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Messages - edward

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181
Interest Radar / Re: Vintage Issued between 2013-03 and Today?
« on: March 28, 2013, 06:29:56 PM »
rev,
On another section of this forum, NSR mentioned that at least one of the LC files hasn't updated for a while, and thus, no new loans are showing. I've not seen any new loans on IR for a couple of days for my filters either. Have you noticed a problem with the LC files that's causing this seeming lack of new notes?

182
Investors - LC / Re: Effects of Employer = N/A
« on: March 24, 2013, 07:32:01 PM »
Occupation rather than employer would probably be better still. Some here have noted that employment at a hospital still doesn't tell us if you are a doctor or a clerical employee. I suspect that occupation would make an interesting analysis.

183
Investors - LC / Re: Effects of Employer = N/A
« on: March 24, 2013, 08:57:15 AM »
What if N/A doesn't always mean self-employed? Could there be people who just don't want to list it, can't list it for security reasons, are retired, etc?  Every piece of research helps us decide on which filters to use, and Employer=N/A has always been of interest to me. Thank you for doing the work and posting your findings.

184
Interest Radar / Re: IR01 and IR04 Question
« on: March 24, 2013, 01:02:03 AM »
I am looking forward to the Employer information research/filters you can provide. Many investors seem to have strong feelings for/against certain Employer name entries (both whether it is N/A as well as certain specific employer names), and having better statistical insight will help all of us. In summary, what's the real risk differences of N/A, or military, or police/corrections, etc? Are certain specific employers better/worse risks than others? Even if you don't decide to release the specific data, at least including it in the IR01 score will be great!

185
Interest Radar / Re: Warning Signs not included in IR01/IR04
« on: March 22, 2013, 07:46:52 PM »
Laslow,

The short answer to your question is "we don't know", because the IR01/IR04 criteria is known only to "rev" the developer of the site and a great contributor on here. All of the items you mention are bound to be considered by some as worthy of concern and many of them will have been previously discussed on Lend Academy blogs and elsewhere.

I'm fairly new to Lending Club (3 months) and Interest Radar (2 months). But I did LOTS of study before beginning my investing. Lend Academy blogs are one of the best sites to learn from and many experienced investors offer invaluable advice. Please remember there is a difference between an investment philosophy based on statistics vs. those based on intuition or gut feelings or personal preferences; and I think its best to use both.

I use Interest Radar exclusively as my analysis tool for its transparency (I can play with the data), ability to rate all loans on IR01, and then add IR04 for credit card and debt consolidation loans. Since I am so new, I can't vouch from personal experience for IR's long term realiability, but others on this blog have mentioned that their default rate is lower when choosing better rated IR01/IR04 notes, and IR's reports on their site show that as well.

All investors have their own personal feelings about what they will or won't invest in, and I certainly have those as well. You will find numerous conversations In Lend Academy blogs about those type of judgments and the experiences investors have with them. I find that using the analysis filters on IR and seeing what the actual data tells me about certain assumptions is very important to me. Of course there were new data elements added in December 2012 for which there is no history--and I will leave it to others with far more experience and other resources to comment on their reliability as appropriate filtering elements. With the custom filters on IR, you can filter out many items, but based strictly on the information on IR, we really don't know the statistical history of some of those criteria as necessarily being true indicators of reduced default or increased yield.

Personally, I put great stock in the underlying past experience of a borrower as reported on their credit report--what is their history of paying their bills, number and timing of defaults and delinquencies, etc. Another filter I use is that the monthly payment shouldn't be more than 15% of the monthly income. Interst Radar's data also tells me that people with mortgages have better returns with lower default rates (they have experience making monthly payments over a long period of time and someone was willing to loan them a big amount of money) as well as those with larger incomes (who can more easily service their debt payments).  I also only invest in credit card and debt consolidation--that's the biggest loan purposes on LC and the only loans that have an IR04 score. I know I lose the opportunity to loan to non-mortgage holders and in loans for other purposes--that's ok with me, it's just a choice I've made.

