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Messages - edward

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Investors - LC / Re: LC lowers rates gain
« on: February 04, 2015, 06:15:24 PM »
Interest rates down or stable, and charge off rates up across the board. Yea, us.  :(

Investors - LC / Re: Pleasant surprise
« on: February 02, 2015, 06:59:51 PM »
"mistakes I made before I knew anything (I mean the first time I thought I knew everything)"

I think that pretty much describes all of us!  :)

Investors - LC / Another example of "late note" that is not late
« on: January 14, 2015, 07:51:27 PM »

Looking at my late notes, I was surprised when I looked at the payment history of this note. It showed recent payments but also a notation that the same payments were not received. I sent LC an email on this, and received a phone call back last evening.

They said it was an error, and was the result of an incorrect late fee being assessed when the payments had in fact been received. I was told that when the borrower didn't pay the late fee their computer system showed the loan as being late. But they assured me that the error would be corrected with the overnight computer processing run.

Well the note is still showing late a day later and the payments are still there along the "payment not received" notation.

Just a reminder to those who automatically sell their late notes to be sure and look at the actual history of the note to ensure it's actually late.

I also note that it's on a "payment plan", which is probably just the regular LC way of trying to draft the account later when a payment isn't received. I bet the borrower is going to be surprised when an unexpected bank draft of his incorrectly flagged "late" account occurs.

Interest Radar / Re: Interesting breakdown
« on: January 09, 2015, 05:38:17 PM »
Can you share a little more with us about your note selection filters? Are you buying only certain grades, terms, or loan purposes; or is your only criteria 380+? Are you using any custom filters, such as number of inquiries, percent of credit used, debt-to-income, etc.? All these will have an impact on your results.

Also, I know the owner of the site, "Rev" on this forum, used to update his ranking criteria, but then he has been pretty quiet on this forum for a long time and hasn't shared much of how he keeps his filtering up-to-date with LC changes. Your notes do look seasoned, and if you take out the low statistical sample of 380-389 notes, the other IR01 rankings don't seem to have as much spread of loss.

As to IR04, I developed many filters a year ago where the low/medium/high don't correlate either, and many time the notes rated IR04 Low actually perform the worse. I think that's a function of the interaction among my other filter criteria. I haven't used IR to actually purchase notes in about a year so my comments are not based on very recent experience.

Hopefully, those with perhaps a better statistical background, or more current use of IR can be of more help. Feel free to contact me PM if you want to discuss in more detail or more privately.

Investors - LC / Re: Credit inquiries
« on: January 05, 2015, 09:50:47 PM »
Do you view the better than expected results (i.e., below your regression line) for 4 & 5 inquiries as anything special, or just random variation/noise? I'm not advocating that as a filter, simply noticed it.

May just be a personal feeling, but a $15 investment going into charge-off isn't nearly as bad as a $25 investment. I've used New Jersey Guy's advice and now folio notes make up about 1/3 of my portfolio. True, it's a lot of time, but with Interest Radar it's not bad. But more importantly, I found it to be an excellent investment in learning more about how notes behave.

P2P-Picks / Re: LendingClub Picks Paused Pending API Changes
« on: July 05, 2014, 02:53:59 PM »
Thank you, Bryce!

BlueVestment / Re: P2P Picks through BlueVestment
« on: July 01, 2014, 04:41:14 PM »
Bryce, I know you've already answered this negatively, but I'll add my voice to the request to run your site as best you can and get whatever loan data you can, so long as you can run your filters. I'd much rather get a better quality note, even if there are less of them and even if they pay less interest, so long as I can use your formula to better model risk. But in any event, thank you so much for all you've done for all of us. Darn shame I had just got comfortable with your site and the BlueVestment interface and added more money to my LC retirement account a week before this entire debacle occurred.

BlueVestment / Re: P2P Picks through BlueVestment
« on: July 01, 2014, 12:49:37 PM »
I sent in my complaining email and only got to have a short conversation with the LC representative when he called back (I was at lunch). He is supposed to call me back later at a better time. But he basically blamed Bryce for not being willing to change his approach to getting the data. I'll update this post when we have our later conversation. But I'm not initially happy with LC's stance of simply blaming Bryce for LC's changes.

Update: Mike at LC listened very nicely to my concerns, and said (1) the API/CSV/website do update at different times, albeit it only about 30 seconds apart, (2) the change to update the CSV file only every minute was to help ensure LC website customers that the third-party sites weren't getting all the good loans, and (3) lots of good changes are coming. I explained that it doesn't seem fair to me that all sources of note information don't update at the same time, that third-party sites do a much better analysis of loan datapoints than does LC, and that it was my viewpoint from the comments made on this forum from numerous members that it seems LC is at war with third-party sites particularly in that every time LC makes a file or field name changes, most of the third-party sites crash. I encouraged LC to embrace the third-party sites, provide them more advance notice of upcoming changes, and to increase communication with all members through more frequent blogs on LC's own site. Didn't seem to do anything to help get Bryce back up and running, but he sure was familiar with Bryce and LendAcademy and the issues involved. Kept trying to get me to use LC automatic investing and just pick a diversified grade of notes, and I told him I would consider it--when LC's own site offered as much help, advice, and risk-mitigating strategies as the third-party sites did.  Sorry Bryce, I tried.

Isn't the monitoring of FICO drop a feature available on your site, Peer Cube?

P2P-Picks / Re: Prosper Picks Active
« on: June 30, 2014, 05:00:57 PM »
Bryce, just confirming that you will be getting back into Lending Club with P2P-Picks at some time in the future? I really miss your service.

Investors - LC / Re: Anyone Else Notice
« on: June 27, 2014, 12:35:43 PM »
Thanks, Fred, for that reminder. The time from loan posting to first payment just keeps getting better and better.   :(

Investors - LC / Re: Anyone Else Notice
« on: June 26, 2014, 10:56:47 AM »
Welcome to the forum. It's not unusual for it to take 2-4 weeks for notes to be approved and be issued. Then it's a month after issue before they make their first payment. We all had your same feeling when we started, just hang in there.

Wonder why the due date suddenly changed by one day?

Interest Radar / Re: CRITICAL: Strategy Shop IRR Reporting Error?
« on: June 22, 2014, 12:23:14 PM »
With the recent upset by LC on the API/CSV/screen scrapping debacle, all the third-party sites have been affected to varying degrees. In the case of IR, it's information is now pretty useless in terms of developing strategies, although if you've developed strategies on your own that work well, you can still use them (that's what I've had to do). The strategies you specifically mentioned are simply the base from which you should develop your own--they are quite limited in their scope and don't take advantage, in general, of the great power within IR's filters; although some toward the bottom are better at using more filters. For the 18 months I've been watching them, I don't believe they have changed significantly. They were probably developed 2+ years ago or so, I imagine while the interest rates on LC were quite high. All the IRRs on IR are now basically useless until LC resolves its information flow, if it ever does. After watching LC break the information links a couple of times, I began to include the IRR within my filter name, so if the links broke again, at least I'd have a reasonable idea of the real IRR; such as "36 CD 400+LM 1525 12.5" which would translate to 36 months, grades C and D, IR01 of 400+, IR04 of low and medium, 1525 notes in the history, with an IRR of 12.5. All my filters only include credit card and debt consolidation. If you want, PM me and I'll share some of my better filters to get you by until this mess clears up.

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