched the extremes of the folio pricing for quite awhile and 31+ Lates have the most consistent pricing.  It's been 89-91% discounts for 2 years.

45
Investors - LC / Re: Recoveries of Charge-Offs
« on: August 28, 2016, 08:27:35 AM »
Seems like your behavioral bias from avoiding defaults is costing you money.

That remains to be seen.  I generally wait until the note is over 100 days late and I can generally get my 10% recoup (regardless of vintage, term and grade).  I'm not seeing recovery rates exceeding 14% on any durable basis so, yes, I may be leaving a few percentage points on the table.

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