When I use IR's analysis capabilties and really play around with multiple filters, I find combinations that don't make sense to me personally, but the results tell me they have better outcomes than others (just make certain you have a sufficiently large sample size.) I'm learning with every blog I read by more experienced investors why certain things make sense from the history of consumer borrowing, then I go try them out on IR and Nickel Steamroller. The more I play with data, the more I learn the great interrelatedness between all the variables, and I try to understand which variable is really driving a change in result (i.e., looking for causal relationship not just a casual one.)

Some investors are not looking strictly for low default rates, they are looking for the highest yields, and will let the sheer volume of their notes handle the effects of defaults for them. And there are those investors who hold their notes for some period of time and have their own process to sell them, capture the returns, reinvest and move on. Try and figure out the best strategy for you--or some combination of them.

I know this is a very long answer, but perhaps it will help you as you choose your own path. Lastly---read, read, and read some more. The more knowledge you gain about P2P, consumer lending risk characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions that will affect your return, the more confident you will be in your overall strategy and processes.

186
Interest Radar / Folio Asking Prices 30-40% over value?
« on: March 19, 2013, 07:05:27 AM »
When I review my portfolio on IR, I see average asking prices on Folio listed as 30-40% above the current value of some of my notes. I understand that those are ASKING prices and don't indicate that anyone is actually buying them at those prices, but does anyone have any experience of actually selling their notes for that much over value? That's more than the total expected return (it seems to me).

187
Investors - LC / Re: Portfolio Printout from Web Page?
« on: March 18, 2013, 09:01:59 PM »
http://smartpeerlending.com/

This site also offers portfolio analysis. You can sign up for free.

188
Interest Radar / Re: Importance of 1 point change in IR01 score
« on: March 16, 2013, 12:43:45 PM »
Thanks rev,
Answers my question. The goal is to get your portfolio toward the higher IR01, and then within the IR01 scores toward the lower IR04 sub-ratings if you are investing in notes for credit card and debt consolidation. I understand that you chose a simple method of 10 points to divide groups. Thanks! You're always improving your site and that makes me feel good about using it, and its value to us as investors. 

189
Interest Radar / Importance of 1 point change in IR01 score
« on: March 15, 2013, 09:51:46 PM »
rev,

Is any 1 point change in IR01 score equally important? Does it make any difference in whether that change is from 381 to 382 versus a change from 402 to 403? Does the 1 point change take on any more significance when it crosses your 10 point groupings, that is, is 389 to 390 any more significant than it just being a 1 point change? Love your site. Thanks.

190
Interest Radar / Re: Our office will be closed...
« on: March 10, 2013, 10:26:42 PM »
jsmarthur,

By the word "conforming", do you mean those with better IR01/IR04 scores? If so, your comment about them being much better performing validates rev's scoring, which makes me feel even better about my choice to use IR as you do.

191
Thank you. I just haven't been around long enough to have to discount notes to sell, yet....

192
DanB,

For us less experienced lenders, can you help clarify your comments about the cost differences in selling a $25 vs $100 note and why you choose one over the other? Thank you for helping educate us.

193
Interest Radar / Re: What is the IR04 score for?
« on: March 03, 2013, 10:34:56 PM »
I filter out any High IR04 score. The Filter Breakdown feature on IR shows them to have higher rates of default along with a higher standard deviation, both bad aspects in my opinion.

194
General P2P Lending Discussion / Re: Lending Club or Prosper for IRA?
« on: March 03, 2013, 10:18:37 PM »
Like you, I've been in both platforms for 2 months, but I chose LC for my IRA. I wanted LC's significantly higher volume in order to invest my money within an acceptable amount of time considering my strict set of filters.

195
Interest Radar / Re: New Feature: Custom Filters
« on: February 23, 2013, 03:16:16 PM »
Rev,

I would also like to have the ability to filter based on the percentage of the loan payment to monthly income, i.e., not more than 15%, etc.

But really loving the custom filters. While more an emotion response than possibly supported by statistics, I filter out any "120 day lates." When I remove the filter to look at what it caught, I always see lots of other problems.

Looking forward to more of your great work.

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